Market evolution: Electrolytic zinc coated steel strip (CN 721220) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, electrolytically plated or coated with zinc (CN 721220), over the period 2015–2025. The EU has been a consistent net exporter of this product throughout the decade, maintaining a trade surplus that ranged from €19.0 million to €30.9 million. However, the period is defined by a pronounced structural contraction in traded volumes — both in exports and imports — accompanied by a significant rise in unit values. These trends reflect a combination of deindustrialisation pressures, the COVID-19 shock, rising raw material and energy costs, and a reshaping of trade partner relationships driven by geopolitical shifts and trade policy interventions. The general overview provides the full trade trajectory for reference.

1. A decade of falling volumes and rising prices

EU exports shrank by volume but were cushioned by price increases

The most striking feature of this market is the divergence between volume and value trends. EU exports of CN 721220 fell from 44,146 tonnes in 2015 to just 13,713 tonnes in 2025 — a decline of 68.9%. Yet over the same period, the average export price rose from €923 per tonne to €1,862 per tonne, an increase of 101.7%. As a result, the decline in export value was far more moderate at 37.4%, from €40.8 million to €25.5 million. This pattern suggests that EU producers increasingly focused on higher-value or niche segments, while the sheer scale of production and export capacity eroded significantly.

Source: General overview

Import volumes collapsed even more dramatically

EU imports of CN 721220 declined from 13,266 tonnes in 2015 to only 2,494 tonnes in 2025, a fall of 81.2%. Import value dropped by 72.0%, from €12.4 million to €3.5 million. The average import price rose by 48.5% (from €935 to €1,388 per tonne), but this was not enough to offset the steep volume decline. The collapse in imports was steeper than that in exports, indicating that the EU's domestic market for this product has contracted substantially or that import substitution — whether through EU production or product switching — has been significant.

Source: General overview

The trade surplus narrowed but persisted

The EU's trade surplus in CN 721220 declined from €28.4 million in 2015 to €22.1 million in 2025 (−22.2%), reaching a low of €19.0 million and a high of €30.9 million during the period. The surplus was never at risk of turning into a deficit, but the convergence of declining export volumes with rising export prices underscores a structural shift: the EU is exporting fewer tonnes at higher margins, while its import needs have contracted even faster.

2. A reshaped geography of trade partners

South Korea and Türkiye faded as import sources while China held steady

Among EU import partners, the most dramatic shifts involved South Korea and Türkiye. South Korea was the largest single import source in 2015, supplying €7.3 million worth of CN 721220. By 2025, this had collapsed to just €378,000 — a drop of 94.8%. Türkiye similarly went from a peak of €3.3 million to €88,000 in 2025 (−30.9% from its 2015 level of €127,000). In contrast, China's exports to the EU grew from €1.2 million to €1.7 million (+42.0%), making it one of the few import origins that expanded over the decade. The United Kingdom, post-Brexit, also saw a significant decline from €3.0 million to €721,000 (−75.8%).

Source: Top import partners

EU exports to the US and China grew, while Norway and Türkiye collapsed

On the export side, the most notable growth was to the United States (+43.1%, from €3.6 million to €5.2 million) and China (+85.8%, from €1.6 million to €3.0 million). These two markets partially compensated for the loss of other destinations. Switzerland remained the EU's single largest export market, falling only moderately from €7.4 million to €6.0 million (−18.4%), and displaying the lowest export volatility (CV of 0.21). Meanwhile, exports to Norway collapsed from €3.5 million to €375,000 (−89.4%) and to Türkiye from €4.2 million to €755,000 (−82.2%).

Source: Top export partners

Import concentration declined while export concentration increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell from 4,135 to 3,084 (−25.4%), indicating that imports became more diversified across partners. The departure of dominant suppliers such as South Korea contributed to this deconcentration. On the export side, the HHI rose from 830 to 1,321 (+59.2%), meaning that EU exports became more concentrated around fewer destination markets — principally Switzerland and the United States, which together absorbed an increasing share of a shrinking export volume.

Price shocks were concentrated in eastern and southern export markets

The shock analysis reveals three notable price shocks in EU exports. Serbia experienced the most abnormal shock in 2022, with a 47.1% price shift and an abnormality score of 30.2. Ukraine saw an extreme 273.3% price increase in 2021, likely linked to the onset of conflict and supply disruptions in the region. Türkiye experienced a 160.6% price spike in 2022. These events reflect the broader turbulence in European steel markets during 2021–2022, driven by the post-COVID demand recovery, energy price surges, and geopolitical instability. The volatility analysis confirms that Türkiye (CV 1.85) and South Korea (CV 1.38) were the most volatile import partners, while China (CV 0.31) and Japan (CV 0.44) were the most stable.

3. EU production halved while specialisation persisted in core producers

EU production of CN 721220 fell by nearly half in volume

According to the production data, EU production of CN 721220 declined from 1,146,652 tonnes in 2015 to 576,000 tonnes in 2025 — a fall of 49.8%. A minimum of just 127,123 tonnes was recorded at some point during this period, almost certainly reflecting the COVID-19-related shutdowns of 2020. Despite the halving of volumes, production value remained broadly stable, rising marginally from €560 million to €582 million (+4.0%). This implies that the average production price roughly doubled, consistent with the rising raw material, energy, and compliance costs that have reshaped the European steel industry over the decade.

Source: Production volumes

Germany and Spain dominate EU export specialisation

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that Germany and Spain are by far the most specialised EU producers and exporters of CN 721220, with Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores of 0.43 and 0.45 respectively. Germany alone accounts for 53.2% of EU production and 21.2% of total exports. Spain holds 15.4% of production and 5.8% of exports. However, both countries saw their export values decline sharply over the decade (Germany −41.5%, Spain −89.9%), suggesting that even the most competitive EU producers are facing headwinds.

Source: Specialisation

Several EU member states have essentially exited the product

At the other end of the spectrum, Sweden, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovenia, and Greece have near-zero specialisation (RSCA scores below −0.97), with negligible production shares. This is reflected in the trade data: Hungary's imports fell by 83.4%, Slovakia's by 96.8%, and Spain's by 83.2% over the decade. These figures suggest that several member states have ceased to be meaningful participants in the CN 721220 value chain, either as producers, processors, or re-exporters.

Germany became a notable importer even as it remained the top exporter

An interesting structural shift is visible within the EU itself. Germany, the largest EU exporter, also saw its imports of CN 721220 surge from €36,000 in 2015 to €266,000 in 2025 (+641.1%). While these numbers remain small in absolute terms, they may reflect the integration of cross-border supply chains within the EU single market, where semi-finished products cross borders multiple times before reaching end users. The top reporters by value data provides further detail on this intra-EU dimension.

Conclusion

The EU market for electrolytic zinc coated steel strip (CN 721220) has undergone a profound transformation over 2015–2025. Traded volumes have fallen dramatically — exports by 69% and imports by 81% — while unit values have roughly doubled. The EU has maintained its position as a net exporter throughout, but the surplus has narrowed by 22%. Geographically, the trade landscape has been reshaped: traditional partners such as South Korea, Norway, and Türkiye have receded, while China and the United States have gained importance on the export side. EU production has halved in volume terms, with Germany and Spain remaining the dominant specialised producers. Looking forward, the combination of elevated energy costs, decarbonisation pressures, and an increasingly concentrated export base may pose structural challenges for EU competitiveness in this product category, even as rising unit values provide a temporary buffer for trade value metrics.