Market evolution: Palm oil (CN 15119099) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in palm oil and its liquid fractions (excluding crude and industrial uses, Customs code 15119099) between 2015 and 2025. The period was characterised by a dramatic transformation of the EU's trade position. The bloc shifted from a relatively balanced trader to a significantly larger and more dependent importer, while its export capacity eroded substantially. This structural change was driven by surging imports from Southeast Asia, a collapse in exports to key partners, and a concurrent escalation in unit prices. The result is a market with increased import reliance, heightened concentration, and greater exposure to external supply shocks.

The Import Surge: Scaling Up with Southeast Asian Supply

The EU's imports of refined palm oil underwent a massive expansion in both volume and value over the decade, fundamentally altering the scale of its market presence.

A dramatic expansion in import volumes and value

Between the first and last year of the period, the quantity of palm oil imported into the EU increased by 59.3%, from 373,766 tonnes to 595,238 tonnes. The value of these imports grew even more sharply, rising by 162.4% from €272.7 million to €715.5 million. This disparity indicates that while the EU imported more physical product, it also faced significantly higher prices, with the average import price per tonne increasing by 64.8%.

Indonesia solidifies its position as the leading supplier

The structure of the EU's import partnerships underwent a significant consolidation. While Malaysia remained a major supplier, its growth was eclipsed by Indonesia. Imports from Indonesia surged by 336.7% in value, from €76.1 million to €332.3 million, making it the top partner by value in the final year. This rise was complemented by the emergence of the United Kingdom as a significant trade partner post-Brexit, with import values growing by 829.7%. Conversely, imports from Papua New Guinea collapsed by 99.9%.

Italy and the Netherlands lead the intra-EU import demand

Within the EU, the growth in imports was led by a few key member states, indicating concentrated demand centers. Italy's imports increased by 261.7%, reaching €275.1 million. The Netherlands, a major logistical hub, saw imports grow by 652.3% to €123.7 million. Notably, Ireland's imports rose from €1.6 million to €63.2 million, representing a 3,815.8% increase and the largest relative growth among top importers.

Erosion of Export Capacity and Diversifying Destinations

In stark contrast to the import surge, the EU's exports of refined palm oil contracted sharply, signalling a loss of competitiveness or a strategic reorientation away from this trade.

A pronounced decline in export volumes

The volume of palm oil exported by the EU fell by 58.4% over the period, from 157,554 tonnes to just 65,603 tonnes. This represents a fundamental contraction of the bloc's role as a re-exporter or processor for third-country markets. Despite this, the value of exports declined by a more modest 12.4%, from €114.1 million to €100.0 million, as rising unit prices partially offset the volume loss. The average export price per tonne more than doubled, increasing by 110.4%.

The collapse of exports to Russia and the rise of the UK as a key partner

The geopolitical landscape of EU palm oil exports shifted dramatically. Exports to the Russian Federation, previously a top destination valued at €47.1 million in 2015, plummeted by 88.2% to just €5.6 million by 2025. This loss was partly offset by a consolidation of exports to the United Kingdom, which saw a 33.8% increase to €64.5 million, making it the undisputed primary export market. Exports to Ukraine also showed strong growth, increasing by 867.4%.

The Netherlands and Germany remain the primary, though declining, exporters

Within the EU, the Netherlands and Germany were the largest exporters, but both saw their shipments decline. Dutch exports fell by 44.8%, from €63.4 million to €35.0 million, while German exports decreased by 16.4%. In contrast, Sweden and Spain emerged as growth points for intra-EU export activity.

Deepening Import Reliance and Heightened Market Vulnerability

The divergence in import and export trends has fundamentally altered the EU's trade autonomy for this product, leading to greater net import reliance and increased market concentration.

Net import reliance climbs sharply, exposing the EU to external risks

The most direct measure of this shift is the net import reliance ratio. This indicator increased by 36.4% over the period, reaching 48.7% in 2025. This means nearly half of the refined palm oil available on the EU market is now sourced from outside the bloc, up from about a third in 2015. This increasing dependence coincides with a rise in trade intensity, which grew by 33.9%, confirming that the EU market is becoming more intertwined with global trade flows for this commodity.

Supplier concentration increases for both imports and exports

Market concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), intensified on both sides of the trade balance. The import HHI increased by 6.3% to 4,179, indicating a moderately concentrated market becoming slightly more reliant on fewer partners. The export market showed even greater concentration, with its HHI rising by 22.3% to 4,327. This suggests that while EU import demand is being consolidated around major Asian producers, its export activity is also focusing on a narrower set of destination countries.

Price volatility and detected shocks highlight supply chain fragility

The trade data reveals pockets of significant volatility, particularly with emerging or smaller partners. For instance, imports from Singapore displayed a coefficient of variation (CV) of 1.39, indicating highly unstable trade flows. The system detected a notable price shock event involving Singaporean imports in 2018, with an abnormal shift of 2,388% and a high abnormality score of 4,547. Such volatility underscores the potential fragility of supply chains that extend to these secondary partners, which, while currently small, could become more important in the future.

Conclusion

The period from 2015 to 2025 marked a pivotal decade for the EU's refined palm oil market. The bloc has become a significantly larger importer, with demand growing by 59% in volume and 162% in value, overwhelmingly supplied by Indonesia and Malaysia. Concurrently, its export capacity has halved, with the loss of the Russian market being a key factor. This has led to a stark increase in net import reliance, which now stands at nearly 50%. The market has also become more concentrated and exposed to price volatility from certain trading partners. These trends point towards a market with reduced strategic autonomy and heightened vulnerability to supply disruptions or price spikes originating outside the EU, a dynamic likely influenced by both commercial shifts and evolving sustainability regulations.