Market evolution: Fresh or chilled swine carcasses (CN 020311) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the EU's extra-Union trade in fresh or chilled carcases and half-carcases of swine (customs code 020311) over the period 2015–2025. The product encompasses both domestic swine carcases (02031110) and non-domestic swine carcases (02031190). Over the decade, the EU has consolidated its position as a net exporter of this product category, with export value rising by 66.3% while import value declined by 4.4%. The resulting trade surplus widened from €25.7 million to €69.4 million — a 170% increase. These aggregate trends, however, mask significant shifts in partner geography, intra-EU leadership, and price dynamics that are examined in the sections below.
Overview on the Trade Dashboard
1. From modest surplus to decisive net-exporter position
1.1 Export growth outpaced import contraction
Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of fresh or chilled swine carcasses rose from €63.4 million to €105.4 million (+66.3%) in value and from 37,824 tonnes to 46,739 tonnes (+23.6%) in volume. Over the same period, imports fell from €37.7 million to €36.0 million (−4.4%) in value and from 31,536 tonnes to 24,800 tonnes (−21.4%) in volume. The combination of expanding exports and shrinking imports drove the trade surplus from €25.7 million in 2015 to a record €69.4 million in 2025.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 63.4 | 105.4 | +66.3% |
| Export volume (t) | 37,824 | 46,739 | +23.6% |
| Export unit price (€/t) | 1,676 | 2,255 | +34.6% |
| Import value (€M) | 37.7 | 36.0 | −4.4% |
| Import volume (t) | 31,536 | 24,800 | −21.4% |
| Import unit price (€/t) | 1,194 | 1,451 | +21.5% |
| Trade balance (€M) | 25.7 | 69.4 | +169.8% |
1.2 Unit prices rose on both sides, but faster on the export side
Export unit prices increased from €1,676/t to €2,255/t (+34.6%), while import unit prices rose from €1,194/t to €1,451/t (+21.5%). The widening price gap — export prices now exceed import prices by roughly €800/t — reflects both the higher quality or destination premium commanded by EU carcasses and the structural dominance of the United Kingdom as a supplier (whose prices remain below EU export prices). The peak export price of €2,738/t was recorded in 2023, coinciding with the post-African-Swine-Fever tightness in European supply.
1.3 Domestic swine carcases dominate both trade flows
The sub-product 02031110 (domestic swine carcases) accounted for the vast majority of both imports and exports throughout the period. In 2025, domestic swine carcases represented 97.8% of import volume (24,244 t of 24,800 t) and 87.0% of export volume (40,675 t of 46,739 t). Non-domestic swine carcases (02031190) remained a niche segment, though export volumes in this sub-category grew from 3,503 t in 2015 to 6,064 t in 2025 — suggesting growing cross-border movements of speciality or heritage-breed carcasses.
2. Geographic reorientation: Western Balkans gain, China fades
2.1 The United Kingdom remains the dominant partner on both sides
The United Kingdom is by far the EU's largest trade partner for fresh or chilled swine carcasses, both as an export destination and an import source. In 2025, the UK absorbed €43.0 million in EU exports (40.8% of total) and supplied €36.0 million in imports (essentially 100% of extra-EU imports). Import concentration vis-à-vis the UK reached a near-perfect HHI of 10,000, reflecting the almost complete absence of alternative suppliers. The stability of this bilateral relationship — UK exports grew by 37.9% and UK imports fell by only 4.2% — underpins the overall trade balance.
| Partner | Role | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | Export | 31.2 | 43.0 | +37.9% |
| United Kingdom | Import | 37.6 | 36.0 | −4.2% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | Export | 8.1 | 19.2 | +137.5% |
| Montenegro | Export | 5.5 | 15.2 | +175.6% |
| Norway | Export | 1.2 | 6.8 | +481.0% |
| China | Export | 4.6 | 3.5 | −24.6% |
| Ukraine | Export | 0.4 | 4.7 | +1,174.1% |
2.2 Western Balkans and Eastern Europe became key export growth drivers
The most dynamic export growth over the decade was concentrated in Western Balkan and Eastern European markets. Exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina rose from €8.1 million to €19.2 million (+137.5%), while Montenegro absorbed €15.2 million in 2025, up from €5.5 million (+175.6%). Ukraine emerged as a significant new destination: from a mere €372,159 in 2015 to €4.7 million in 2025 (+1,174%). This pattern likely reflects the progressive integration of these economies into EU trade networks, the phasing-in of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTAs), and growing demand for EU-standard fresh meat in neighbouring regions.
2.3 China's import demand for EU carcasses receded
China, which absorbed €12.7 million in EU exports at its peak, saw its imports from the EU fall back to €3.5 million by 2025 (−24.6% vs. 2015). The volatility of this corridor was high (coefficient of variation of 0.85), and the 2025 level is well below the 2019 peak. This decline is consistent with the recovery of China's domestic hog herd after the African Swine Fever crisis of 2018–2019 and the subsequent reduction in China's need for imported pork carcases. Meanwhile, on the import side, Chinese-origin imports to the EU collapsed from €26,490 in 2015 to effectively zero by 2025.
