Market evolution: Gas cooking appliances (CN 73211190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in gas cooking appliances classified under Customs code 73211190 — a category covering domestic baking, frying, grilling and cooking appliances (excluding those with ovens) made of iron or steel and powered by gas or by both gas and other fuels.

Over the period 2015–2025, the EU market for these products underwent a profound structural transformation. Three main dynamics stand out: (1) a dramatic decline in European production paired with surging imports, fundamentally altering the EU's trade position; (2) a sharp concentration of import supply in China, raising questions about supply-chain resilience; and (3) a geographic realignment of EU export markets, with the United States and the Middle East overtaking traditional European partners. These dynamics are explored in detail below.

1. The Decline of European Production and the Shift to Net Import Dependence

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 decade is the collapse of EU domestic production and the corresponding surge in imports, which together transformed the EU from a relatively self-sufficient market into one heavily reliant on foreign supply.

EU production fell by two-thirds in volume and nearly half in value

EU production of gas cooking appliances declined from 4,964,130 units in 2015 to just 1,676,311 units in 2025 — a drop of 66.2%. In value terms, output fell from €352.7 million to €196.1 million (−44.4%), with a trough of €134.8 million recorded in an intervening year. The fact that the value decline is smaller than the volume decline indicates that average production values rose, suggesting a partial shift towards higher-value product lines. Nonetheless, the scale of the production contraction is severe and underpins the entire market evolution.

Imports surged in both volume and value

Over the same period, EU imports grew from €361.5 million (73,015 tonnes) to €542.5 million (112,972 tonnes) — increases of 50.1% and 54.7% respectively. At their peak, imports reached €845.4 million in value and 148,487 tonnes in volume during an intervening year. In supplementary units (number of items), imports rose from 5.5 million to 9.4 million pieces (+70.1%), while the per-unit import price declined from €65.5 to €57.8 (−11.8%), indicating that the growing volume of imports consists largely of lower-priced goods.

Exports stagnated and the trade deficit widened sharply

EU exports grew modestly in value (+5.4%, from €269.5 million to €284.0 million) while declining in mass (−2.3%, from 28,875 to 28,212 tonnes). Crucially, the number of items exported fell by 23.4% (from 2.14 million to 1.64 million pieces), even as the per-unit export price rose sharply from €125.6 to €172.9 (+37.6%). This pattern is consistent with European manufacturers concentrating on higher-end, premium products while losing market share in volume terms.

The combined effect was a deterioration of the trade balance from −€92.1 million in 2015 to −€258.5 million in 2025 (−180.8%), with the worst deficit reaching −€554.8 million in an intervening year. The EU's net import reliance swung from −34.7% to +49.5%, confirming the structural shift from near self-sufficiency to significant import dependence.

Table 1: Key trade indicators, 2015 vs. 2025

2. China's Rising Dominance and Growing Import Concentration

The surge in EU imports was overwhelmingly driven by one country: China. This section examines how Chinese suppliers came to dominate the EU market and the resulting increase in import concentration.

China accounted for the vast majority of import growth

China's exports to the EU in this product category rose from €233.8 million in 2015 to €447.9 million in 2025 (+91.6%), reaching a peak of €697.5 million in an intervening year. China's share of total EU imports therefore increased substantially, as its growth outpaced the overall import increase. At the same time, several other traditional suppliers saw their share decline:

Table 2: Top EU import partners by value, 2015 vs. 2025

The United States, the United Kingdom, and Hong Kong all saw their exports to the EU decline dramatically — by 87.4%, 67.1%, and 88.6% respectively. Hong Kong's collapse is consistent with a re-routing of trade flows directly from mainland China rather than through intermediaries. The UK's decline likely reflects post-Brexit trade restructuring. Türkiye was the only other partner to show meaningful growth (+49.1%), but at €62.3 million it remained far behind China.

Import concentration reached its highest level in 2025

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports rose from 4,527 in 2015 to 6,955 in 2025 — an increase of 53.7% and the highest value observed in the entire period. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market; at nearly 7,000, the EU's import supply structure for gas cooking appliances is extremely concentrated. By contrast, the export HHI remained low (789–819), reflecting a relatively diversified EU export base across multiple destination markets.

