Market evolution: Lift parts (CN 843131) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in parts of lifts, skip hoists and escalators (Combined Nomenclature code 843131) over the period 2015–2025. The EU has historically been a net exporter in this sector, leveraging the technological leadership of established European elevator manufacturers. However, the decade under review reveals a significant transformation: while EU exports have declined in volume, imports—particularly from China—have surged, progressively narrowing the trade surplus. This report identifies and explains the three principal dynamics that have shaped this market: the shift from quantity to value in EU trade flows, the restructuring of key trading partnerships, and the sector's evolving strategic positioning within global supply chains.

1. A Volume-to-Value Shift: The EU Trades Less but at Higher Prices

The EU's export volume collapsed while unit prices nearly doubled

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between physical volumes and unit values in EU trade. EU exports of lift parts declined from 129,705 tonnes in 2015 to just 73,465 tonnes in 2025, a drop of 43.4%. Yet the corresponding export value fell only 15.7%, from €897 million to €756 million. This is explained by a dramatic increase in average export unit prices, which rose from €6,915 per tonne to €10,287 per tonne (+48.8%).

The premium gap between EU exports and imports widened substantially

A structural price premium has always existed between EU exports and imports, reflecting the EU's role as a producer of high-specification, technologically advanced elevator components. In 2015, EU export prices were 1.75 times the import price. By 2025, this ratio had climbed to 2.39 times, indicating that the EU increasingly specialises in the higher-value segments of the market while importing more commodity-grade or standardised parts. The relatively modest 8.9% rise in import unit prices, compared to the 48.8% surge in export prices, underscores this polarisation.

The trade surplus narrowed significantly as import volumes grew

As a consequence of falling export volumes and rising imports, the EU's trade surplus in lift parts contracted from €556 million to €348 million, a decline of 37.4%. The net import reliance indicator moved from -24.5% to -14.0% (the negative sign indicating a net export position), confirming that the EU's self-sufficiency in this sector has diminished, though it remains a net exporter overall.

2. China's Import Surge and the Reconfiguration of Trading Partnerships

China became the dominant source of EU imports, nearly doubling its market share

The growth of Chinese lift-part exports to the EU is the single most consequential development of the decade. EU imports from China rose from €121 million to €219 million, an increase of 81.4%. China thus consolidated its position as the EU's largest external supplier of lift parts. This growth reflects the broader expansion of China's elevator manufacturing industry, which has scaled massively to serve its domestic construction boom and subsequently leveraged that capacity for exports.

Switzerland's role as an import source collapsed

In stark contrast to China's rise, EU imports from Switzerland plunged by 72.7%, from €123 million to €34 million. In 2015, Switzerland was the EU's second-largest import source; by 2025, it had fallen behind China, the UK, and Türkiye. This decline likely reflects supply-chain restructuring by multinational elevator groups (notably Schindler and thyssenkrupp) that have shifted production or sourcing away from Switzerland toward lower-cost locations, as well as possible effects from the reconfiguration of the EU-Switzerland institutional framework.

New suppliers emerged alongside traditional partners

Beyond the China story, several smaller suppliers showed rapid growth. Imports from India grew by 487.8% (from €1.8 million to €10.8 million), imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina rose by 240.8%, and imports from Türkiye increased by 159.2%. These emerging suppliers may reflect the nearshoring trend in European manufacturing, with Türkiye and the Western Balkans benefiting from geographic proximity and trade agreements. Meanwhile, imports from the Russian Federation collapsed by 99.9%, falling from €952,000 to under €1,000—a clear consequence of EU sanctions imposed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

EU export markets also shifted, with a pivot toward mature economies

On the export side, the EU's traditional largest market, Switzerland, saw only a modest decline of 12.2% (to €123 million), maintaining its position as the top destination. However, the most dynamic export growth came from the United Kingdom (+37.9%, reaching €104 million), the United States (+28.3%, reaching €86 million), and Saudi Arabia (+30.3%, reaching €63 million). In contrast, exports to China fell by 54.1% (from €107 million to €49 million), and exports to Türkiye dropped by 53.7%. The decline in EU exports to China likely reflects the maturation of China's domestic elevator-parts industry, which increasingly serves its own OEMs.