2.4 Intra-EU exporters: Belgium consolidates, Austria and Denmark surge
Among EU Member States, Belgium remained the largest exporter of fresh swine carcasses to non-EU countries throughout the period, rising from €21.9 million to €30.7 million (+40.3%). Austria and Denmark recorded the most dramatic growth: Austria surged from €4.3 million to €16.5 million (+280.9%), while Denmark grew from €278K to €11.8 million (+4,138%). Germany also expanded strongly, from €5.0 million to €17.3 million (+248.6%). Conversely, Italy and the Netherlands saw their export shares decline sharply — Italy from €9.5 million to just €192K (−98.0%), and the Netherlands from €10.2 million to €6.4 million (−37.3%). Slovenia, once a significant exporter (peaking at €16.2 million), effectively exited this trade by 2025 (€859).
On the import side, France underwent the most dramatic shift, rising from just €15,229 in 2015 to €34.5 million in 2025 — effectively replacing Germany as the leading EU importer (Germany fell from €29.4 million to €12.7 million, −56.7%).
3. Price shocks, market concentration, and structural positioning
3.1 Several price shocks were detected in 2022–2023
Three significant price shocks were identified in the data:
| Event | Flow | Year | Abnormality | Price shift | Value share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | Export | 2022 | 8.7 | +33.4% | 14.8% |
| United Kingdom | Import | 2023 | 5.7 | +62.2% | 100.0% |
| Montenegro | Export | 2022 | 2.8 | +26.5% | 17.1% |
The 2022 export price shocks to Bosnia and Herzegovina (abnormality score of 8.7, the highest detected) and Montenegro coincided with the broader European energy and feed-cost crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which drove up production costs and meat prices across the continent. The 2023 import price shock from the UK (abnormality 5.7, +62.2% shift) affected the entire EU import market given the UK's near-monopoly supply position.
3.2 Import concentration remained extreme; export markets gradually diversified
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports hovered near the theoretical maximum of 10,000 throughout the period (from 9,950 in 2015 to 10,000 in 2025), reflecting the near-total dominance of the United Kingdom as an import source. By contrast, the export HHI declined from 2,929 to 2,317 (−20.9%), indicating a meaningful diversification of export destinations. The UK's share of EU exports fell from near-half to just over a third, with the Western Balkans, Norway, and Ukraine absorbing the difference.
3.3 Export volatility varied widely across partners
Coefficients of variation in export values ranged from low (UK at 0.40, Montenegro at 0.36) to very high (Serbia at 1.49, Norway at 1.48, Moldova at 1.10). The most volatile import sources were Norway (CV 2.23) and Switzerland (CV 2.09), though both remained marginal in absolute terms. The relatively low volatility of the UK corridor, despite its large scale, confirms its structural stability for the EU swine carcass trade.
3.4 The EU remained a consistent net exporter with low import reliance
The net import reliance ratio remained negative throughout the period (−0.51 in both 2015 and 2025), confirming the EU's status as a structural net exporter of fresh or chilled swine carcasses. The ratio dipped to −1.92 at its most negative (around the early 2020s), reflecting the exceptional period when the EU's export surplus was largest. Trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) stood at 1.28% in 2025, down from 1.43% in 2015, indicating that while absolute trade grew, production grew faster. EU domestic production of swine meat rose from 5.58 billion kg to 6.90 billion kg (+23.7%) in volume and from €7.14 billion to €11.55 billion (+61.8%) in value, comfortably absorbing export growth.
3.5 Belgium and Denmark stand out as the most specialised EU exporters
In 2025, the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis identified Belgium (0.624) and Denmark (0.621) as the most specialised EU exporters of fresh swine carcasses, alongside Cyprus (0.667, though in absolute terms very small). Germany, despite being a major exporter in absolute terms, showed no particular specialisation in this product. At the other end, Sweden, Romania, Slovenia, Italy, and Finland showed negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers or lack competitive positioning in this category.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter of fresh or chilled swine carcases, with the trade surplus nearly tripling to €69.4 million. This outcome was driven by a combination of rising export volumes and prices on the one hand, and declining import volumes on the other. Geographically, the most notable development was the rapid growth of exports to Western Balkan markets (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro) and Ukraine, partially offsetting the retreat from the Chinese market. The United Kingdom continued to dominate both sides of the trade, but its share of EU exports gradually diminished as markets diversified. On the EU Member State level, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, and Germany emerged as the leading exporters, while France's import role grew dramatically. Price shocks in 2022–2023, linked to the broader European cost-of-production crisis and UK supply dynamics, introduced notable volatility but did not alter the structural trajectory. With domestic production growing and import reliance remaining well below zero, the EU's position in this market segment appears robust, though continued dependence on the UK as the near-exclusive import source warrants monitoring.