Market evolution: Other manufactured tobacco (CN 240399) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in product CN 240399 — a residual category covering chewing tobacco, snuff, tobacco powder, extracts and essences, and other manufactured tobacco and substitutes, excluding cigars, cigarettes, smoking tobacco, homogenised/reconstituted tobacco, and products falling under heading 2404 (e.g., e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches). The analysis covers the period 2015–2025 at annual frequency, drawing on the EU Trade Dashboard.

Over this decade, the EU has remained a formidable net exporter of products under CN 240399, with a persistent and large trade surplus. However, the period has been far from linear: EU exports experienced an extraordinary boom between 2019 and 2021 — with total export values peaking at roughly €2.54 billion — before correcting sharply to €676 million by 2025. Meanwhile, import values have nearly tripled, driven largely by a surge in chewing tobacco and snuff shipments. The result is a market that, while still structurally dominated by EU exports, has undergone significant shifts in partner geography, product composition, and pricing dynamics.

1. A Booming Export Sector Tested by Boom-and-Bust Cycles

1.1 The EU remains a dominant net exporter with a structurally large surplus

Throughout the entire period, the EU's trade balance in CN 240399 has been strongly positive. In 2015, the surplus stood at €248 million; by 2025 it had risen to €617 million — a increase of 148.7%. At its peak, the surplus reached approximately €2.50 billion (coinciding with the 2020–2021 export surge). The EU's net import reliance was deeply negative throughout (starting at −1,076% and ending at −161%), confirming that the EU is a consistent and substantial net exporter — though its relative export dominance has moderated over the decade.

1.2 Export volumes and values surged to extraordinary peaks before correcting

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic boom-and-bust in EU exports. Export values rose from €268 million in 2015 to a maximum of approximately €2.54 billion — a near tenfold increase. Export volumes followed a similar trajectory, climbing from 15,829 tonnes to a peak of 79,006 tonnes. By 2025, however, both had retreated sharply: values settled at €676 million and volumes at 39,164 tonnes. This implies a three-phase cycle: a build-up phase (2015–2018), an explosive expansion (2019–2021), and a correction phase (2022–2025). The correction brought export volumes back to roughly 2.5 times their 2015 level — still a significant expansion in absolute terms.

1.3 Export prices have been highly volatile, while import prices have trended upward

Unit prices in this market have fluctuated dramatically. EU export prices ranged from a minimum of €15,010 per tonne to a peak of €38,751 per tonne — a spread of more than 2.5× — before settling at €17,257 per tonne in 2025 (+1.8% vs. 2015). This suggests that the 2020–2021 boom was partly driven by a price spike (possibly linked to product mix shifts or supply chain disruptions during and after the COVID-19 pandemic), which unwound as volumes and pricing normalised. By contrast, import prices have roughly doubled, rising from €7,106 per tonne in 2015 to €14,672 per tonne in 2025 (+106.5%), suggesting either a shift towards higher-value import products or broader cost inflation in supplying countries.

2. Geographic Reorientation: New Partners Replace Traditional Ones

2.1 Export destinations have undergone major reshuffling

The ranking of the EU's top export partners has shifted considerably over the decade. Norway has remained the single largest destination throughout, with exports growing from €172 million in 2015 to €281 million in 2025 (+63.6%) — reflecting the enduring demand for snuff and related products in the Nordic market (particularly Swedish-style snus). Beyond Norway, however, the landscape has changed profoundly:

Japan, once a significant destination (€9 million in 2015), has all but disappeared from EU exports (€1 million in 2025, −87.9%). Meanwhile, Türkiye, Switzerland, Serbia, and Iran have emerged as fast-growing markets. Iran, in particular, shows explosive growth (+2,191.6%), though from a very low base. Ukraine also featured prominently during the boom years, with exports peaking at €187 million, before falling back to €11 million — one of the most volatile bilateral relationships in the dataset, with a coefficient of variation of 1.31 on the export side.

2.2 The import landscape has shifted, with Switzerland and Türkiye gaining prominence

On the import side, the most dramatic changes involve Switzerland and Türkiye:

The collapse of imports from the United Kingdom (from €7 million to €0.5 million, −92.3%) is likely linked to Brexit, which reclassified UK–EU trade from intra-EU to extra-EU flows and introduced customs barriers. A major price shock in UK imports was detected in 2020 (abnormality score of 16.1, +161% price shift), consistent with the Brexit transition period. Conversely, the extraordinary growth of imports from Türkiye (€53,000 to €16 million) and Pakistan (€11,000 to €1.4 million) reflects the emergence of new supply chains for manufactured tobacco products, particularly from South and West Asia.

