Market evolution: Nitrile compounds (CN 2926) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in nitrile-function compounds (customs code 2926) over the 2015–2025 period. The product heading encompasses acrylonitrile (292610), dicyandiamide (292620), and a broad category of other nitrile-function compounds (292690), among smaller sub-categories. The analysis draws on EU trade data reported at annual frequency, covering imports, exports, partner composition, production dynamics, and market concentration. Over the decade, the EU's nitrile-compound market has undergone a structural transformation characterised by shrinking trade volumes, rising unit values, and a significant reorientation of trade partners — driven in part by geopolitical shocks and the post-COVID industrial cycle.
1. A declining market in volume terms, with surging unit prices
The most striking feature of the EU's nitrile-compound trade over 2015–2025 is the simultaneous contraction of traded volumes and the sustained increase in unit prices. Both imports and exports have seen their physical quantities fall sharply, while prices have risen by roughly half — a pattern consistent with a combination of supply-side restructuring, feedstock cost inflation, and a shift toward higher-value product mixes.
1.1 Import volumes fell by nearly 40%, while values declined only modestly
EU imports of nitrile-function compounds decreased from 209,259 tonnes in 2015 to 126,798 tonnes in 2025, a drop of 39.4%. Over the same period, import value fell only 11.4%, from €503.7 million to €446.4 million. The divergence is explained by a 46.7% increase in the average import price, which rose from €2,399/t to €3,519/t. Import value peaked at €764.1 million during the period, indicating that the market experienced a significant cyclical upswing (likely in 2022, coinciding with post-pandemic restocking and energy-driven chemical price inflation) before retreating.
1.2 Export contraction was even steeper, widening the trade deficit
EU exports declined more sharply than imports. Export volumes fell 56.5%, from 169,209 tonnes to just 73,522 tonnes. Export value dropped 34.3% to €268.0 million, while the unit export price rose 51.0% to €3,642/t. The EU's trade balance in nitrile compounds swung from a deficit of €95.6 million in 2015 to €178.4 million in 2025. At its worst, the deficit reached €382.6 million, though in one year the EU briefly achieved a small surplus of €16.0 million — likely around 2018–2019, before the pandemic disrupted trade flows.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports — value (€M) | 503.7 | 446.4 | −11.4% |
| Imports — volume (kt) | 209.3 | 126.8 | −39.4% |
| Imports — price (€/t) | 2,399 | 3,519 | +46.7% |
| Exports — value (€M) | 408.1 | 268.0 | −34.3% |
| Exports — volume (kt) | 169.2 | 73.5 | −56.5% |
| Exports — price (€/t) | 2,411 | 3,642 | +51.0% |
| Trade balance (€M) | −95.6 | −178.4 | −86.6% |
1.3 Domestic production volumes declined sharply even as production value held up
EU production data (in kilograms) shows an even more dramatic volume contraction: output fell 45.0%, from approximately 1.07 billion kg in 2015 to 587 million kg in 2025. Production value, however, rose 6.1% from €1.17 billion to €1.24 billion, implying a near-doubling of the average production price. This suggests that European producers have reduced physical output while benefiting from higher selling prices — a pattern consistent with capacity rationalisation, energy cost pass-through, and a possible shift toward higher-margin speciality nitrile products.
2. A dramatic reorientation of trade partners
The 2015–2025 period witnessed a fundamental reshuffling of the EU's key trading partners for nitrile compounds, with some traditional suppliers losing ground dramatically while others — particularly in Asia — gained market share. This realignment reflects a combination of Brexit, sanctions against Russia and Belarus, shifting global production capacity (notably in China and South Korea), and evolving demand patterns.