3. Industrial Restructuring, Domestic Production Growth, and Rising Market Concentration

EU production nearly doubled in value, absorbing demand previously met by exports

Despite the decline in export volumes, EU domestic production of lift parts nearly doubled in value, rising from approximately €1.6 billion to €3.2 billion (+99.6%). This apparent paradox—falling exports alongside surging production—is consistent with a reorientation of the EU elevator-parts industry toward domestic and intra-EU demand, driven by strong construction and modernisation cycles (particularly in urban vertical transportation and retrofitting of ageing lift stock). The decline in exports may therefore partly reflect a diversion of production capacity to serve the home market rather than a loss of competitiveness abroad.

Import concentration increased, raising supply-chain dependency risks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration rose from 2,940 to 3,423 (+16.4%) by value, and from 6,098 to 6,365 (+4.4%) by volume. While these levels remain moderate, the upward trend indicates that the EU's import base has become more concentrated—largely because of China's growing share. Export concentration also increased modestly (HHI from 664 to 796, +19.9%), but EU exports remain far more diversified than imports, reflecting a wide array of destination markets.

Specialisation patterns reveal a core of EU producers surrounded by a consumption periphery

The specialisation analysis for 2025 highlights a clear division within the EU. Estonia (RSCA: 0.72), Slovakia (0.67), Spain (0.56), Greece (0.52), and Finland (0.33) are the most specialised producers, meaning they export lift parts disproportionately to their overall trade profile. At the other extreme, Latvia, Ireland, Luxembourg, Romania, and Belgium show near-zero or negative specialisation, indicating they are primarily consumers or transhipment hubs rather than producers. Among EU Member States, Italy is the largest exporter (€239 million in 2025), followed by Spain (€143 million) and Germany (€112 million). On the import side, Germany saw the steepest growth (+65.8%), reflecting rising demand for components in Europe's largest elevator market.

A price shock in US-bound exports points to supply-chain disruption

One notable shock event was detected in EU exports to the United States in 2022, where export prices surged by 25.6% with an abnormality score of 14.5, representing 12.9% of total export value. This likely reflects the combined effects of post-pandemic supply-chain disruptions, elevated freight costs, and possibly early tariff-related adjustments. Meanwhile, the volatility analysis shows that import flows from smaller suppliers (Hong Kong, Vietnam, Korea) exhibit high variability (CV > 1.0), while China's exports to the EU were remarkably stable (CV: 0.065), confirming its role as a reliable, high-volume supplier.

Conclusion

The EU market for lift parts (CN 843131) has undergone a structural transformation over the 2015–2025 decade. The EU has maintained its position as a net exporter but has shifted decisively toward higher-value, lower-volume trade: export unit prices rose by nearly 50% while physical shipments fell by over 40%. Concurrently, EU domestic production has nearly doubled, suggesting that the industry is increasingly oriented toward servicing the robust intra-European demand for elevator modernisation and new installations. On the import side, China has emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, growing by 81% in value and driving an increase in import concentration. The EU's trade surplus, while still positive, has narrowed significantly—from €556 million to €348 million—and strategic reliance on Chinese supply has become a defining feature of the sector's import profile. The decline of Switzerland as an import source, the collapse of trade with Russia, and the emergence of new suppliers like India and Bosnia and Herzegovina further illustrate the ongoing realignment of global supply chains in this industry. Going forward, policymakers and industry stakeholders will need to monitor the balance between the efficiency gains of Chinese sourcing and the risks associated with growing import concentration, while continuing to support the EU's competitive advantage in the high-value segments of the lift-parts market.