Market evolution: Marble travertine and alabaster (CN 680291) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in worked marble, travertine and alabaster (Combined Nomenclature code 680291) over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers worked monumental and building stone in these materials, excluding tiles, small cubes, setts, curbstones, flagstones, and several finished-goods categories such as jewellery and original sculptures. Over the decade under review, the EU's trade in this product has undergone a profound structural transformation: export volumes have roughly halved while unit values have nearly doubled, import volumes have surged to match export levels, and market concentration has intensified on both the import and export sides. The data paint a picture of a sector where the EU — and Italy in particular — is progressively moving toward higher-value, lower-volume exports, while sourcing increasingly larger quantities of lower-priced material from a handful of third-country suppliers.

The report is organised into three main sections reflecting the key dynamics observable in the data: the shift in volume-price composition of trade, the evolving geography and concentration of flows, and the changing vulnerability profile of the EU's position in this market. All figures are drawn from the EU Trade Dashboard.

1. A structural decoupling: volumes fall while values and prices surge

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 680291 over 2015–2025 is the sharp divergence between physical volumes and monetary values. Both imports and exports have moved in opposite directions in terms of quantity and price, signalling a fundamental repositioning of the EU in the global marble trade.

1.1 Export volumes collapsed while prices nearly doubled

EU exports of marble, travertine and alabaster fell from 792,132 tonnes in 2015 to just 382,464 tonnes in 2025 — a decline of 51.7%. Yet over the same period, the total export value fell only modestly by 7.1%, from €831.0 million to €771.7 million. The reason is a dramatic increase in the average export unit price, which rose from €1,049 per tonne to €2,018 per tonne — an increase of 92.3%. This suggests that the EU, and particularly its dominant exporter Italy, has been progressively shifting its export offering toward higher-value-added products (finished slabs, bespoke cut pieces, or premium-grade stone) while ceding lower-value, bulk commodity trade to competitors.

Source: General Overview — Trade

1.2 Import volumes and values more than doubled with stable pricing

In contrast to the export side, EU imports tell a volume-driven growth story. Import volumes rose from 178,683 tonnes to 354,206 tonnes (+98.2%), and import value surged from €97.5 million to €200.2 million (+105.4%). Crucially, the import unit price remained broadly stable, moving from €545 per tonne to €565 per tonne (+3.6%). This indicates that the EU is sourcing significantly larger quantities of marble and travertine from third countries at roughly constant prices — consistent with growing use of imported raw or semi-processed stone in construction and renovation, likely at the expense of domestic extraction.

Source: General Overview — Trade

1.3 EU production mirrors the volume-to-value shift

Domestic production data from Prodcom (code 23.70.11.00) confirm the same structural pattern within the EU. Production volume declined by 33.2%, from 8.50 billion kg to 5.68 billion kg, while production value rose by 15.4%, from €2.82 billion to €3.25 billion. This further supports the interpretation that EU producers are processing less raw stone but extracting more value from it.

Source: Production Volumes

2. Rising concentration and the gravitational pull of Italy and Türkiye

Alongside the volume-price transformation, the EU's marble trade has become markedly more concentrated on both the import and export sides. A small number of partner countries and EU Member States now account for a disproportionate share of flows, increasing both efficiency and dependency risks.

2.1 Italy dominates EU exports, reinforcing its role as the EU's marble powerhouse

Italy alone accounted for €619.8 million of the EU's €771.7 million total exports in 2025 — roughly 80% of the total. This dominance is not new but has grown more pronounced: Italy's share increased from €572.4 million in 2015 (with an 8.3% value increase over the decade). Spain, the second-largest EU exporter, saw its export value collapse by 54.4% from €158.8 million to €72.4 million. Portugal experienced a similar decline (−62.1%), while Greece (+34.1%) and France (+127.7%) gained ground from much smaller bases. The result is an export market where Italy's leadership is nearly unchallenged within the EU.

Source: Top Reporters by Value

2.2 Türkiye has emerged as the dominant import supplier

On the import side, Türkiye has cemented its position as the EU's primary supplier. EU imports from Türkiye grew by 142.9%, from €51.9 million in 2015 to €126.0 million in 2025, representing 63% of total EU imports by value. The next-largest suppliers — China (€30.6 million), India (€12.8 million), and Egypt (€8.8 million) — together account for less than one-quarter of imports. Several smaller suppliers showed extreme volatility: imports from Vietnam fell by 44.9%, while those from Iran grew by 144.8% (albeit from a low base of €0.5 million to €1.3 million).