Import and export concentration asymmetry signals structural vulnerability

The divergence between rising import concentration and stable export dispersion reflects a fundamental asymmetry. The EU sells to many markets but depends on very few suppliers. Combined with surging trade intensity (from 44.9% to 106.5%) and export propensity (from 38.1% to 120.6%), this creates a structural dependency. Should supply from China be disrupted — whether by tariffs, logistics bottlenecks, or geopolitical events — the EU would face significant challenges in sourcing alternative supply, given the erosion of its own production base.

3. Geographic Realignment of EU Export Markets

While imports became more concentrated, the EU's export geography underwent its own transformation, driven by geopolitical events, trade policy shifts, and evolving demand patterns.

Traditional European and Russian markets declined

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest single export destination, but its share fell significantly: exports dropped from €54.1 million to €31.9 million (−41.0%). Russia, which was the second-largest market in 2015 at €33.8 million, saw exports collapse to €5.7 million (−83.1%) — a decline consistent with the EU sanctions regime following 2022. A price shock for Russian-bound exports was detected in 2022, with an abnormality score of 5.1. Australia, another major market, also declined from €29.3 million to €16.9 million (−42.2%).

The United States emerged as the leading export market

The most dramatic shift was the rise of the United States as the EU's top export destination by 2025, with sales surging from €13.2 million to €60.6 million (+359.3%). This growth, however, was highly volatile, with a coefficient of variation of 1.57 — the highest among all major export partners — suggesting that it may be driven by specific contracts or policy-driven demand shifts rather than stable long-term trends. Saudi Arabia (+55.5%) and Norway (+68.0%) also grew, while Switzerland (+49.1%) remained a stable, lower-volatility market (CV of 0.14).

Table 3: Top EU export destinations by value, 2015 vs. 2025

Poland emerged as a major EU exporter while Italy's lead eroded

Among EU member states, the most notable development was Poland's rise: its exports grew from €18.4 million to €64.6 million (+251.4%), making it the second-largest EU exporter by 2025. Italy, historically the dominant EU exporter in this category, saw its exports decline from €135.5 million to €94.9 million (−30.0%), though it remained the largest single exporter. Sweden also saw remarkable growth (+400.5%, from €1.8 million to €9.2 million). Germany and Spain maintained relatively stable export volumes. The specialisation analysis confirms that Denmark, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Italy remain the most specialised EU producers in this segment.

Table 4: Top EU member state exporters, 2015 vs. 2025

Diverging volatility profiles reflect different market risks

The volatility analysis reveals contrasting stability across export markets. Mature, geographically close markets such as Switzerland (CV 0.14), Norway (0.17), and the UK (0.24) show relatively low volatility, consistent with long-standing trade relationships. By contrast, the US (CV 1.57) and Algeria (0.59) are much more volatile, suggesting that recent export gains in these markets may be more fragile. On the import side, China showed moderate volatility (CV 0.31), while several smaller suppliers — notably Hong Kong (0.95), Taiwan (1.07), and Macao (1.60) — exhibited extreme instability, though their absolute volumes are small.

Conclusion

The EU market for gas cooking appliances (CN 73211190) has undergone a fundamental structural shift over the 2015–2025 decade. Domestic production has contracted by two-thirds in volume, while imports — overwhelmingly from China — have surged by over 50% in value. The EU's trade position has shifted from relative self-sufficiency to significant net import dependence, with a trade deficit that more than doubled to €258.5 million.

This concentration of imports in a single supplier has pushed the import HHI to nearly 7,000, far above the threshold typically considered indicative of high concentration. While the EU has maintained a diversified export base, its export geography has been reshaped by geopolitical forces: the collapse of trade with Russia, the post-Brexit decline in UK-bound exports, and the rapid growth of US-bound sales — a growth path that itself carries high volatility risk. Within the EU, Poland has emerged as a major production and export hub, partially offsetting Italy's declining share.

Looking ahead, the combination of eroded domestic production capacity and extreme import concentration presents a clear vulnerability for the EU. Policymakers seeking to enhance supply-chain resilience in this segment will need to consider both the revival of domestic manufacturing and the diversification of import sources away from near-total reliance on China.