Market evolution: Other diols (CN 290539) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in diols other than ethylene glycol and propylene glycol (CN 290539) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading encompasses several sub-categories, most notably various forms of butanediol (1,3-butanediol, conventional and bio-based 1,4-butanediol), a surfactant-type specialty diol (2,4,7,9-tetramethyldec-5-yne-4,7-diol), and a residual bucket of other acyclic diols. The period was marked by structural shifts in trade flows, a dramatic reorientation of the EU's competitive position, and significant price and supply volatility linked to global events.

1. From net exporter to net importer: a structural reversal in the EU's trade balance

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in CN 290539 underwent a fundamental transformation. What was once a sector running a comfortable trade surplus turned into one characterised by persistent and widening deficits.

1.1. Import volumes and values surged while exports contracted

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 290539 more than doubled in quantity (from 81,042 t to 193,920 t, a +139% increase) and more than doubled in value (from €135 million to €287 million, +112%). Over the same period, export quantities fell by 31% (from 77,448 t to 53,465 t) and export values by 14.5% (from €174 million to €149 million). The trade balance swung from a surplus of €39 million in 2015 to a deficit of –€138 million in 2025.

Source: General Overview

1.2. Net import reliance flipped from negative to positive

The net import reliance indicator captures the EU's structural dependence on external supply. In 2015, it stood at –9.3%, confirming the EU was a net exporter. By 2025, it had risen to +3.6%, placing the EU firmly in net-import territory. The peak was reached around 2022–2023, when import reliance likely exceeded 17%. This shift signals that EU domestic production, while still growing in absolute terms (volume up 21% from 605,200 t to 730,000 t between 2015 and 2025), has not kept pace with rising demand.

1.3. Unit price dynamics reveal a two-speed market

Import and export prices moved in opposite directions. Average export prices rose by 24% (from €2,250/t to €2,787/t), suggesting that EU exporters maintained or increased their pricing power, likely by focusing on higher-value or specialty grades. Average import prices, however, declined by 11% (from €1,669/t to €1,479/t), consistent with increased competition from large-scale petrochemical producers abroad offering commodity-grade diols at lower cost. The growing price gap between exports and imports (€2,787/t vs. €1,479/t in 2025) suggests a progressive product specialisation: the EU increasingly exports premium products while importing bulk commodity diols.

2. Geographical reorientation: rising Asian and Middle Eastern supply amid shifting partnerships

The geographical composition of EU trade in CN 290539 changed dramatically. Traditional partners lost ground while new suppliers, particularly from Asia and the Middle East, surged.

2.1. China, Saudi Arabia and Taiwan emerged as dominant import sources

The most striking change on the import side was the explosive growth of Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers:

China's import value rose nearly sevenfold, making it the second-largest supplier by 2025. Saudi Arabia's growth was even more dramatic (+1,400%), reflecting the Kingdom's strategy of building integrated downstream petrochemical capacity and exporting higher-value-added derivatives. Taiwan also experienced a fivefold increase. The United States remained the largest single supplier but its growth rate was comparatively modest.

The concentration of import sources (HHI) fell from 3,521 in 2015 to 2,201 in 2025 (–37.5%), confirming a significant diversification of supply — albeit one that introduced new concentration risks from different regions.

2.2. EU export markets reoriented towards Türkiye and Asia

On the export side, the picture was one of decline in most traditional markets:

Exports to the United States, the UK, Japan, and Taiwan all contracted sharply, likely reflecting competitive displacement by local or Asian producers. China remained relatively stable. Türkiye doubled its intake, consistent with its growing role as a manufacturing hub bridging Europe and Asia. The export concentration (HHI) remained relatively stable and low (from 1,055 to 955), indicating that EU exports were already diversified across many partners.

2.3. Germany anchored intra-EU production, while new member states ramped up imports

Within the EU, Germany dominated exports, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the EU total (€100 million in both 2015 and 2025). However, several other EU members saw sharp import increases, notably Italy (+747%), Spain (+353%), Belgium (+244%), and Greece (+321%). This suggests that demand for diols grew fastest in Southern and Western European industrial clusters, likely driven by downstream applications in polyurethanes, resins, and coatings.