2.1 Imports: the decline of the UK and Russia, the rise of China and South Korea
Among import partners, the most dramatic changes affected the United Kingdom and Russia:
| Partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 126.2 | 24.9 | −80.2% |
| Russian Federation | 66.2 | 7.0 | −89.4% |
| Belarus | 28.6 | 2.2 | −92.4% |
| United States | 60.7 | 32.4 | −46.7% |
| China | 97.1 | 151.3 | +55.8% |
| Korea, Republic of | 9.3 | 86.7 | +837.0% |
| India | 51.7 | 58.4 | +13.0% |
The UK's collapse as an import source likely reflects both the post-Brexit trade friction and the restructuring of chemical supply chains. Russia and Belarus saw their exports to the EU essentially collapse — a trend accelerated (and likely completed) by the sanctions regime imposed after 2022. In contrast, South Korean imports surged by an extraordinary 837%, rising from just €9.3 million to €86.7 million, making Korea the fourth-largest supplier by 2025. China consolidated its position as the single largest import source, growing from €97.1 million to €151.3 million. This Asian pivot suggests that global nitrile-compound production capacity has shifted eastward, and that the EU has increasingly relied on Chinese and Korean suppliers to fill the gap left by Western and post-Soviet sources.
2.2 Exports: Turkey emerges, while traditional destinations recede
On the export side, the EU's outbound trade also underwent significant restructuring:
| Partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 139.6 | 54.7 | −60.8% |
| China | 80.1 | 25.3 | −68.5% |
| Korea, Republic of | 45.8 | 29.7 | −35.1% |
| Brazil | 19.8 | 2.8 | −85.9% |
| Türkiye | 7.0 | 30.8 | +337.7% |
| United States | 32.2 | 36.7 | +13.7% |
| Unspecified destinations | 4.9 | 80.3 | +1,522.5% |
The UK remained the largest single export destination but lost over 60% of its value. Exports to China fell even more steeply. Türkiye emerged as a fast-growing market, rising from €7.0 million to €30.8 million — a 338% increase — reflecting Turkey's growing chemical processing industry and its role as an intermediary market. The extremely large increase in exports to "unspecified" destinations (from €4.9 million to €80.3 million) likely reflects confidentiality rules applied to sensitive or defence-related trade flows rather than a genuine market development, and should be interpreted with caution.
2.3 Geopolitical shocks amplified trade volatility
The volatility analysis reveals that certain trade relationships were exceptionally unstable. The coefficient of variation (CV) for imports from Belarus reached 1.26, and from Brazil 1.44, indicating highly erratic flows. For exports, Saudi Arabia showed the highest volatility (CV of 2.34). Three specific shock events stand out:
| Event | Year | Flow | Abnormality | Price shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK import price shock | 2021 | Imports | 98.0 | +412% |
| Korea export price shock | 2022 | Exports | 88.9 | +3,255% |
| China export price shock | 2019 | Exports | 52.3 | +645% |
The UK import price shock of 2021 (a 412% price shift with 98% abnormality) likely reflects the immediate post-Brexit adjustment period, when supply chains were disrupted and documentation requirements increased costs. The South Korean export price shock in 2022 — a staggering 3,255% shift — is almost certainly related to the extreme energy and feedstock price spikes triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its ripple effects on the global chemical market.
3. Structural shifts within the EU: consolidation and specialisation
Beyond the external trade dynamics, the internal EU market for nitrile compounds also underwent significant structural change. Concentration increased on the import side while decreasing on the export side, and production became more geographically concentrated among a smaller number of specialised member states.
