Market evolution: Forklift parts (CN 843120) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of fork-lift truck parts (Combined Nomenclature code 843120) traded between the European Union and the rest of the world over the 2015–2025 period. This product category — encompassing components for fork-lift trucks and other works trucks fitted with lifting or handling equipment — occupies a strategic position in the EU's capital goods value chain. Over the decade, the EU has consistently maintained a positive trade surplus in this segment, with exports growing more rapidly than imports. The analysis reveals three overarching themes: a structural strengthening of EU exports driven by the US market, a dramatic reorientation of import sources with the rise of China and the decline of the UK, and a set of geopolitical and supply-chain shocks that have reshaped trade flows in the latter part of the period.

I. EU export growth outpaces imports, widening the trade surplus

The EU remains a structural net exporter of forklift parts

Throughout the entire 2015–2025 period, the EU has been a consistent net exporter of forklift parts. The trade balance widened significantly, rising from €243.2 million in 2015 to €404.3 million in 2025 — a 66.3% increase. This expansion reflects both the growth of export values and a relative stagnation of import values over the same horizon.

Export volumes and unit values both rose

EU exports grew from €683.3 million (66,173 tonnes) in 2015 to €837.4 million (76,680 tonnes) in 2025, representing increases of 22.6% in value and 15.9% in volume. Export unit values also climbed modestly from €10,326/t to €10,918/t (+5.7%), suggesting that the EU has retained pricing power and maintained its position in higher-value-added segments of the forklift parts market.

Import volumes surged while unit prices fell sharply

A striking pattern emerges on the import side: while the total value of imports barely changed (−1.6%), the volume imported surged by 17.5%, from 133,334 tonnes to 156,652 tonnes. This was counterbalanced by a 16.2% decline in import unit values, from €3,301/t to €2,765/t. This price compression is consistent with increased sourcing from lower-cost origins — most notably China — and points to a structural shift in the EU's import basket toward cheaper, higher-volume inputs.

II. Geopolitical realignments reshape trade partner portfolios

China has become the EU's dominant import source for forklift parts

The most dramatic shift on the import side has been the near-doubling of EU imports from China, which rose from €113.8 million in 2015 to €227.0 million in 2025 — a 99.6% increase. China's share of EU forklift parts imports has grown correspondingly, making it by far the largest single supplier. The concentration index (HHI) for imports rose from 1,944 to 3,084 over the period, reflecting a meaningful increase in supplier concentration. Other Asian-origin suppliers such as India (+198.6%) and Sri Lanka (+120.8%) also recorded strong growth, though from much smaller bases.

Brexit and geopolitical sanctions have reshaped traditional trade flows

Two major structural disruptions stand out. First, EU imports from the United Kingdom collapsed by 61.1%, from €141.1 million to €54.9 million. The UK was the EU's largest forklift parts supplier in 2015; by 2025 it has been overtaken by China by a factor of more than four. This decline is consistent with the post-Brexit introduction of customs barriers, rules-of-origin requirements, and broader supply-chain reorientation away from the UK. Second, EU exports to Russia fell by 90.6%, from €25.4 million to just €2.4 million. The shock detection identifies this as a severe supply shock centred on 2024, with a −97.9% shift — almost certainly a consequence of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, EU exports to the US surged by 72.7%, from €168.3 million to €290.6 million, making the United States by far the EU's largest export market and the primary engine of export growth.

The US has become the anchor of EU export demand

The United States alone accounted for €290.6 million of EU forklift parts exports in 2025, representing roughly 34.7% of total extra-EU exports — up from about 24.6% in 2015. This growing dependence on a single market is reflected in the export HHI, which rose from 1,118 to 1,717 over the period. Other notable export partners include Brazil (+120.5%), which emerged as a significant growth market, and the United Kingdom (+4.0%), which remained stable despite broader geopolitical turbulence. The partner-level volatility data confirms that EU–Russia export flows were the most volatile (coefficient of variation: 0.432), consistent with the sanctions-driven disruption.

III. A highly specialised EU production base with declining trade intensity

EU production of forklift parts has grown dramatically

According to production data, the value of EU production in this product class grew from €2.83 billion to €9.61 billion — a 239.1% increase over the period. This explosive growth suggests that the forklift parts sector has been a significant beneficiary of the broader European industrial expansion and, potentially, of reshoring or near-shoring trends. Against this backdrop, the stable-to-declining import value and the rising export value indicate that the EU has been able to meet a larger share of both domestic and foreign demand from its own production base.

Central and Eastern European economies show growing specialisation

The specialisation analysis reveals that within the EU, the most specialised exporters of forklift parts in 2025 are Estonia (RSCA: 0.81), Czechia (RSCA: 0.44), Sweden (RSCA: 0.35), and Italy (RSCA: 0.31). Czechia stands out as a major production and export hub, accounting for 12.4% of EU forklift parts exports. The presence of several Central and Eastern European economies among the most specialised suggests that supply-chain integration within the EU, combined with lower labour costs, has attracted forklift component manufacturing to this region. At the other end, Southern European economies such as Croatia (RSCA: −0.98), Greece (RSCA: −0.94), and Portugal (RSCA: −0.88) show no meaningful specialisation in this product.

Trade intensity has declined, suggesting a more domestically oriented market

Two measures of EU openness in this segment — trade intensity and export propensity — both fell by roughly 19% over the period. Trade intensity (trade as a share of production) dropped from 56.7% to 45.8%, while export propensity (exports as a share of production) declined from 47.6% to 38.3%. This is a natural consequence of the tripling of production value: as the EU's own production base expanded, the relative share of trade in total output shrank, even as absolute trade volumes continued to grow. The net import reliance remained negative throughout (confirming net exporter status), improving from −36.2% to −32.2%.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU forklift parts market has undergone a profound structural transformation. The EU has consolidated its position as a net exporter and a major global production centre, with output tripling in value and the trade surplus widening by 66%. Export growth has been anchored by the US market, while import sourcing has shifted decisively toward China, which has nearly doubled its share at the expense of the UK and Japan. The import landscape has been reshaped by two major forces: Brexit, which triggered a 61% drop in UK-origin imports, and sanctions against Russia, which virtually eliminated EU forklift exports to that market by 2024. Meanwhile, the concentration of both imports and exports has increased, raising questions about supplier and buyer diversification — though the EU's deepening domestic production base provides a degree of insulation from external supply shocks. Looking ahead, the growing dominance of China as a supplier and the US as a buyer will be key dynamics to watch, alongside the continued specialisation of Central European economies within the EU's internal value chain.