Market evolution: Oil and gas casing (CN 730429) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in seamless casing and tubing for oil and gas drilling (CN 730429) over the period 2015–2025. The product is a critical input for the upstream oil and gas sector, and its trade patterns closely mirror global energy market cycles, exploration activity, and shifts in geopolitical relationships. Despite the energy transition agenda, the EU remains a major producer and net exporter of these specialised steel products, with exports consistently exceeding imports by a wide margin. However, the decade reveals a structural contraction in EU export volumes alongside a diversification — and growing vulnerability — of import supply chains. The analysis is based on general trade data, partner-level flows, intra-EU specialisation, and volatility indicators.

1. A decade of contraction: oil cycles, pandemic shock, and uneven recovery

The period 2015–2025 was marked by three distinct phases for EU trade in CN 730429: a post-2014 oil-price collapse trough, a sharp pandemic-era disruption, and an incomplete recovery characterised by persistent volume weakness.

1.1. The oil-price collapse set the tone for the first half of the decade

EU exports peaked at an estimated €1,400 million before declining to around €649 million by 2016, reflecting the global downturn in upstream investment triggered by the 2014–2016 oil price crash. Export volumes fell from 523,154 tonnes in 2015 to 387,525 tonnes at their trough, and the overall trade balance narrowed from €852 million to €565 million in the same period. Export prices also compressed, falling from €1,869/t in 2015 to €1,256/t at their lowest point, consistent with weak demand and global overcapacity in tubular goods.

1.2. The 2020 pandemic amplified the energy downturn

The COVID-19 pandemic coincided with a historic oil demand shock and a brief episode of negative WTI prices. EU export volumes fell to approximately 387,525 tonnes in 2020 — the lowest in the decade — and export value dropped to €649 million. Production volumes also declined sharply, from 965 million kg in a peak year to 382 million kg at the trough, indicating that EU mills significantly curtailed output. Import volumes also contracted, falling to 35,318 tonnes — their lowest level — as drilling activity worldwide was suspended.

1.3. The post-2020 recovery brought higher prices but not higher volumes

From 2021 onward, rising oil prices and renewed exploration activity supported a recovery in export value to €1,400 million by the estimated peak year, before settling at €763 million in 2025. However, export volumes never fully recovered: at 428,981 tonnes in 2025, they remained 18.0% below the 2015 starting point. By contrast, unit values recovered more strongly, with 2025 export prices at €1,780/t — only 4.8% below the 2015 level — suggesting that the EU retained pricing power in higher-specification segments even as volumes lagged.

2. Geographical reorientation: from the MENA basin to the Americas

One of the most striking features of the decade is the geographic reconfiguration of both the EU's export destinations and its import suppliers, reflecting broader shifts in global oil and gas production geography.

2.1. North America has consolidated its position as the EU's primary export market

The United States remained the EU's largest single export destination throughout the period, accounting for €342 million in 2025 (up 3.6% from 2015) despite significant volatility — at its peak, US-bound exports reached €697 million. Canada also grew in importance, rising from €45.6 million to €72.0 million (+58.1%). Together, the US and Canada absorbed nearly 55% of EU exports by value in 2025, up from roughly 38% in 2015. This consolidation reflects the sustained shale-driven drilling activity in North America and the premium placed on high-specification seamless tubulars for unconventional wells.

2.2. Traditional MENA markets have declined sharply

Several long-standing Middle Eastern and North African export markets contracted dramatically over the decade:

These declines are partly explained by the rise of regional competitors (notably Chinese mills) and by national content policies in Gulf states that encourage local manufacturing. Kuwait is the notable exception: EU exports surged from €12.7 million to €102.8 million (+708.1%), likely linked to specific major project procurement cycles.

2.3. Brazil and China have emerged as dominant import suppliers

The most dramatic shift in the import side has been the rise of Brazilian and Chinese suppliers:

Brazil's rise is closely linked to the expansion of its own pre-salt oil fields and the growth of local producers (notably Tenaris/Vallourec's Brazilian operations) that export surplus production to the EU. China's surge reflects the massive expansion of Chinese seamless pipe capacity and aggressive pricing. By contrast, imports from the United States fell by 81.4% (from €14.4 million to €2.7 million), and from Argentina by 69.5%, indicating a structural reorientation of EU import supply chains toward emerging-market producers.

