Market evolution: Modified natural polymers (CN 391390) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU trade in modified natural polymers (Customs code 391390) over the decade from 2015 to 2025. The product category covers a diverse range of materials, including hardened proteins and chemical derivatives of natural rubber, excluding alginic acid. The period was characterized by a profound transformation in the EU's trade position, marked by a dramatic surge in export values that far outpaced volume growth, leading to a significant strengthening of the trade balance and a shift towards a more specialized and concentrated market structure.

I. A Surge in Export Value Driven by Price Escalation

The EU's trade in CN 391390 expanded substantially over the period, but the most striking feature was the exceptional growth in the value of exports, driven primarily by a sharp increase in unit prices rather than by volume.

Export values tripled while volumes saw moderate growth.

Total EU export value grew by 198.5% between the first and last observed years, rising from €404.5 million to €1.2 billion. In contrast, export volumes (in net tonnes) increased by a more modest 23.2%, from 19,109 to 23,535 tonnes. This divergence indicates a strong and sustained price effect. The average export price surged by 142.4%, from approximately €21,163 per tonne to €51,302 per tonne. This price trend suggests either a shift in the EU's export basket towards higher-value products or significant inflationary pressures within this market.

Import growth was more restrained, leading to a widened trade surplus.

EU imports also grew, but at a slower pace. Import values increased by 64.5% to €336.8 million, with volumes up 28.0% to 23,897 tonnes. Consequently, the EU's trade balance shifted from a surplus of €199.8 million in 2015 to a substantial surplus of €870.8 million in 2025. This near quintupling of the surplus underscores the EU's strengthened competitive position as a net supplier to the world market.

The United States became the dominant destination for EU exports.

The geographic focus of EU exports intensified significantly. While the United States was already the top partner in 2015 (€133.1 million), its share of EU exports value grew dramatically to reach €454.7 million in 2025—a 241.7% increase. Other key partners like China (from €16.8M to €109.0M) and Switzerland (from €30.5M to €133.9M) also saw explosive growth. Conversely, exports to the United Kingdom, the second-largest partner in 2015, declined by 26.0% in value terms.

II. Increased Market Concentration and Emergence of EU Specialization

Parallel to the trade value dynamics, the market structure evolved towards greater concentration, both in terms of trading partners and producing EU member states.

Import and export markets became more concentrated.

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, rose for both sides of EU trade. The HHI for imports by value increased by 40.9% to 3,424, while for exports it increased by 48.9% to 2,127. This indicates that the EU's trade flows are increasingly directed towards a narrower set of major partners, heightening interdependence.

Sweden emerged as the EU's export powerhouse.

Within the EU, Sweden's role in this market expanded extraordinarily. Sweden's export value grew by 366.1%, from €184.4 million to €859.5 million, making it by far the largest EU exporter by 2025. Sweden also exhibited the highest Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) score of 7.78, confirming its dominant specialization. Other members like Denmark and France also showed strong specialization. This contrasts sharply with the least specialized members, such as Luxembourg and Hungary, which have negligible shares in production and export.

EU production capacity and value increased.

The growth in trade is underpinned by a strengthening of EU production. EU production quantity increased by 20.0% from 100,000 to 120,000 tonnes, while the estimated production value rose by 69.8% from €707 million to €1.2 billion. The value growth again outpacing volume growth mirrors the trend observed in export prices.

III. Structural Shifts and Occurrence of Price Shocks

The period witnessed not only steady growth but also structural adjustments and specific volatility events, pointing to a more dynamic and occasionally disrupted market.

The EU solidified its position as a net exporter.

The net import reliance metric became increasingly negative, moving from -43.9% to -116.8%, indicating the EU's role shifted from a moderate net exporter to a very strong one. This is corroborated by rising trade intensity and export propensity scores, meaning the sector is deeply integrated into global trade and increasingly oriented towards exports.

Trade flows with key partners displayed distinct volatility profiles.

Analysis of volatility reveals differing risk profiles. Imports from Russia and Japan were highly volatile (coefficients of variation above 1.2), likely due to geopolitical factors. For exports, flows to Canada and Norway were notably unstable. In contrast, trade with major partners like China (both import and export) and the US (export) demonstrated relative stability.

Notable price shocks occurred in 2019 and 2022.

The data identifies specific supply shocks. In 2022, EU export prices to Türkiye surged by 210.9%, and import prices from the United Kingdom spiked by 405.8%. An earlier shock was detected in 2019 with a 57.7% increase in export prices to the Russian Federation. These events suggest sensitivity to regional disruptions and pricing pressures in specific corridors.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU trade market for modified natural polymers (CN 391390) underwent a fundamental transformation. The EU consolidated its position as a major global supplier, with its trade surplus multiplying as export growth was overwhelmingly driven by soaring prices. The market structure became more concentrated, both geographically—with the United States becoming a dominant partner—and within the EU itself, where Sweden emerged as the undisputed leader in production and export specialization. While the sector demonstrated strong growth and increased export orientation, it also experienced specific price shocks, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in certain trade relationships. The overall trajectory points to a more valuable, more specialized, and more concentrated EU industry within this niche chemicals segment.