Market evolution: Crude granite (CN 251611) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in crude or roughly trimmed granite (Customs code 251611) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers unprocessed granite blocks — raw material destined for cutting, polishing, and use in construction, monuments, and infrastructure.

Over the decade, EU trade in crude granite contracted sharply. Imports fell by 45% in value (from €267.7 million to €146.5 million) and exports declined by 38% (from €52.0 million to €32.3 million). However, these headline figures conceal a period of significant structural transformation. The EU's reliance on foreign granite has diminished, trade patterns have been reoriented geographically, and the market has experienced notable supply-side shocks. This report explores these dynamics in three sections.

For reference, the product definition and full data dashboard can be accessed at the Scope & Definitions page.

1. A Contracting Market Under Pressure

EU import volumes and values declined persistently

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's total imports of crude granite fell from 1,083,476 tonnes (€267.7 million) to 636,693 tonnes (€146.5 million) — a decline of 41% in volume and 45% in value (General Overview). Import prices softened more moderately, from €247 per tonne to €230 per tonne (−6.9%), indicating that the decline was driven more by falling demand than by price competition alone.

EU exports followed a similar trajectory, dropping from 462,599 tonnes (€52.0 million) to 345,937 tonnes (€32.3 million). Notably, export prices fell more steeply than import prices (−16.9%), suggesting that EU-origin granite faced intensifying price pressure on international markets.

The EU trade deficit narrowed substantially

The EU's trade balance in crude granite improved markedly. The deficit shrank from €215.7 million in 2015 to €114.2 million in 2025 — a 47% improvement. This reflects the faster contraction of imports relative to exports, and signals a structural rebalancing of the market.

Domestic production volumes surged even as values fell

According to PRODCOM data, EU production of crude granite increased by 53% in volume over the period (from 6.47 million tonnes to 9.90 million tonnes), while production value declined by 31% (from €350 million to €240 million). This divergence — rising volumes, falling values — points to a structural oversupply or a shift toward lower-value granite extraction within the EU, which helps explain the decline in import demand.

2. A Dramatic Geographic Reorientation of Trade Flows

Brazil and China saw the steepest losses in EU trade

The most striking feature of the period is the collapse of two formerly dominant trade relationships.

On the import side, Brazil — the EU's largest supplier in 2015 at €69.4 million — saw its shipments fall by 70.6% to just €20.4 million by 2025. India, South Africa, Mozambique, and Norway all posted significant declines as well. Zimbabwe was the sole major supplier to record growth, rising from €12.7 million to €24.3 million (+90.8%) (top import partners).

On the export side, the decline was dominated by the near-total loss of the Chinese market. EU exports to China fell from €30.6 million to €3.0 million — a 90.3% collapse. Switzerland, the second-largest destination, also contracted by 38.7% (top export partners).

EU exports pivoted toward North Africa and the Mediterranean

The vacuum left by China was partially filled by a surge of exports to countries along the southern and eastern Mediterranean. Algeria grew from €12,000 to €3.5 million (+28,636%), Tunisia from €0.5 million to €2.8 million (+436%), Albania from €1,160 to €1.4 million, and the United States from €0.3 million to €2.9 million (+931%). Syria also expanded, albeit from a smaller base.

This pivot likely reflects a combination of factors: China's own granite industry maturing and reducing import needs, post-conflict reconstruction demand in North Africa and the Middle East, and competitive EU pricing as export prices declined.

EU member states' roles shifted significantly

Within the EU, Italy remained the dominant importer throughout, though its share fell from €162.3 million to €77.9 million (−52%). Germany was the only major importer to grow (+15.2%), reaching €8.1 million by 2025 (top EU reporters).

Among exporters, Spain emerged as the EU's leading exporter of crude granite, growing from €2.5 million to €10.9 million (+342%). Italy also grew significantly (+65.5% to €7.7 million). Finland, once the largest EU exporter at €22.2 million, collapsed to €4.2 million (−81%).

3. Shifting Concentration, Persistent Volatility, and Reduced Vulnerability

Export concentration fell dramatically; import markets diversified slightly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by partner dropped from 4,049 to 1,008 — a 75% decline (concentration data). This reflects the shift away from the heavy concentration on China toward a broader set of smaller, more diversified markets. While this diversification reduces single-partner dependency risk, it also introduces exposure to more volatile, smaller-scale buyers.

Import-side concentration declined more modestly (HHI from 1,529 to 1,392, −9%), and volume-based concentration actually increased (HHI from 1,264 to 1,776), suggesting that while the value distribution diversified, a smaller number of suppliers may be shipping larger tonnage shares.

Supply-side shocks affected several bilateral relationships

The data detects significant price shocks in several trade corridors (supply shock events):

The UK import price shock in 2020 coincides with the COVID-19 pandemic and post-Brexit trade disruption. The Albanian and Tunisian export price shocks in 2017 may reflect the nascent and volatile nature of these newly developed trade relationships. Several partner relationships showed high volatility as measured by the coefficient of variation (volatility analysis), notably Türkiye (CV: 2.07), the United States (1.88), and Norway (1.20).

The EU's strategic vulnerability in crude granite has declined

Multiple indicators confirm a structural reduction in the EU's exposure to external granite supply (net import reliance):

• Net import reliance fell from 56.4% to 34.3% (−39.1%)
• Trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) fell from 64.5% to 45.3% (−29.9%)
• Export propensity (exports as a share of production) fell from 13.8% to 10.7% (−22.1%)

The most salient metric is export propensity (salience score: 61.4), indicating that the EU's shrinking participation in international granite markets is the defining characteristic of this period. The EU has become less dependent on granite imports not primarily because it exports more, but because domestic production has expanded and absorbed a larger share of internal demand.

Portugal, Finland, Sweden, Spain, and Belgium remain the most specialised EU producers/exporters of crude granite, with strong revealed comparative advantage indices (specialisation data). Conversely, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia, Denmark, and Romania show negligible specialisation in this product.

Conclusion

The EU market for crude granite (CN 251611) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most salient trends are:

1. Overall contraction: Both import and export values fell sharply, driven by declining volumes and softening prices. The EU trade deficit narrowed by nearly half.

2. Geographic realignment: The collapse of trade with China (exports −90%) and Brazil (imports −71%) was partially offset by the growth of new markets in North Africa, the Middle East, and the United States. Zimbabwe emerged as the only major import supplier to record sustained growth.

3. Reduced external vulnerability: Surging domestic production (volume +53%) has reduced the EU's net import reliance from 56% to 34%. The EU has become a more self-sufficient market for crude granite, though this has come with declining production values, suggesting competitive pressures within the bloc.

The period is characterised less by a single crisis than by a gradual structural adjustment — the reorientation of global granite trade flows, the maturation of domestic EU extraction capacity, and the diversification of export markets away from the formerly dominant Chinese market.