3.1 Import concentration increased; export markets became more diversified
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,499 to 1,874 (+25%), indicating that the EU's import sources became more concentrated — consistent with the growing dominance of China and South Korea. On the export side, the HHI fell from 1,862 to 1,123 (−39.7%), suggesting that EU exporters diversified their destination markets, reducing dependence on any single partner.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| HHI — imports (value) | 1,499 | 1,874 | +25.0% |
| HHI — exports (value) | 1,862 | 1,123 | −39.7% |
| HHI — imports (volume) | 1,988 | 2,893 | +45.5% |
| HHI — exports (volume) | 3,350 | 2,519 | −24.8% |
3.2 Germany and the Netherlands anchor EU trade; France and Hungary saw dramatic declines
Within the EU, Germany remained the largest exporter throughout the period, though its share declined modestly from €125.7 million to €111.1 million (−11.6%). The Netherlands grew its export position by 46.8% to €78.3 million. The most dramatic changes, however, occurred in France and Hungary: French exports collapsed by 93.4%, from €164.9 million to just €10.8 million, while Hungarian exports essentially disappeared (−99.9%, from €17.0 million to €20,000). On the import side, Italy's role expanded enormously, from €2.8 million to €26.9 million (+875%), while Portugal's imports fell 97.1%.
| EU Reporter | Exports 2015 (€M) | Exports 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 125.7 | 111.1 | −11.6% |
| Netherlands | 53.3 | 78.3 | +46.8% |
| France | 164.9 | 10.8 | −93.4% |
| Belgium | 21.3 | 19.8 | −6.9% |
| Italy | 10.2 | 17.7 | +74.2% |
| Hungary | 17.0 | 0.02 | −99.9% |
3.3 Specialisation is concentrated in the Benelux and Germany
Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) data for 2025 shows that EU production and export of nitrile compounds is heavily concentrated among a small number of member states:
| Member State | RCA | RSCA | Share of EU nitrile production | Share of total EU chemical exports |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 2.34 | 0.40 | 33.9% | 14.5% |
| Belgium | 1.98 | 0.33 | 16.8% | 8.5% |
| France | 1.62 | 0.24 | 12.7% | 7.8% |
| Germany | 1.54 | 0.21 | 32.6% | 21.2% |
| Portugal | 0.45 | −0.38 | 0.6% | 1.4% |
The Netherlands and Belgium show the strongest specialisation in nitrile compounds relative to their overall chemical sectors. Germany, while having the largest absolute production share (32.6%), has a lower specialisation intensity because its chemical sector is much broader. Most other EU member states show no meaningful specialisation in this product category.
3.4 Within CN 2926, acrylonitrile dominates but its share is eroding
The sub-product breakdown reveals that acrylonitrile (292610) is by far the largest category by volume on the import side, though its share has been declining. In 2015, acrylonitrile accounted for 150,024 tonnes of EU imports (72% of total volume); by 2025, this had fallen to 69,752 tonnes (55%). Its import value dropped from €187.2 million to €96.8 million.
Meanwhile, the catch-all category of "other nitrile compounds" (292690) remained the largest by value — rising from €307.4 million to €330.9 million — despite relatively stable volumes. This category commands significantly higher unit prices (€5,336/t in 2015, rising to €7,014/t in 2025), reflecting its composition of higher-value specialty chemicals.
Dicyandiamide (292620) showed steady growth on the import side, with volumes rising from 4,521 tonnes to 9,884 tonnes and values from €9.1 million to €18.7 million — consistent with growing demand from the construction, electronics, and pharmaceutical sectors where dicyandiamide is used as a curing agent and intermediate.
Conclusion
The EU's nitrile-compound market over 2015–2025 has been shaped by three concurrent forces: volume contraction, price inflation, and geopolitical reorientation. Trade volumes have fallen dramatically — by 40% on the import side and over 55% on the export side — while unit prices have risen by roughly 50%, resulting in a more modest decline in trade values. The EU's trade deficit has widened, and its import dependency has become more concentrated in Asian suppliers, particularly China and South Korea, as traditional sources like the UK, Russia, and Belarus have receded. Domestically, production has contracted in volume but held its value, and the market has consolidated around the Benelux countries and Germany, with France and Central European members seeing their roles diminish sharply. The period was punctuated by several severe price shocks, particularly in 2021–2022, linked to Brexit adjustments and the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Looking ahead, the EU's increasing reliance on a smaller number of Asian suppliers — combined with rising import concentration — presents potential supply-chain vulnerability that policymakers may wish to monitor closely.