3. Supply shocks, price volatility, and the BDO dimension

The 2015–2025 period was punctuated by episodes of sharp price volatility and supply disruption, reflecting both structural shifts in the butanediol sub-segments and exogenous shocks such as the 2021–2022 energy crisis.

3.1. The 2021–2022 energy crisis triggered extreme price spikes

The volatility data reveals that several trade flows experienced high variability over the period. The most significant supply shocks were:

The 2021–2022 period coincided with the global energy crisis, when European natural gas prices surged to record levels. As many diols are produced from petrochemical feedstocks, the cost shock propagated directly into trade prices. The 86% spike in unit import prices from the United States in 2022 — by far the largest supplier — likely reflected both feedstock cost pass-through and tightened global supply. Similarly, the doubling of export prices to Türkiye in 2021 suggests EU producers passed on higher production costs.

Among individual partners, Hong Kong (CV = 2.04), India (CV = 0.98), Malaysia (CV = 0.95), and the UK (CV = 0.85) stood out as highly volatile import sources, while Vietnam (CV = 1.34) was the most volatile export destination. These high coefficients of variation suggest episodic or opportunistic rather than stable, long-term trade relationships.

3.2. Conventional 1,4-butanediol drove import growth; bio-based BDO saw wild swings

The product-level segment breakdown reveals that the import surge was largely driven by one sub-product: conventional 1,4-butanediol (CN 29053928).

*No data reported for these codes in 2015; they first appear in 2016.

Conventional 1,4-butanediol (29053928) imports exploded from 10,594 t in 2016 to 100,889 t in 2025, making it the single largest imported sub-product by volume and value (€103 million in 2025). This product is a key intermediate for tetrahydrofuran (THF), polybutylene terephthalate (PBT), and polyurethane applications — sectors with strong demand growth in Europe. Bio-based 1,4-butanediol (29053926) followed a more erratic trajectory: imports surged to 31,872 t in 2016, fluctuated between 15,000 and 32,000 t, and settled at 16,390 t in 2025, with highly volatile pricing (peak import price of €3,567/t in 2022 vs. €941/t in 2016).

On the export side, conventional 1,4-BDO (29053928) collapsed from 24,850 t in 2016 to just 2,526 t in 2025 (–90%), confirming that the EU lost its competitive position in this commodity segment. Exports of bio-based 1,4-BDO also fell to minimal volumes (158 t in 2025), suggesting that European bio-based capacity has not scaled to serve export markets.

3.3. The EU is consolidating as a specialty diol exporter while losing commodity ground

The data paints a clear picture of structural differentiation. The residual category of "other acyclic diols" (CN 29053995), which includes a wide range of specialty and fine-chemical diols, remained the EU's strongest export segment at 49,730 t and €139 million in 2025 — albeit with declining volumes (–23% vs. 2015). Its average export price of €2,804/t was nearly double its import price of €2,080/t, confirming premium positioning. Meanwhile, the EU became a massive net importer of commodity butanediol: in 2025, it imported over 100,000 t of conventional 1,4-BDO but exported only 2,500 t. This asymmetry reflects the relocation of large-scale BDO production to the Middle East and Asia, where feedstock advantages and economies of scale have made EU-based plants uncompetitive for commodity grades.

Conclusion

The EU trade market for other diols (CN 290539) experienced a fundamental structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The EU shifted from being a net exporter (–9.3% net import reliance) to a net importer (+3.6%), driven by a near-tripling of import volumes against declining exports. This reversal was powered primarily by the explosive growth of conventional 1,4-butanediol imports from China, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, while EU producers lost competitiveness in commodity BDO segments. At the same time, the EU consolidated its position in higher-value specialty diols, where export prices consistently exceeded import prices. The 2021–2022 energy crisis amplified existing vulnerabilities, triggering sharp price spikes across major trade flows. Going forward, the EU's position in this market appears bifurcated: strong in specialty niches, but increasingly dependent on external supply for commodity-grade diols — a dependency that diversified geographically but did not diminish in scale.