Market evolution: Gummy sweets (CN 17049065) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in gum and jelly confectionery (customs code 17049065) with non-EU countries between 2015 and 2025. The period is characterised by substantial growth in both exports and imports, transforming the EU's position in this market. The analysis reveals a narrative of the EU becoming a dominant net exporter, underpinned by significant production expansion and specialisation in key member states, while navigating a generally stable but increasingly diversified trade landscape.

1. The EU's strengthening position as a dominant net exporter

The most striking trend over the decade is the EU's consolidation as a major net exporter of gummy sweets. The value of EU exports grew far more rapidly than imports, resulting in a massive and expanding trade surplus.

Exports surging past imports: EU export value grew by 147.8% from €383 million in 2015 to €948 million in 2025. In contrast, import value, while also growing by 143.5% to €218 million, remained a fraction of exports. This dynamic nearly tripled the EU's trade surplus from €293 million to €731 million (Overview of EU trade balance).
Core export markets driving growth: The United States and the United Kingdom are the paramount export destinations. The U.S. market saw explosive growth, with EU exports increasing by 230.8% to €218 million in 2025, overtaking the UK as the top destination by value. The UK, the historical largest partner, also grew robustly by 135.1% to €269 million. Canada emerged as a key growth market, with trade increasing by 354.1% (Key EU export partners).
Import diversification away from traditional sources: While the UK remains the largest source of imports (€55 million), its share has diminished. The most dynamic growth in imports originated from China (+1256.6%), Türkiye (+179.8%), and Ukraine (+726.3%), indicating a significant diversification of the EU's import base (Key EU import partners).

2. Production expansion and internal specialisation as the engine of export growth

The EU's formidable export performance is not coincidental; it is directly linked to substantial growth in its domestic production capacity and clear patterns of specialisation within the bloc.

Robust increase in production volumes and value: EU production (for this product) grew by 45.7% in quantity (from 753 million kg to 1.1 billion kg) and by 74.9% in value (from €2.14 billion to €3.74 billion) over the period. This indicates not only more production but also a shift towards higher-value items (EU production volumes).
Centres of excellence in production: Specialisation data for 2025 reveals a clear geographical concentration. Denmark, Spain, and Sweden exhibit very high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores, indicating they are highly specialised in producing and exporting gummy sweets relative to their overall trade. Spain, in particular, commands a large 16% share of EU production in this sector, highlighting its role as a manufacturing powerhouse (EU specialisation by member state).
Internal leadership in trade: Germany and Spain are the leading EU exporters by value, together accounting for a significant portion of the bloc's external sales. Germany's exports grew by 137.7% to €283 million, while Spain's more than tripled (+211.0%) to €266 million in 2025. On the import side, the Netherlands saw a remarkable 1230.6% increase, rising to become the third-largest importer, suggesting its role as a key logistics and redistribution hub within the single market (Leading EU member state traders).

3. A stable but evolving trade ecosystem with emerging vulnerabilities

While overall trade patterns show consistency and low concentration among primary partners, the data reveals underlying volatility with specific countries and a shifting risk profile for the EU's sector.

Stable core partnerships with low volatility: The EU's trade with its largest partners, such as the United Kingdom (imports and exports) and Norway (exports), demonstrates high stability, reflected in low coefficients of variation (CV). This indicates reliable, long-term trade relationships that underpin the market's predictability (Trade volatility by partner).
Price shocks and supply-side turbulence: Despite overall stability, specific partners experienced significant price shocks. A notable example is a 124.3% price spike in EU exports to Türkiye around 2018, with an abnormality score of 295.2, suggesting a major, one-off market disruption or contract shift. The highly volatile imports from China (CV: 1.18) also point to a potentially less predictable supply chain (Detected trade shocks).
Increased global integration and reduced import reliance: The EU's export propensity (export share of production) more than tripled from 9.1% to 26.6%, and its trade intensity similarly grew, signifying a sector deeply integrated into global markets. Concurrently, the net import reliance turned sharply negative, falling from -7.5% to -27.6%. This confirms the structural shift from a near-balanced market to one with a large, persistent export surplus, which inherently reduces dependency on foreign supply (Autonomy and vulnerability metrics).

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's gummy sweets market underwent a transformative expansion, characterised by rapid export-led growth. Bolstered by increased production and a strong specialisation base in member states like Spain and Germany, the bloc cemented its role as a leading global supplier, particularly to the U.S. and UK. While the core trade relationships remain stable, the market's growing integration brings exposure to volatility from emerging partners. The most definitive outcome is the EU's transition into a firmly established net exporter, a trend that has fundamentally reshaped its trade profile and reduced its import dependency for this product category.