Source: Top Partners by Value

2.3 Market concentration indices confirm tightening supply chains

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 3,361 to 4,269 (+27.0%), while the HHI for exports climbed from 1,617 to 2,533 (+56.7%). Both readings exceed the 2,500 threshold commonly used to indicate a highly concentrated market. For imports, this reflects the growing dominance of Türkiye; for exports, it mirrors Italy's overwhelming share. The trend raises questions about supply-chain resilience: disruption in either Italian production or Turkish quarrying could have outsized effects on EU trade flows.

Source: Concentration

2.4 The United States remains the EU's top export destination

The United States absorbed €369.5 million of EU marble exports in 2025, up 22.5% from €301.5 million in 2015 — nearly half of all EU exports by value. Saudi Arabia, the second-largest destination, saw a 44.0% decline (from €83.9 million to €47.0 million). Other Middle Eastern markets (UAE, Qatar) also contracted, while Morocco bucked the trend with 124.0% growth. The growing concentration of EU exports in the US market adds a geographical dimension to the concentration risk identified above.

3. A more trade-intensive sector with evolving vulnerability patterns

The third major dynamic is the EU's growing openness to trade in this product category, combined with a shifting vulnerability profile that reflects both the import surge and the sector's increasing reliance on external markets.

3.1 Trade intensity and export propensity have risen significantly

The trade intensity of the EU's marble sector increased from 27.3% to 43.4% (+58.6%), meaning that trade (imports + exports) now represents a much larger share of domestic production than it did a decade ago. Similarly, the export propensity — exports as a share of production — rose from 25.5% to 38.4% (+50.8%). These figures confirm that the EU marble sector has become significantly more integrated into global trade flows, even as domestic production volumes have declined.

Source: Trade Intensity, Export Propensity

3.2 Net import reliance has worsened but the EU remains a net exporter

The net import reliance indicator (defined as (imports − exports) / production) moved from −29.7% to −42.2%. The negative sign indicates that the EU remains a net exporter — it ships out more marble than it takes in — but the ratio has worsened by 42.0%, meaning the gap between exports and imports is narrowing relative to production. At its lowest point, net import reliance reached −79.6%, suggesting that in some years the EU's export surplus relative to production was even larger. The current trajectory, however, is one of convergence: rising imports and falling export volumes are eroding the EU's net exporter position.

Source: Net Import Reliance

3.3 Price shocks emerged in specific export markets in 2022–2023

The volatility analysis reveals several notable price shock events in EU exports. In 2022, the Dominican Republic and Kuwait both experienced abnormal price spikes (abnormality scores of 76.2 and 62.8, respectively), with unit prices rising 38.6% and 37.2% in a single year. In 2023, exports to the Russian Federation saw a price shift of +62.5%. While these markets represent relatively small shares of total EU exports (0.8%, 2.3%, and 4.1% respectively), the shocks are noteworthy as they may reflect supply chain disruptions linked to the post-COVID recovery and geopolitical tensions (including sanctions-related trade reconfiguration).

Source: Supply Shocks

3.4 Specialisation data confirm the EU's Mediterranean core

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that Italy (RSCA: 0.759), Slovenia (0.710), Portugal (0.642), and Greece (0.625) are the most specialised EU exporters of marble and travertine, with Italy holding a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of 7.30. At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland, Czechia, Cyprus, Lithuania, and Croatia show no meaningful specialisation in this product. This geography is unsurprising — it aligns with the known distribution of marble and travertine quarries across the Mediterranean basin — but it underscores how concentrated the EU's export capacity is in a handful of southern Member States.

Source: Specialisation

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU trade in marble, travertine and alabaster has undergone a fundamental transformation. The EU has transitioned from a volume-driven exporter to a value-driven one: export volumes halved while unit prices nearly doubled, reflecting a move up the value chain toward premium processed stone. Simultaneously, import volumes have doubled — driven largely by Türkiye — at stable prices, suggesting that the EU is increasingly relying on third-country stone for its construction and renovation needs.

This dual shift has narrowed the EU's trade surplus, increased the sector's trade intensity, and concentrated both import and export flows around fewer partners. Italy's dominance on the export side and Türkiye's on the import side create a bilateral dependency structure that, while efficient, carries concentration risks. The EU's marble trade is now more open, more specialised, and more exposed to disruptions in a small number of key corridors than it was a decade ago.

Looking ahead, the data suggest that the EU's role in the global marble market will continue to evolve toward higher-value processing and away from bulk extraction and export. Policymakers and industry stakeholders should monitor the concentration indicators and trade intensity trends documented here, as they signal both the competitive advantages of EU producers and the vulnerabilities inherent in an increasingly trade-dependent sector.