Market evolution: Hybrid motor cars (CN 87034010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in non-plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles (Combined Nomenclature code 87034010) over the period 2017–2025. The product covers new motor cars equipped with both a spark-ignition internal combustion engine and an electric motor for propulsion, but explicitly excludes plug-in hybrids and specialised vehicles. Reliable trade data for this code begins in 2017, so all comparisons in this report use that year as the baseline. The period under review spans a transformative era for the European automotive industry: the EU's regulatory push toward lower CO₂ emissions, successive supply-chain disruptions (COVID-19, semiconductor shortages), and the accelerating electrification of the car fleet. What emerges from the data is a dramatic story — the EU evolved from a substantial net importer of non-plug-in hybrids into a near-balanced, and at times net-exporting, player in this segment. The analysis below is organised around three central findings.

1. From import dependency to export powerhouse: the EU's production and trade balance revolution

EU production of hybrid vehicles scaled up nearly tenfold

The most striking structural change in this market is the explosive growth of EU domestic production. According to the production volumes, output in number of items rose from 160,000 units at the start of the period to 1,500,000 units by 2025 — an increase of 837.5%. Production value grew even faster, from €2.2 billion to €32 billion (+1,352%), reflecting both higher volumes and a shift toward more expensive hybrid models.

This surge in domestic capacity directly reshaped the EU's external trade position.

The EU's net import reliance collapsed from 65% to near zero

At the beginning of the data window, the EU was a net importer relying on external suppliers for 64.8% of its non-plug-in hybrid car consumption. By 2025, that figure had fallen to just 0.6% — effectively self-sufficiency. At its lowest point, the indicator even turned negative (-104.8%), indicating that the EU was a net exporter in volume terms. The trade balance swung from a deficit of €3.9 billion in 2017 to a surplus of €2.3 billion by 2025, peaking at €13.5 billion in an intermediate year.

Exports grew far faster than imports in both volume and value

While EU imports of hybrid cars tripled over the period (from €4.27 billion to €15.35 billion, +260%), exports grew nearly seventeen-fold — from a modest €360 million to €17.66 billion (overview). In supplementary-unit terms (number of vehicles), exports went from 22,485 to 588,533 vehicles (+2,517%), while imports grew from 229,532 to 779,731 vehicles (+240%). The EU thus became one of the world's largest exporters of non-plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2025.

This asymmetry in growth rates is the defining dynamic of the decade.

2. A broadening and reshaping of trade geography

Concentration fell sharply as trade diversified across more partners

Both import and export markets became significantly less concentrated over the period. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 2,813 to 1,884 (-33%), while for exports it declined from 3,135 to 1,516 (-51.6%). An HHI drop of this magnitude signals a fundamental broadening of the partner base: the EU now trades hybrid cars with a much wider array of countries than it did in 2017.

China's rise as an import source is the most dramatic geographic shift

Among all partner countries, China stands out for the sheer scale of its transformation. EU imports of hybrid cars from China were negligible in 2017 (€303,374) but reached €1.81 billion by 2025 — a change of nearly 600,000%. China thus climbed from an insignificant supplier to the fifth-largest source of hybrid car imports, trailing only Japan, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and South Korea (top partners). However, the volatility of Chinese imports is also the highest of any major partner (coefficient of variation of 1.99), reflecting the rapid but uneven pace of this expansion.

Mexico followed a similar trajectory to China — from essentially zero to €417 million — though on a smaller scale. Together, China and Mexico illustrate how non-traditional suppliers entered the EU hybrid vehicle market as the segment grew.

The EU's export geography was reshaped around the UK, the US, and China

On the export side, the United Kingdom became the EU's single largest destination, growing from €171 million to €5.29 billion (+2,995%). The United States and China followed, both rising from negligible levels to €3.36 billion and €1.66 billion respectively (top partners). Türkiye and South Korea also became significant markets. This diversification of export destinations reduced the EU's dependence on any single partner and underpins the falling HHI on the export side.

