Market evolution: High-speed steel flat-rolled products (CN 72254015) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in flat-rolled products of high-speed steel (Customs Code 72254015) from 2015 to 2025. The period is characterised by a significant contraction in trade volumes, a major reshuffling of trade partners, and a notable increase in the EU's net export position. These dynamics reflect broader shifts in global trade flows, sourcing strategies, and the impact of specific price shocks. The analysis is based on trade overview data and related structural indicators.

Trade Dynamics: A Story of Contraction and Reorientation

The EU's trade in high-speed steel flat-rolled products underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025, marked by a steep decline in import volumes and a geographical shift in key trading relationships.

A Collapse in Import Volumes and Diversification Away from Traditional Suppliers

The most dramatic change occurred on the import side. Total import value fell by over 90%, from €7.9 million in 2015 to €0.77 million in 2025. This decline was even more pronounced in volume terms, with quantities dropping by 98.5%, from 5,790 tonnes to just 84 tonnes. Consequently, the average import price surged by 565.6%, indicating a shift towards lower-volume, higher-value niche sourcing.

The composition of import partners changed radically. The United States, the dominant supplier in 2015 (€7.08 million), saw its exports to the EU virtually eliminate by 2025, falling to €47,043. Similarly, imports from Japan collapsed from €275,180 to near zero. In contrast, China emerged as a more consistent, though still modest, supplier, with import values rising by 49.4% over the period, despite significant annual fluctuations.

Resilient Export Values Despite Volume Reductions

EU exports followed a different trajectory. While export volumes decreased by 31.7% (from 1,099 to 750 tonnes), export value fell by a more moderate 23.7% (€11.89m to €9.08m), due to a substantial 11.8% increase in average export prices. This suggests EU producers maintained pricing power and/or shifted towards higher-value export segments.

The geographical pattern of exports also shifted. Sales to the United States and Taiwan, key markets in 2015, declined by 55% and 72% respectively by value. Meanwhile, exports to South Korea remained relatively stable, and shipments to Canada and China grew significantly, by 62.3% and 45.3% respectively.

Improvement in the Trade Balance and Concentration of Flows

The combined effect of collapsing imports and more resilient exports was a dramatic improvement in the EU's trade balance, which shifted from a surplus of €3.97 million in 2015 to €8.31 million in 2025. The EU became a much stronger net exporter. Furthermore, the concentration of imports (HHI) increased, indicating that the few remaining imports came from a narrower set of suppliers, while export concentration decreased slightly, pointing to a modest diversification of destination markets.

Production and Specialisation: Internal EU Adjustments

Behind the trade figures lie shifts in EU production capacity and the internal industrial specialisation of Member States, which help explain the changing external trade patterns.

A Decline in EU Production Volumes

EU production of this specific steel product fell over the period. Physical output decreased by 27.8%, from 100,000 tonnes in 2015 to 72,170 tonnes in 2025. The decline in production value was less severe, at 6.6% (from €98.2 million to €91.7 million), again highlighting the trend of rising unit values. This contraction in domestic production volume, coupled with the even steeper fall in imports, underscores the specific contraction of the market segment within the EU.

Specialisation is Concentrated in Austria and Germany

Analysis of industrial specialisation reveals that production of high-speed steel flat-rolled products is highly concentrated within the EU. Austria and Germany are the only two members with a significant Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), scoring 0.84 and 0.41 respectively. Austria, in particular, is a dominant producer, accounting for nearly 39% of EU production value despite its smaller total economy. This indicates a strong niche specialisation. In contrast, several large EU economies show no comparative advantage in this product.

The Dominance of Austrian and German Exporters

The production specialisation is mirrored in trade flows. Within the EU, Austria and Germany were the largest exporters throughout the period. Austria's exports, while declining in value, remained substantial (€5.36m in 2025). Germany's export value actually increased by 28.8% to €3.28 million. This confirms that the EU's external export profile for this product is largely driven by the industrial capabilities of these two key Member States.

Volatility, Shocks, and Increasing Autonomy

The period was not only defined by trend declines but also by episodes of significant volatility and price shocks, which occurred alongside a structural increase in the EU's trade autonomy.

Pronounced Price Volatility and a Major 2022 Supply Shock

Trade flows exhibited high volatility, particularly on the import side. The coefficient of variation for import values from the United States was exceptionally high at 2.82, indicating extreme year-to-year fluctuations. Export relationships also showed volatility, though generally lower.

This volatility culminated in specific price shocks detected in 2022. The most significant was a 1,355.9% abnormal price shift in imports from the United States, accounting for nearly 50% of import value that year. Concurrently, EU export prices to South Korea and Taiwan also experienced major shocks (41.4% and 55.5% shifts, respectively). These 2022 shocks likely reflect a combination of post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, energy cost inflation, and possibly trade policy changes, severely affecting unit values.

A Structural Trend Towards Greater Self-Sufficiency

The most salient structural trend is the EU's movement towards greater autonomy in this market. The net import reliance metric, which was already negative (-17.4% in 2015, indicating the EU was a net exporter), improved to -8.8% in 2025. This shows that while the EU remained a net exporter, its export surplus as a share of domestic use became less pronounced. This is consistent with the decline in both production and export volumes.

Furthermore, trade intensity and export propensity both fell by over 46%, indicating that the EU's economy became less reliant on international trade for this specific product, with a higher share of production being consumed internally.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for high-speed steel flat-rolled products underwent a significant consolidation. The most striking feature was the near-disappearance of imports, leading to a strong improvement in the trade balance and reduced vulnerability to foreign suppliers. Internally, production volumes contracted, but the EU maintained and even strengthened its export position through higher-value shipments, driven primarily by specialised Austrian and German producers. The period was also marked by extreme price volatility, culminating in severe shocks in 2022. Ultimately, the data points towards a market that became more self-contained and internally focused, with reduced overall trade volumes but sustained niche export competitiveness.