Market evolution: Hot-rolled zinc-coated alloy steel (CN 722592) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in hot-rolled or cold-rolled zinc-coated flat-rolled alloy steel products (excluding electrolytically coated and silicon-electrical steel) under CN code 722592 from 2015 to 2025. The decade was characterized by significant expansion in both the value and volume of trade, with the EU solidifying its position as a net exporter. Major shifts occurred in the geographical direction of trade, influenced by structural market changes, price dynamics, and significant supply chain events.
1. The EU's Export Surge: Expansion and Diversification
The period saw a pronounced strengthening of the EU's export performance, driven by value growth outpacing volume growth, indicating a move towards higher-value trade.
Export value more than doubled, significantly outstripping volume growth
Total EU export value grew by 99.8%, from €492.2 million in 2015 to €983.4 million in 2025. This expansion was not merely a function of increased quantity; export volumes grew by 28.4% over the same period. The more substantial rise in value reflects a dramatic increase in export prices, which rose by 51.5% from €743/t to €1,126/t. This price evolution suggests a shift in the EU's export basket or increased pricing power in key markets. (EU trade overview)
Traditional partners faced declining shares as new markets rose
The destination for EU exports underwent a clear reconfiguration. While the United Kingdom remained the top partner by value in 2025, its share fell significantly, with its export value declining by 31.1% from €211.4 million to €145.8 million. In contrast, exports to Türkiye surged by 328.5% to €237.3 million, to the United States by 274.3% to €176.2 million, and to South Africa by 307.4% to €120.5 million. Morocco emerged as a major new destination, with exports growing by nearly 3,500%.
| Partner | Export Value 2015 (€ million) | Export Value 2025 (€ million) | Change (2015-2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 211.4 | 145.8 | -31.1% |
| Türkiye | 55.4 | 237.3 | +328.5% |
| United States | 47.1 | 176.2 | +274.3% |
| Mexico | 28.6 | 117.9 | +312.6% |
| South Africa | 29.6 | 120.5 | +307.4% |
| Morocco | 1.6 | 56.4 | +3,489.9% |
Export supply became less concentrated, indicating diversified market access
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports by value decreased by 34.4% from 2,279 in 2015 to 1,495 in 2025. This decline from a moderately concentrated market to a competitive one demonstrates a deliberate and successful diversification of export destinations, reducing dependency on any single partner and enhancing market resilience. (Export concentration HHI)
2. Import Dynamics: Growth, Volatility, and Geopolitical Shifts
Imports also expanded substantially, though their structure and price evolution differed from exports, revealing vulnerabilities in specific supply channels.
Import volumes grew at a faster rate than export volumes
EU imports increased by 226.2% in value (from €78.7 million to €256.6 million) and 159.3% in quantity. The average import price rose by 25.8% to €840/t in 2025, which is €286/t lower than the average export price. This price differential, coupled with the higher volume growth, points to strong demand for this product within the EU and the attractiveness of external supply sources.
The United Kingdom and China became dominant but volatile import sources
The import landscape shifted dramatically. The United Kingdom, likely bolstered by post-Brexit trade reconfigurations, saw its exports to the EU grow by 2,041% to become the top supplier at €88.5 million. China also expanded its share, growing by 469% to €102.9 million. However, traditional partners like Brazil saw their market share collapse (-99.8%). The import market became more concentrated, with the value-based HHI rising by 22.5% to 3,082.
| Partner | Import Value 2015 (€ million) | Import Value 2025 (€ million) | Change (2015-2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 4.1 | 88.5 | +2,040.5% |
| China | 18.1 | 102.9 | +469.4% |
| Korea, Republic of | 28.7 | 35.6 | +24.0% |
| Türkiye | 15.9 | 23.9 | +50.1% |
| India | <0.1 | 0.35 | +2,401.4% |
| Brazil | 11.5 | 0.02 | -99.8% |
Several import channels exhibited extreme volatility and price shocks
Analysis of coefficient of variation reveals highly unstable supply from several partners. Brazil (2.13), India (2.11), and Serbia (1.87) showed the highest volatility in import values. A major price shock was detected in 2022 for imports from China, where prices surged abnormally by 76.4% against historical trends, highlighting the vulnerability of relying on key suppliers during periods of global market stress (e.g., energy cost spikes, post-pandemic disruptions). (Import volatility and shocks)
3. Internal Capacity and Specialisation Underpin the Trade Position
The EU's robust trade performance is supported by an underlying domestic production base that shows signs of consolidation and increasing value.
EU production value increased at a far faster rate than volume
The most striking internal trend is the leap in domestic production value, which grew by 340.5% from €1.82 billion to €8.00 billion between 2015 and 2025. In contrast, production volumes grew by 109.0%. This implies a dramatic increase in the average unit value of production within the EU, aligning with the observed rise in export prices and suggesting a move towards higher-grade or more processed products. (EU production volumes and values)
A few specialised Member States anchor the EU's competitive export advantage
Specialisation is highly concentrated. Austria, Finland, and Slovakia have the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores (0.75, 0.67, 0.65 respectively), indicating they are the EU's most competitive producers of this steel product. Austria, for instance, dedicates 23.1% of its relevant industrial production to this code. This specialised core drives the EU's export capacity. (EU specialisation map)
The net trade position remains solidly in surplus, with growing trade integration
Throughout the period, the EU remained a net exporter. The trade balance in value terms grew by 75.7% to €726.7 million. Net import reliance was consistently negative (around -12% in 2025), confirming a structural surplus. However, trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) increased by 12.8% to 15.1%, indicating that this market has become more integrated into global trade flows over the decade. (EU trade intensity and net reliance)
Conclusion
The EU market for CN 722592 evolved dynamically between 2015 and 2025. The Union successfully transformed into a more valuable and diversified exporter, tapping into strong growth markets in North America, Türkiye, and Africa. Internally, production shifted towards higher-value outputs, supported by specialised clusters in a handful of Member States. While import dependency grew, driven by significant volumes from the UK and China, this came with increased price volatility and supply risks, notably highlighted by the 2022 price shock. Overall, the EU's strong production base and strategic diversification have cemented a positive trade balance, though managing the costs and reliability of imported supplies remains a key challenge.