Slovakian and German production hubs drove the EU's export surge

Within the EU, the member-state reporting data reveals two dominant export hubs. Germany's exports grew from €58 million to €5.62 billion, consistent with its role as Europe's largest car manufacturer expanding hybrid production across existing platforms. Slovakia's growth was even more dramatic — from just €24,000 to €5.23 billion — likely reflecting the commissioning or expansion of major hybrid vehicle assembly plants on Slovak soil. Spain (€16M → €1.80B), Czechia (€0.39M → €0.76B), Hungary (€1.77M → €0.73B), and France (€5M → €1.39B) also emerged as substantial exporters, illustrating how hybrid production spread across Central and Western Europe.

On the import side, Belgium remained the largest entry point (€1.83B → €4.16B), but Spain and France saw the steepest relative increases (imports into Spain rose +360%, into France +607%), suggesting growing domestic demand for hybrid vehicles in Southern and Western Europe.

3. Rising unit values signal a premium-segment shift and growing EU competitiveness

EU export prices per vehicle nearly doubled, outpacing import price growth

A notable feature of the period is the divergence in unit prices between exports and imports. The average price per exported vehicle rose from €16,013 to €30,010 (+87.4%), while the average price per imported vehicle increased only modestly from €18,585 to €19,686 (+5.9%). By 2025, EU-built hybrid cars commanded a 52% price premium over imported hybrids — a reversal of the 2017 situation, when imports were more expensive than exports.

This premium suggests that EU manufacturers moved upmarket within the hybrid segment, producing heavier, more feature-rich vehicles (the per-tonne price increase of 41% for exports versus just 11% for imports corroborates this). It is consistent with European OEMs positioning their hybrid models in the premium and upper-mainstream segments while importing lighter, more affordable hybrids from Japan, Korea, and increasingly China.

The export propensity of the EU in this product category more than tripled

The EU's export propensity — defined as the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 17.8% to 56.6% (+219%). This means that by 2025, more than half of all non-plug-in hybrids produced in the EU were destined for non-EU markets. The trade intensity ratio, which measures total trade (imports + exports) relative to the size of the domestic market, remained broadly stable at around 72–73%, indicating that the overall openness of the market did not change much — but the composition of that trade shifted decisively toward exports.

EU member specialisation confirms Central and Southern Europe as hybrid production champions

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that Slovakia (RSCA 0.63), Spain (0.54), Estonia (0.52), Romania (0.51), and Slovenia (0.50) are the most specialised EU member states in this product category. Slovakia's leading position is consistent with its emergence as a major exporter documented above. At the other end of the spectrum, Greece (-0.99), Bulgaria (-0.97), Italy (-0.95), Latvia (-0.93), and Denmark (-0.91) show little to no specialisation, with Italy's low RSCA (-0.95) particularly notable given its overall weight in EU automotive production — suggesting that Italy's car industry has focused less on non-plug-in hybrids compared to other powertrains.

Conclusion

The decade from 2017 to 2025 witnessed a fundamental restructuring of the EU's position in the global non-plug-in hybrid vehicle market. Starting from a position of heavy import dependency (net import reliance of 65%), the EU leveraged massive increases in domestic production — growing output nearly tenfold — to become a net exporter by 2025. This transformation was geographically broad: exports diversified toward the UK, the US, and China, while imports sources expanded to include China, Mexico, and South Korea alongside traditional partners like Japan and Türkiye. The declining HHI on both sides of the trade ledger confirms this broadening. Simultaneously, EU-built hybrid cars moved upmarket, with export unit prices nearly doubling to over €30,000 per vehicle — well above the €19,686 average for imports — reflecting the premium positioning of European manufacturers. Slovakia and Germany emerged as the EU's twin export powerhouses, while Belgium remained the primary import gateway. The data paints a picture of an industry that, despite supply-chain disruptions and pandemic shocks, successfully scaled up hybrid production, diversified its trade relationships, and repositioned itself from a net buyer to a net seller on the world stage — all within the span of a single decade.