Market evolution: Other polyolefins (CN 390290) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in CN 390290 — a residual category encompassing polymers of propylene or other olefins in primary forms, excluding polypropylene (390210), polyisobutylene (390220), and propylene copolymers (390230). The heading bundles several sub-products, most notably polybut-1-ene (39029020), A-B-A block copolymers of polystyrene (39029010), and a broader catch-all category (39029090).

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU has remained a net exporter of these specialty polyolefins, yet the trade surplus has narrowed considerably. At the same time, production volumes and values have grown, the geographic orientation of both imports and exports has shifted, and price dynamics have diverged between inbound and outbound flows. The general overview dashboard provides the full time series underlying the analysis below.

1. A Resilient Exporter with a Narrowing Surplus

Export growth has been solid in both value and volume

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 390290 rose from €319.3 million to €388.8 million (+21.8% in value) and from 125,242 tonnes to 154,517 tonnes (+23.4% in volume). The volume increase slightly outpaced the value increase, implying a marginal decline in average export prices (from €2,550/t to €2,516/t, a −1.3% change). Export prices peaked in 2018 at €3,057/t before receding, suggesting that the period of elevated petrochemical prices in the late 2010s has not fully persisted in outbound flows.

Import growth has far outstripped export growth

EU imports surged much more sharply over the same period: value rose from €191.8 million to €298.0 million (+55.4%), while volume grew from 73,293 tonnes to 94,824 tonnes (+29.4%). Crucially, import prices rose by 20.1% (from €2,617/t to €3,142/t), meaning the value increase was driven by both higher volumes and higher unit prices — a pattern not observed on the export side. The import value peaked at €318.4 million in 2022, coinciding with the post-pandemic commodity price surge.

The trade surplus has eroded significantly

The EU's trade balance in CN 390290 declined from €127.5 million in 2015 to €90.8 million in 2025 (−28.8%). It dipped as low as €30.7 million in 2022 before partially recovering. The net import reliance metric moved from −249% to −39% (84.2% change), indicating that while the EU remains a net exporter, its relative export advantage has substantially diminished. This convergence reflects rising import demand and/or increasing foreign competitiveness in this product category.

Source: General Overview

2. A Geographic Reorientation of Trade Partners

Imports: the United States dominate, while Israel and South Korea surge

The United States has been the EU's primary source of imports throughout the period, rising from €108.7 million (2015) to €165.6 million (2025), a 52.3% increase. This dominance is consistent and reflects the strength of the US specialty chemicals sector, particularly in polybutene and other niche polyolefins.

More striking, however, is the explosive growth of two suppliers:

• Israel grew from €10.4 million to €37.5 million (+259.5%), making it the third-largest import partner by 2025.
• South Korea rose from €5.1 million to €12.7 million (+149.5%).

Conversely, two traditional partners saw steep declines:

• Mexico collapsed from €12.4 million to just €1.9 million (−84.5%), a near-total withdrawal from this trade flow.
• The United Kingdom fell from €19.4 million to €9.9 million (−48.8%), likely reflecting post-Brexit trade friction and supply chain reconfiguration.

Exports: China rises to the top, Singapore becomes a major hub

China became the EU's largest export destination by 2025 (€100.2 million, up from €57.0 million, +75.7%), overtaking the United States (€55.8 million, +5.5%) and the United Kingdom (€43.0 million, roughly flat at −0.6%). The most dramatic shift, however, is Singapore, which surged from €6.4 million to €44.0 million (+591.8%). Singapore likely serves as a re-export hub for Asian markets, and this growth may reflect expanding downstream demand in Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region.

South Korea, a once-significant export destination (€29.0 million in 2015), declined sharply to €10.7 million (−63.3%), suggesting either increased domestic production in Korea or a shift in sourcing patterns.

The top partners dashboard provides a full country-by-country view.

Concentration has shifted differently for imports and exports

Import concentration (by value) remained broadly stable, with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) moving from 3,484 to 3,400 (−2.4%). This reflects a moderately concentrated import market, where the US remains dominant but with some diversification toward Israel and Korea.

Export concentration, by contrast, increased from 978 to 1,215 (+24.2%), indicating that exports became more concentrated geographically — driven by the growing share of China and Singapore. The concentration dashboard shows this evolution.

Inside the EU: Belgium anchors trade, the Netherlands become a major importer

Among EU Member States, Belgium consistently dominates both imports (€113.4M → €130.3M) and exports (€103.0M → €109.6M), reflecting its role as a petrochemical hub with major port infrastructure (Antwerp). Germany and France also play substantial and growing export roles (Germany: +120.2%, France: +62.2%).

The most striking internal shift is the Netherlands, which saw imports explode from €11.2 million to €81.2 million (+622.9%) while its exports fell from €80.7 million to €46.1 million (−42.9%). This swing — from a net exporter to a net importer — may reflect the repurposing of Dutch port infrastructure as an import gateway, or a shift in the production footprint within the EU. The reporters dashboard details these internal dynamics.

3. Domestic Production Expands, but Trade Intensity Declines

EU production has grown significantly

According to the available production data, EU production of CN 390290 grew from 1.52 billion kg in 2015 to 2.01 billion kg in 2025 (+32.9%). In value terms, the increase was even more dramatic: from €1.44 billion to €3.05 billion (+111.4%). The fact that production value more than doubled while output grew by a third points to a significant increase in the average unit value of domestic production — consistent with a shift toward higher-value specialty polyolefins. The production volumes dashboard provides further detail.

Trade intensity and export propensity have fallen

Despite strong production growth, the EU's trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) declined from 96.6% to 76.5% (−20.8 percentage points). Similarly, export propensity (exports as a share of production) fell from 95.8% to 67.3% (−29.8 percentage points).

This apparent paradox — growing production yet declining trade openness — suggests that a larger share of EU production is now absorbed by the internal EU market rather than being exported to non-EU partners. It could also indicate that new production capacity has been oriented toward domestic or intra-EU consumption.

Belgium is the EU's most specialised producer

The specialisation analysis confirms that Belgium is by far the most specialised EU producer of CN 390290, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.683 and an RCA of 5.31. Belgium accounts for 44.9% of EU production but only 8.5% of total EU exports, indicating that much of its output is channelled through intra-EU trade or used domestically. Sweden (RSCA 0.23) and Lithuania (RSCA 0.21) are the next most specialised, though with much smaller market shares. At the other end, Bulgaria, Malta, Romania, and Denmark show strong negative RSCA values, indicating net import dependence.

Conclusion

Over the decade to 2025, the EU has maintained its position as a net exporter of other polyolefins (CN 390290), but the landscape has shifted considerably. Import growth (+55.4% in value) has far outpaced export growth (+21.8%), compressing the trade surplus by nearly 30%. Geographically, the US remains the dominant import source, but Israel and South Korea have emerged as fast-growing suppliers, while the UK and Mexico have receded. On the export side, China has consolidated its position as the top destination, and Singapore has become a major hub — likely channelling EU production into the broader Asian market. Price dynamics have diverged: import prices rose 20% while export prices barely moved, putting pressure on margins.

Domestically, EU production has expanded robustly in both volume and value, with a notable shift toward higher-value products. However, trade intensity has declined, suggesting that more of this production is serving intra-EU demand. Belgium remains the linchpin of the EU's position in this market, with the highest specialisation and the largest trade flows. The rising concentration of exports and the volatility observed in key bilateral relationships (notably with South Korea) warrant continued monitoring, as they indicate increasing exposure to partner-specific disruptions.