Market evolution: Leather shoe uppers (CN 64061010) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the EU's external trade in leather shoe uppers (CN 64061010) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers leather uppers and parts thereof used in footwear manufacturing, excluding stiffeners — a key intermediate input for the European shoe industry. Throughout the period, the EU maintained a substantial structural trade deficit: in 2025, imports stood at €709.2 million while exports reached only €68.4 million, implying a net trade deficit of €640.8 million. EU production value declined from €749 million in 2015 to €570 million in 2025 (–23.9%), confirming a long-term erosion of domestic capacity. Against this backdrop, three major dynamics have shaped the market over the decade.
1. A volume-driven contraction masked by rising unit values
Trade volumes fell sharply across both imports and exports
Between 2015 and 2025, import quantities declined by 29.5%, from 19,948 tonnes to 14,069 tonnes, while export quantities fell even more steeply at 45.7%, from 2,587 tonnes to 1,404 tonnes. This widespread volume decline reflects structural shifts in global footwear supply chains and reduced EU demand for physical leather uppers.
| Flow | 2015 (t) | 2025 (t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | 19,948 | 14,069 | –29.5 |
| Exports | 2,587 | 1,404 | –45.7 |
Unit values surged, compensating for part of the volume decline
Rising prices per tonne partially offset falling volumes in value terms. Export unit values increased by 52.0% (from €32,052/t to €48,707/t), while import unit values rose by 39.2% (from €36,201/t to €50,404/t). These increases likely reflect a combination of raw material cost inflation (especially post-2021), a shift toward higher-quality or more processed uppers, and general inflationary pressures in global manufacturing.
The import value held relatively stable despite the volume contraction
Because of rising unit values, total import value declined only modestly (–1.8%), from €722.2 million to €709.2 million. By contrast, export value fell more significantly (–17.5%), from €82.9 million to €68.4 million. The EU's net import reliance thus widened from 40.0% to 53.9%, indicating a growing structural dependency on foreign suppliers for this intermediate good.
2. A deep geographic restructuring of supply and demand corridors
Southern and eastern European neighbourhood gained share as Asian suppliers lost ground
Among the EU's top import partners, the strongest growth was recorded by Albania (+52.9%, reaching €100.7 million) and Tunisia (+35.7%, reaching €115.7 million). India remained the largest single supplier at €143.5 million but with flat growth (–2.5%). By contrast, Vietnam (–39.0%) and Ukraine (–69.6%) saw pronounced declines. This suggests a reshoring or near-shoring tendency, with EU manufacturers increasingly sourcing from Mediterranean and Western Balkan partners — regions that benefit from geographical proximity, EU association agreements, and established leather-working traditions.
| Partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 147.1 | 143.5 | –2.5 |
| Tunisia | 85.2 | 115.7 | +35.7 |
| Albania | 65.9 | 100.7 | +52.9 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 67.1 | 65.7 | –2.1 |
| Vietnam | 78.3 | 47.8 | –39.0 |
| Morocco | 44.7 | 40.9 | –8.3 |
| Ukraine | 32.5 | 9.9 | –69.6 |
Export destinations diversified, with post-Brexit UK trade and Western Balkans offshoring rising
On the export side, shipments to the United Kingdom surged by 278.3% (from €1.6 million to €6.2 million), likely reflecting post-Brexit trade recording adjustments and continued supply integration. Exports to Serbia (+22.1%) and Bosnia & Herzegovina (+28.4%) also grew, consistent with the use of these countries as lower-cost assembly platforms. Meanwhile, exports to Tunisia (–42.2%) and Morocco (–22.2%) contracted, suggesting a partial reorientation of manufacturing flows.
Import concentration increased, while export concentration declined
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose from 1,078 to 1,396 (+29.6%), indicating that sourcing became more concentrated among fewer partners. By contrast, the export HHI fell from 2,929 to 1,915 (–34.6%), suggesting that EU exporters diversified their destination markets over the decade. This asymmetric evolution points to supply-side consolidation alongside demand-side diversification.
3. A reconfiguration of intra-EU production and specialisation patterns
Italy and Germany consolidated their import leadership; Central European importers contracted
Within the EU, import flows shifted notably. Italy remained the dominant importer, rising from €259 million to €305 million (+17.7%), confirming its role as the EU's footwear manufacturing hub. Germany also grew (+20.6%). However, Slovakia (–46.9%) and Romania (–88.3%) saw dramatic declines, suggesting a hollowing-out of leather upper assembly activities in Central and Eastern Europe.
| EU Importer | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 259.2 | 305.1 | +17.7 |
| Germany | 81.8 | 98.7 | +20.6 |
| Slovakia | 101.9 | 54.2 | –46.9 |
| Portugal | 59.5 | 57.5 | –3.3 |
| Spain | 51.8 | 44.0 | –15.1 |
| Romania | 40.6 | 4.8 | –88.3 |
| Croatia | 9.0 | 54.9 | +511.0 |
Croatia's imports surged from €9.0 million to €54.9 million (+511.0%), likely reflecting its emergence as an assembly platform within EU supply chains — a trend consistent with its proximity to Western Balkan sourcing hubs.
Germany became a major exporter, reversing its historical role
A remarkable shift occurred in EU export dynamics. Germany's exports of leather uppers surged from €0.4 million to €18.5 million (+4,041.5%), transforming the country from a marginal exporter into the EU's second-largest. This may reflect the growth of specialised German leather processors serving both domestic and export markets, or reclassification effects linked to intra-EU re-exports. Meanwhile, Slovakia's exports collapsed from €49.2 million to €14.1 million (–71.3%), and Spain's fell by 49.6%. Italy remained the top exporter at €22.6 million (+22.8%).
Specialisation remained concentrated in peripheral EU economies
According to revealed comparative advantage data for 2025, Romania (RCA 24.5), Bulgaria (21.2), and Croatia (13.7) displayed the highest specialisation in leather uppers among EU members — despite Romania's near-total withdrawal from importing. This suggests that these countries retain niche production capabilities focused on leather components, even as their integration into large-scale assembly chains has diminished. Core economies such as Italy, while dominant in absolute terms, show more moderate specialisation indices relative to their broader manufacturing base.
Conclusion
The EU market for leather shoe uppers (CN 64061010) between 2015 and 2025 was characterised by three intertwined dynamics: a volume contraction partially masked by rising unit values, a geographic reorientation of trade corridors toward the Mediterranean and Western Balkans, and a reconfiguration of intra-EU production networks that concentrated manufacturing in Italy and Germany while hollowing out Central European assembly platforms. The result is an industry that is smaller in physical volume, more dependent on external supply (net import reliance at 53.9% in 2025), and increasingly trade-intensive (trade intensity at 61.6%). The long-term decline in EU production value (–23.9%) alongside stable import values signals that the structural shift toward external sourcing, while partially moderated by near-shoring trends, remains firmly entrenched.