Market evolution: Evaporated milk (CN 040291) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of the European Union in evaporated milk (CN 040291) over the period 2015 to 2025. The analysis is based on the provided annual trade data, focusing on key trends in value, volume, pricing, and regional partnerships. Despite a significant decline in export volume, the EU has managed to maintain and even grow export revenue through higher unit prices. Simultaneously, imports have surged, reshaping the bloc's trade balance. The following sections explore these core dynamics, the evolving geographic structure of trade, and the underlying shifts in production and market specialization.

The Paradox of Declining Volumes and Rising Revenues

The most striking feature of the EU's trade in evaporated milk over the decade is the divergence between physical trade volumes and their monetary value. While the quantity of exports contracted sharply, their total value proved far more resilient, pointing to significant shifts in market conditions and product mix.

Exports: Fewer Tonnes, Higher Margins

EU exports of concentrated unsweetened milk experienced a substantial decline in volume, falling by 34.1% from 294,344 tonnes in 2015 to 193,838 tonnes in 2025 (General Overview). This contraction was not mirrored in revenue, which decreased by only 10.5% over the same period, from €437 million to €391 million. This resilience is explained by a dramatic 36.0% increase in the average export price, which rose from €1,483 per tonne to €2,017 per tonne. This price escalation suggests a shift towards higher-value products or substantial input cost pass-through.

Imports: A Surge in Both Volume and Competition

In contrast to exports, EU imports grew robustly. Import volumes more than doubled, surging by 131.6% from 21,962 tonnes to 50,861 tonnes. Import value also rose significantly, by 64.6% to €35 million. However, the average import price fell by 28.9% over the period, ending at €693 per tonne in 2025 (General Overview). This combination of rising volumes and falling prices indicates increasing competitive pressure from international suppliers, likely expanding the variety of products available within the EU market.

A Widening and Deepening Trade Surplus

The EU has maintained a consistent trade surplus in this product category throughout the period. However, its nature changed. In 2015, the surplus stood at €415 million; by 2025, it was €356 million (General Overview). The relative strength of this surplus, measured by the net import reliance, actually deepened from -24% to -51%. This means the EU's export capacity, while shrinking in volume, has grown in importance relative to its domestic consumption, highlighting an increased export orientation of the sector.

Geographic Reorientation: MENA Dominance and a British Import Boom

The geographic pattern of EU trade in evaporated milk underwent a clear reorientation, with exports consolidating in traditional Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) markets and imports becoming heavily dominated by the United Kingdom.

Export Partners: Stability in the MENA Core

The MENA region remained the cornerstone of EU export markets. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia consistently ranked as the top two destinations, accounting for a combined export value of over €140 million in 2025 (Top Partners - Exports). While the UAE saw a slight value increase of 6.9%, Saudi Arabia experienced a modest 6.6% decline. Libya, though still the third-largest market, saw a notable 32.3% drop in export value, indicating market volatility. Meanwhile, the UK emerged as a significant growth market for EU exports, with a 48.9% increase in value.

Import Sources: The Post-Brexit Shift to the UK

The most dramatic change occurred in the import landscape. The United Kingdom became the EU's overwhelmingly dominant supplier. Import value from the UK exploded by 66.7%, from €19.7 million to €32.8 million, and its share of total EU imports grew correspondingly (Top Partners - Imports). This surge, which intensified after 2020, likely reflects new trade flows and supply chain adjustments following Brexit. Other traditional suppliers like Switzerland remained stable, while new sources like Ukraine and Türkiye, though growing from a low base, started to appear.

Volatility and Supply Chain Shocks

Trade volatility varied significantly by partner. Export flows to MENA countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia were relatively stable, with a low coefficient of variation (CV) of around 0.15 (Volatility Bars). In contrast, imports from some partners like China and Australia were highly volatile. A specific price shock was detected for exports to Hong Kong in 2019, where a 10.4% price drop accompanied a high abnormality score, suggesting a significant market disruption that year (Supply Shocks).

Production Consolidation and Market Specialization

Behind the trade figures lie fundamental shifts in EU domestic production and the structural competitiveness of its member states. Production contracted, but certain countries solidified their export specialization.

A Contraction in Domestic Production

EU domestic production of concentrated unsweetened milk fell considerably between 2015 and 2025. Production volume decreased by 30.5%, from 1.15 billion kg to 800 million kg (Production Quantity). Despite this, the production value saw a smaller decline of 4.4%, indicating that unit values within production increased, likely due to inflation and a shift in the product mix towards more valuable segments.

Shifting Export Leadership within the EU

The role of individual EU member states in exports evolved. The Netherlands remained the bloc's largest exporter, though its value fell by 8.2%. Germany, the second-largest exporter, saw a steeper decline of 33.5% (Top Reporters - Exports). In contrast, Belgium and Italy dramatically increased their export shares, with Belgium's value growing by 355.5% and Italy's by an extraordinary 5,564.7%. This suggests a redistribution of export capacity and specialization within the EU, possibly linked to investments in high-value niche products.

Specialization and Market Concentration

Analysis of comparative advantage reveals that in 2025, France, the Netherlands, and Germany held the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) in EU exports of this product, confirming their specialized role. The import side remained highly concentrated, with the UK's dominant position leading to a persistently high Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of over 8,500, indicating a supplier market with limited competition.

Conclusion

The EU market for evaporated milk between 2015 and 2025 underwent a transformation characterized by a paradox of declining physical trade volumes but resilient or growing monetary values. This was driven by significant price inflation in exports and increased competitive pressure on the import side. Geographically, exports remained anchored in MENA countries, while imports became dominated by the United Kingdom in the post-Brexit period. Domestically, production contracted, but export capacity became more specialized and concentrated in specific member states like Belgium and Italy, while traditional powerhouses like Germany saw reduced shares. Overall, the EU's position evolved towards greater self-sufficiency in monetary terms, underpinned by higher prices, even as it became more open to imports in physical volume, setting the stage for a market defined by intense price competition and specialized regional trade flows.