Market evolution: Electric forklift (CN 84271010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's trade in self-propelled electric forklift trucks with a lifting height of at least one metre (customs code 84271010) over the period 2015–2025. The data covers EU trade with non-EU countries and reveals a market shaped by three major forces: robust growth in EU production, a dramatic reorientation of import flows toward China, and the geopolitical disruption of the Russia–Ukraine war on export patterns. Despite a surge in imports, the EU has consolidated its position as a net exporter, with its trade surplus rising from €885 million to €1.15 billion over the decade.

1. A Sector in Rapid Expansion, Driven by Domestic Production

EU production more than doubled in volume and tripled in value

Between 2015 and 2025, EU production of electric forklifts grew from 136,834 units to 278,566 units, a rise of 103.6%. Production value increased even more sharply, from €2.03 billion to €6.57 billion (+223.2%). The fact that value growth far outpaced volume growth points to a shift toward higher-value vehicles—likely reflecting increased electrification, automation features, and premium pricing in a tightening global market for logistics equipment.

Exports grew strongly in both value and price

EU exports to non-EU partners rose from €1.02 billion to €1.85 billion (+81.9%) in value, while export volume grew from 159,305 tonnes to 218,029 tonnes (+36.9%). The average export price per unit increased from €14,410 to €20,792 (+44.3%), suggesting that EU manufacturers have been able to capture higher margins, potentially through technological differentiation.

The EU's trade surplus remained robust throughout the decade

The EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout the entire period, rising from €885 million in 2015 to €1.15 billion in 2025 (+29.6%). Net import reliance remained negative (indicating net exports) at –28.7% in 2025, deepening from –10.8% at the start of the period. The export propensity—the share of production shipped outside the EU—rose from 18.4% to 33.1%, confirming the sector's growing outward orientation.

2. China's Ascent Reshaped the EU's Import Landscape

Import growth was spectacular, fuelled overwhelmingly by China

EU imports surged from €134 million to €707 million (+428%) in value and from 16,263 units to 174,719 units (+974%) in volume. This tenfold increase in imported unit count is entirely dominated by China, whose exports to the EU grew from €22.9 million to €483.3 million (+2,011%). By 2025, China accounted for 63.2% of the value of EU imports in this product category.

Chinese imports came at declining prices, intensifying competitive pressure

A striking feature of China's rise is the divergence between volume and price. The average import price per unit from China fell sharply: import prices per tonne dropped 48.2% over the period (from a high of €4,511/t to €4,008/t), while the volume of Chinese units entering the EU grew far faster than the value paid. This pattern is consistent with Chinese manufacturers pursuing aggressive market-entry pricing, leveraging scale economies and lower production costs to gain share.

Import concentration nearly doubled, raising supply-chain risks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 2,600 to 5,079 (+95.4%), indicating that the import market has become significantly more concentrated. China alone now accounts for the dominant share of imports, making the EU's import channel highly dependent on a single supplier. The volatility data confirms this risk: China shows the highest coefficient of variation (0.84) among the EU's main import partners, reflecting the instability inherent in such rapid share gains.

3. Geopolitical Shocks and Shifting Export Destinations

Exports to Russia collapsed following sanctions

The most dramatic structural shift in EU export markets was the near-total disappearance of the Russian market. EU exports to Russia fell from €60.6 million in 2015 to just €0.5 million in 2025 (–99.2%), a direct consequence of EU sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia's share of EU exports collapsed, with the lost volume largely absorbed by other markets.

The UK, US, and Türkiye absorbed the bulk of export growth

The United Kingdom became the EU's single largest export destination, with exports rising from €246 million to €560 million (+127.4%). The United States followed at €280 million (+140.3%), and Türkiye at €133 million (+58.2%). Notably, Switzerland and Norway—non-EU European markets—also saw strong growth (+92.4% and +87.9% respectively), suggesting that geographic proximity and regulatory alignment continue to favour intra-European trade flows.

Export shocks were detected but remained manageable

The shock detection system identified three notable events: a price shock in EU exports to China in 2019 (–40.4% shift), a price shock in EU exports to the United Arab Emirates in 2023 (+25.9%), and a price shock in EU imports from China in 2022 (+48.2%). The 2022 China import shock is particularly significant given China's 63.2% value share, though the aggregate trade surplus suggests the EU's export base was resilient enough to absorb it.

Conclusion

The EU electric forklift market has undergone a transformation over 2015–2025. Domestic production has doubled in volume and tripled in value, cementing the EU's role as a major global supplier. Exports have grown steadily, with the UK, US, and Türkiye emerging as key destinations after the effective closure of the Russian market. At the same time, China's explosive growth as an import supplier—rising from a marginal player to a dominant force accounting for nearly two-thirds of import value—has reshaped the competitive landscape and introduced new supply-chain concentration risks. The EU's trade surplus remains healthy, but the data suggests a sector increasingly caught between its own export ambitions and growing import dependence on a single low-cost supplier.