Market evolution: Mineral wool (CN 680610) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in slag-wool, rock-wool, and similar mineral wools (customs code 680610) between 2015 and 2025. The analysis is based on official trade data, focusing on trends in value, volume, pricing, partner relationships, and structural shifts within the EU market. The period was characterized by overall growth in trade values, rising prices, and significant changes in the geographical composition of trade flows, driven by geopolitical and economic factors. For a detailed overview of the data, see the Scope & Definitions section.

1. A Decade of Rising Values and Shifting Price Dynamics

The EU's external trade in mineral wool (CN 680610) grew significantly in value over the decade, though this growth was not uniform between imports and exports. While the EU maintained a positive trade balance, its position as a net exporter weakened slightly. This overarching trend was primarily driven by escalating unit prices, which outpaced changes in physical trade volumes.

• Imports outpaced exports in value growth, tightening the trade balance. Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports surged by 78.9%, reaching €265.0 million. In comparison, the value of EU exports grew by 33.3% to €413.7 million. Consequently, the EU's trade surplus in this product shrank from €162.2 million to €148.7 million, a decline of 8.3%. This indicates growing domestic demand met by foreign suppliers. The key trade metrics are summarized in the following table, with full data available in the General Overview.

• Price inflation was the dominant driver of value growth, especially for exports. The strong growth in trade value occurred despite relatively flat or modest growth in physical quantities. EU export volumes decreased slightly (-1.0%), while import volumes grew by 58.8%. The primary catalyst for value growth was a sharp increase in unit prices. The average price of EU exports rose by 34.7% to €1,827 per tonne, while import prices increased by 12.6% to €1,344 per tonne. This price differential—where export prices are significantly higher than import prices—helped sustain the trade surplus despite higher import growth.

2. Geopolitical Re-alignment and Partner Volatility

The landscape of the EU's trade partners for mineral wool underwent a dramatic transformation, highlighted by the near-collapse of trade with Russia and the rapid emergence of new suppliers from Ukraine and Türkiye. This period also saw increased trade volatility with several partners, culminating in notable price shocks in 2022. Partner-specific data is detailed in the top partners and volatility sections.

• The Russian Federation was effectively removed from both import and export flows. The most striking shift was the collapse of trade with Russia. EU imports from Russia plummeted by 98.7%, from €7.4 million in 2015 to just €92,230 in 2025. Similarly, EU exports to Russia fell by 100.0%, vanishing from €19.1 million to €1,270. This de-coupling was largely complete before 2025 and aligns with broader geopolitical trends and sanctions.

• Ukraine and Türkiye transformed from minor to major import partners. In stark contrast, imports from Ukraine and Türkiye grew explosively. Ukrainian exports to the EU surged by 1,364.8% to €38.5 million, making Ukraine a top-5 supplier. Imports from Türkiye saw even more dramatic growth of 1,748.0%, reaching €23.3 million. This suggests a significant re-routing of supply chains, with these countries partially filling the void left by Russia.

• The United Kingdom and Switzerland solidified their positions as top export destinations. The EU's export growth was heavily reliant on traditional partners. Exports to the UK grew by 88.7% to €78.5 million, and exports to Switzerland grew by 133.7% to €73.9 million. Together, these two markets accounted for a large share of the EU's export value increase.

• Trade volatility increased, culminating in significant price shocks in 2022. Several partner relationships exhibited high volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation. Notably, trade with Türkiye (imports) and the Russian Federation (exports) was highly unstable. The year 2022 stands out for multiple price shocks. The most severe were in exports to Ukraine (price abnormality of 51.3) and China (price abnormality of 31.0), likely reflecting energy cost surges and supply chain disruptions in the wake of the 2022 geopolitical crisis.

3. Internal EU Dynamics: Production Shifts and Specialisation

Within the EU, the structure of production and export specialization revealed a clear divide between Central Eastern European (CEE) producers and major Western European economies. While overall EU production volume stagnated, its value increased sharply, indicating industry consolidation or a move to higher-value products.

• EU production volume stagnated, but value more than doubled. According to production data, the quantity of mineral wool produced in the EU decreased slightly from 2.22 billion kg in 2015 to 2.10 billion kg in 2025 (-5.3%). However, the value of production more than doubled, rising from €1.45 billion to €3.00 billion (+107.5%). This confirms that the price increases seen in trade data reflect broader market trends and not just export-specific factors.

• Export specialization is strongest in CEE member states, led by Poland. Analysis of export specialization reveals that countries like Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania, and Poland have a high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) in this product. Poland is the standout, accounting for 29.1% of total EU production and being a consistent top exporter. Conversely, large economies like Belgium, Italy, Austria, and Ireland are net importers with negative RSCA, indicating they consume more than they produce for export.

• The EU's internal import reliance intensified, driven by demand in larger economies. The net import reliance metric, though negative (indicating net exporter status), moved closer to zero, from -7.3% in 2015 to -4.6% in 2025. This confirms the trend from the trade balance: the EU's external dependency for meeting domestic demand is increasing. This was driven by surging import demand in countries like Romania (+352.7%), Ireland (+500.3%), and Sweden (+90.6%), as seen in the top reporters data.

Conclusion

The 2015-2025 period for EU trade in mineral wool (CN 680610) was defined by robust value growth fueled primarily by significant price inflation rather than volume expansion. The EU's trade geography was forcibly reshaped by geopolitical events, most notably the near-total collapse of trade with Russia and the rapid ascent of Ukraine and Türkiye as key suppliers to the EU market. Internally, production consolidated around higher-value outputs, while export capability remained concentrated in Central Eastern Europe. Despite being a consistent net exporter, the EU's reliance on imports grew, particularly to meet demand in its larger Western economies. These dynamics point to a market that has become more expensive, more geopolographically reconfigured, and one where internal EU consumption is increasingly linked to external supply chains.