2.3 Export diversification has increased while import sourcing has become more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) tells a contrasting story for imports and exports:

The sharp decline in export concentration means EU exports have become meaningfully more diversified across partner countries — no longer as reliant on one or two dominant buyers. This likely reflects the boom-period expansion into new markets (Türkiye, Serbia, Iran) and a partial decline in the relative share of Norway. On the import side, however, concentration has nearly doubled, indicating that a smaller number of suppliers — most notably Switzerland and Türkiye — now account for a growing share of EU imports. This rising import concentration could represent a modest supply-chain vulnerability, although the EU's deep net-export position limits its overall exposure.

3. A Two-Speed Product Market: Snuff and Chewing Tobacco Diverge from Other Manufactured Tobacco

3.1 CN 240399 comprises two distinct sub-products with very different trajectories

The heading CN 240399 bundles two sub-categories:

• 24039910 — Chewing tobacco and snuff ("nasal tobacco")
• 24039990 — Other manufactured tobacco, tobacco substitutes, powder, extracts and essences (excl. chewing tobacco and snuff)

Their trade dynamics have diverged markedly over the period, particularly on the import side.

3.2 Imports of chewing tobacco and snuff have surged, overtaking other categories in value

The most dramatic structural shift in EU imports has been the explosive growth of 24039910 (chewing tobacco and snuff):

Chewing tobacco and snuff imports grew nearly tenfold in volume (from 175 tonnes to 1,715 tonnes) and over fifteenfold in value (from €2.3 million to €34.6 million). By 2025, this sub-product accounted for the majority of EU import value, overtaking the broader "other manufactured tobacco" category, whose import volume actually declined from 2,669 tonnes to 2,289 tonnes. This suggests growing EU consumer demand for oral tobacco products — potentially linked to the rising popularity of snus-adjacent products and nicotine pouches that straddle the boundary with heading 2404. The unit import price for chewing/snuff also increased substantially (from €12,930/t to €20,155/t), indicating premiumisation or supply constraints.

3.3 Export composition is dominated by 24039990, which experienced the full boom-bust cycle

On the export side, the vast majority of value and volume resides in 24039990:

24039990 exports grew from 13,516 tonnes to 37,804 tonnes in volume and from €90 million to €510 million in value — but these headline figures mask the boom-bust cycle described earlier. Volume peaked at 77,538 tonnes and value at €2.39 billion (both in 2021), driven largely by extraordinary shipments to Japan (which peaked at €1.64 billion in a single year before collapsing to €1 million). The unit price for 24039990 exports also reflected the boom: it rose from €6,684/t in 2015 to a peak of €35,442/t before settling at €13,498/t — still double the 2015 level. By contrast, 24039910 exports have been remarkably stable in value (€178 million to €166 million) while declining in volume (from 2,313 tonnes to 1,360 tonnes), implying a near-doubling of the unit export price (from €76,970/t to €121,785/t) — consistent with high-value, niche snuff products.

3.4 Sweden anchors EU production, while several member states show strong export specialisation

EU production of CN 240399 has been relatively stable in volume terms, moving from 90 million kg in 2015 to 96 million kg in 2025 (+6.7%), while production value has declined slightly from €1.19 billion to €1.05 billion (−11.8%). Sweden stands out as the dominant producer and exporter, with €351 million in exports in 2025 (and a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.357) — reflecting its deep tradition in snus production. Denmark (RSCA 0.387), the Netherlands (RSCA 0.354), and Germany (RSCA 0.228) also display strong specialisation in this product. At the other end, Italy, Spain, Finland, Austria, and Estonia show very low or near-zero specialisation, consistent with their limited engagement in smokeless tobacco manufacturing.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 240399 over 2015–2025 is defined by three overarching dynamics. First, the EU has consolidated its position as a dominant net exporter, though the extraordinary export boom of 2019–2021 — which saw values peak at roughly ten times their 2015 levels — has given way to a correction that nonetheless leaves exports well above their pre-boom baseline. Second, the geographic landscape of trade has shifted profoundly: traditional partners like Japan and the United Kingdom have receded, while Türkiye, Switzerland, Serbia, and Iran have gained ground on the export side, and Switzerland and Türkiye have become major import suppliers — a reorientation partly driven by Brexit and partly by evolving supply chain strategies. Third, a clear product-level divergence has emerged: chewing tobacco and snuff (24039910) have become the fastest-growing import category, while broader manufactured tobacco (24039990) dominates exports and bore the brunt of the boom-bust cycle. Looking forward, the continued growth of oral tobacco imports, the concentration of import sources, and the price premiumisation observed across both sub-products are likely to shape the next phase of this market's evolution.