Market evolution: Acrylonitrile (CN 292610) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Acrylonitrile (CN 292610) is a key organic chemical belonging to the nitrile-function compounds group. It is a critical feedstock for the production of synthetic fibres (acrylic), plastics (ABS, SAN), and nitrile rubber. Between 2015 and 2025, the EU acrylonitrile market underwent a profound structural transformation: domestic production contracted sharply, traditional supply chains were disrupted by geopolitical events, and the EU's trade balance improved markedly. This report examines the main dynamics behind these shifts, drawing on EU-level trade data over the period.

1. A decade of declining EU production and rebalancing trade flows

EU production fell by more than half

Over the period, EU production volumes of acrylonitrile declined from 700,560 tonnes to 300,000 tonnes — a drop of 57.2%. Production value followed a similar trajectory, falling 35.5% from €558 million to €360 million. This contraction reflects the closure or mothballing of several European crackers and the broader shift of bulk chemical production toward the Middle East and Asia, where feedstock advantages (particularly access to cheaper propylene and ammonia) have eroded the competitiveness of EU-based facilities.

Imports declined even faster than production

Despite the collapse in domestic output, the EU's total imports of acrylonitrile fell even more sharply — by 53.5% in volume (from 150,024 tonnes to 69,752 tonnes) and by 48.3% in value (from €187.2 million to €96.8 million). This suggests that EU demand for acrylonitrile itself contracted over the decade, likely driven by the decline of downstream acrylic fibre production in Europe and partial substitution by alternative monomers.

Exports surged, narrowing the trade deficit

In contrast to the import decline, EU exports of acrylonitrile expanded dramatically. Export volumes grew 282.9% (from 13,551 tonnes to 51,891 tonnes) and export values rose 366.1% (from €16.4 million to €76.3 million). This export boom substantially narrowed the trade balance, which improved by 88% from a deficit of €170.9 million to just €20.5 million. The Netherlands emerged as the EU's dominant export hub, with Dutch exports surging 691.6% from €8.5 million to €67.1 million, reflecting the port of Rotterdam's role as a key re-export gateway.

2. Geopolitical upheaval reshaped the EU's supplier landscape

The collapse of traditional European suppliers

The most striking feature of the decade was the near-total disappearance of the UK and Russia — historically the EU's two largest acrylonitrile suppliers — from the import statistics.

• United Kingdom: Imports from the UK fell from €74.2 million in 2015 to essentially zero by 2025 (a 100% decline). This collapse coincided with Brexit; once the UK left the EU customs union, acrylonitrile trade became subject to third-country formalities, disrupting long-standing supply chains. The volatility of UK imports was among the highest observed (coefficient of variation of 1.12), and a major price shock centred on 2022 saw import prices spike by 329.4%.

• Russian Federation: Imports from Russia declined by 91.6%, from €64.9 million to €5.4 million. While some erosion began before 2022, the introduction of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 effectively severed this supply line. By 2025, Russian-origin acrylonitrile accounted for a negligible share of EU imports.

South Korea filled the supply vacuum

The void left by the UK and Russia was filled almost entirely by South Korea, which saw its exports to the EU surge by 1,114.9% — from €6.6 million in 2015 to €80.1 million in 2025. By the end of the period, South Korea had become the EU's single largest supplier of acrylonitrile, accounting for a dominant share of total import value. This dramatic pivot reflects both Korean producers' competitive cost position and the EU's need to rapidly diversify away from politically disrupted sources.

Import concentration increased sharply

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports more than doubled from 3,006 to 7,006 (a 133.1% increase). While the EU reduced its total import volume, it became far more dependent on a smaller number of suppliers — principally South Korea. The HHI value of 7,006 in 2025 indicates a highly concentrated import market, which could expose the EU to supply-side risks should Korean production be disrupted.

3. Strategic autonomy improved, but new vulnerabilities emerged

Net import reliance declined

Despite the contraction in domestic production, the EU's net import reliance actually improved over the decade, falling from 15.8% to 12.4% (a 21.3% decline). At its lowest point (around 2020–2021), this metric stood at just 5.4%. The improvement was driven by a combination of weaker domestic demand, some recovery in EU-based production capacity, and the rapid growth in re-exports (particularly through the Netherlands). Similarly, trade intensity declined by 15.1% (from 34.7% to 29.4%), indicating that the EU market became somewhat less exposed to international trade flows.

The Netherlands and Germany emerged as specialised exporters

An analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in 2025 shows that within the EU, the Netherlands (RCA of 3.65, RSCA of 0.57) and Germany (RCA of 1.98, RSCA of 0.33) are the only member states with a clear specialisation in acrylonitrile trade. These two countries accounted for over 53% and 42% of EU-level product-specific production shares respectively. By contrast, major economies such as France, Spain, and Italy showed no meaningful specialisation in this product, confirming the highly concentrated geographic nature of the EU's acrylonitrile industry.

Price shocks highlighted remaining supply risks

The volatility analysis reveals that several significant price shocks occurred during the period, particularly on the export side:

• South Africa (2018): An extreme export price shock with an abnormality score of 210.9 and a price shift of 3,326.7%, suggesting a possible data anomaly or a highly unusual transaction.
• India (2020): An export price shock (abnormality of 44.5, shift of 902.4%) coinciding with the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted global chemical logistics.
• UK imports (2022): As noted above, a major price shock in the context of post-Brexit trade restructuring and broader energy cost escalation.

These shocks underscore that even as the EU's overall import reliance declined, the remaining trade flows were characterised by significant price volatility, particularly with emerging or transitioning partners.

Conclusion

The EU acrylonitrile market between 2015 and 2025 was defined by two parallel narratives: structural decline and geopolitical realignment. Domestic production fell by more than half, reflecting the long-term erosion of European competitiveness in basic petrochemicals. At the same time, two of the EU's most important traditional suppliers — the UK and Russia — were effectively removed from the supply map by Brexit and sanctions respectively. South Korea stepped into the breach, becoming the dominant supplier and reshaping the import concentration landscape.

While headline indicators of strategic autonomy improved — net import reliance fell to 12.4% and the trade deficit narrowed to just €20.5 million — the underlying picture is more nuanced. The EU has traded geographic risk (dependence on politically unstable neighbours) for supplier concentration risk (heavy reliance on a single Asian exporter). Going forward, policymakers and industry stakeholders will need to weigh the benefits of this new supply configuration against the vulnerabilities it creates, particularly in a context of rising global trade tensions and potential disruptions to Asian shipping routes.