2.4. Intra-EU production is geographically concentrated

Within the EU, Austria and Italy dominate export activity, with Austria's shipments rising from €227 million to €288 million (+27.0%) and Italy's from €123 million to €236 million (+92.1%). These two countries accounted for nearly 69% of EU extra-EU exports by value in 2025. By contrast, France's exports collapsed from €237 million to €37 million (−84.4%) and Germany's from €157 million to €18 million (−88.3%), reflecting a loss of competitiveness or strategic reorientation by major producers in these countries. Specialisation data confirms Romania (RSCA 0.87, RCA 14.45), Italy (RSCA 0.55, RCA 3.43), and Austria (RSCA 0.53, RCA 3.22) as the most specialised EU producers in this product.

3. Growing concentration and rising supply-chain vulnerability

Behind the headline trade flows lie structural changes in market concentration and supply-chain risk that carry important implications for the EU's energy security.

3.1. Market concentration has intensified on both sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 1,488 to 2,282 (+53.3%) between 2015 and 2025, while export concentration rose from 1,485 to 2,432 (+63.7%). The import HHI crossed the 2,500 threshold associated with highly concentrated markets, driven by the growing dominance of Brazil and Mexico (together accounting for over 62% of imports by value in 2025). On the export side, the rising HHI reflects the increasing dominance of Austria and Italy and the exit or decline of formerly significant exporters such as France and Germany.

3.2. Import prices have diverged sharply from export prices

A notable feature of the 2021–2025 period is the growing gap between EU import and export unit values. Import prices reached €2,065/t in 2025 — the highest in the decade — while export prices stood at €1,780/t. This price divergence may reflect a shift in the composition of imports toward higher-specification products, or the pricing power of a smaller number of suppliers in a concentrated import market.

3.3. Price shocks have been detected in key bilateral relationships

The volatility analysis identifies several significant price shock events:

The US import price shock in 2017 (a +514% shift) stands out as an extreme outlier, possibly linked to specific contract structures or tariff-driven re-routing. The Saudi and Kuwait shocks on the export side coincide with periods of rising oil prices and intensified drilling campaigns, when procurement urgency can drive sharp price increases.

3.4. The EU's structural trade surplus masks growing import dependence

Despite maintaining a large trade surplus throughout the period (€609 million in 2025), the EU's net import reliance metric improved from an extreme negative value to −166%, indicating that imports now represent a more meaningful share of apparent consumption than in 2015. The export propensity fell from 171% to 83% of production, and trade intensity from 160% to 86%, both suggesting that the EU's tubular goods sector is becoming more inward-looking even as it remains a net exporter. Meanwhile, EU production value grew by 21.6% (from €1.04 billion to €1.27 billion) while volumes fell by 22.9%, confirming a shift toward higher-value-added production — a positive structural signal, but one that coexists with growing import dependence for volume needs.

Conclusion

The EU trade in CN 730429 over 2015–2025 tells the story of a mature industrial sector navigating multiple headwinds: two oil-price downturns (2015–2016 and 2020), a global pandemic, and the long-term structural pressure of the energy transition. Despite these challenges, the EU has maintained its position as a net exporter, and its producers have shifted toward higher-value, higher-specification output — evidenced by rising production values and stable-to-increasing unit export prices. However, the data also reveals causes for concern: export volumes remain well below their pre-2015 levels, the geographic concentration of exports in North America has increased, and import supply chains have become both more concentrated and more dependent on a small number of emerging-market suppliers (notably Brazil and China). The intensification of market concentration on both the import and export sides, combined with the detection of significant price shocks in key bilateral relationships, suggests that the EU's tubular goods market is more exposed to supply disruption than the headline surplus figures might imply. As global energy investment patterns continue to evolve — shaped by shale economics in North America, pre-salt development in Brazil, and capacity expansion in China — EU policymakers and producers will need to monitor these structural shifts carefully to ensure the resilience of supply chains critical to the bloc's energy infrastructure.