Market evolution: Costume jewellery (CN 711719) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The EU trade in imitation jewellery of base metal (CN 711719) has undergone a profound structural transformation over the decade 2015–2025. What was once a market characterised by heavy import dependency and a persistent trade deficit has evolved into one where the EU is approaching self-sufficiency and rapidly expanding its export footprint. This report identifies three overarching dynamics that define this evolution: the dramatic closing of the EU's trade deficit, a geographic reorientation of trade flows, and a domestic production shift from volume to value.

1. From Import Dependency to Trade Balance: The Closing Deficit

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the near-elimination of the EU's trade deficit in costume jewellery. The net import reliance collapsed from 44.7% in 2015 to just 1.6% in 2025, reflecting a 96.4% reduction. This was not achieved through import compression but rather through a surge in export competitiveness.

Exports nearly doubled while imports stagnated

Imports in value terms were essentially flat over the decade, fluctuating within a band of €670M to €1,040M. Exports, by contrast, grew from €457M to €857M — a period during which the maximum reached €892M. The trade balance thus narrowed from a deficit of €582M to €183M, coming close to parity by the end of the period.

Unit prices reveal a value-over-volume strategy

The EU exported less by weight in 2025 than in 2015, yet earned nearly twice as much. Export unit prices rose by 127.2%, from €182,129/tonne to €413,818/tonne, indicating a decisive shift toward higher-value-added costume jewellery. Import prices, meanwhile, rose only 5.5%, remaining at roughly one-seventh of export prices. This gap suggests that the EU's export portfolio is increasingly oriented toward premium and design-led segments, while mass-market products continue to be sourced from lower-cost Asian suppliers.

European production shifted dramatically from volume to value

EU production volumes collapsed by 86.4%, from 54,484 tonnes to just 7,426 tonnes. Yet production value grew by 25.1%, from €742M to €928M. This implies that the average value per kilogram of EU-produced costume jewellery increased roughly eightfold, consistent with the hypothesis of a structural move toward design-intensive, higher-margin products and away from commodity imitation jewellery.

2. Geographic Reorientation: Partners, Concentration and Member States

The decade saw significant shifts in both the origin of imports and the destination of exports, accompanied by a diverging trend in market concentration.

Import concentration increased; export concentration declined

Import concentration rose substantially, meaning the EU became more reliant on fewer supplier countries. Export concentration fell, indicating that EU exporters diversified their client base over the same period.

China consolidated its dominance as an import supplier

China's share of EU costume jewellery imports grew not only in absolute terms (+19.2%) but also as a proportion of the total, since overall imports were flat. The most dramatic decline came from Thailand, whose exports to the EU fell by 53.7% (from €163M to €75M), and from the United Kingdom, which saw a 60.4% drop — a decline likely linked to post-Brexit trade friction and statistical reclassification. The volatility of UK trade flows was exceptionally high (coefficient of variation of 1.19 for imports), consistent with the disruptive impact of the UK's departure from the EU customs union.

The United States became the EU's top export market

The most remarkable export story is China: EU exports of costume jewellery to China surged by 946%, from €8.5M to €89.0M. This reversal — the EU's largest import supplier also becoming a significant export destination — points to a bifurcated market in which China supplies mass-market products while the EU exports premium, brand-driven goods to Chinese consumers. The United States, already the second-largest market in 2015, grew by 79.3% to become the EU's top extra-EU export destination at €149M.

France and Italy emerged as the EU's export powerhouses

Among EU member states, France and Italy drove the export surge:

France's exports nearly tripled, reaching €448M, while Italy's more than tripled to €212M. Together, these two countries accounted for the lion's share of the EU's export growth. In contrast, Austria's trade collapsed on both sides: imports fell 92.9% and exports 93.9%. This dramatic decline may reflect a reclassification, a shift in intra-EU logistics routing, or the relocation of distribution centres. The specialisation data confirms that Italy (RSCA: 0.34) and France (RSCA: 0.31) are the EU's most specialised producers of costume jewellery, followed by Belgium, Portugal, and Luxembourg.

3. Volatility, Shocks and Resilience

Trade in costume jewellery is not without disruptions. The data reveals several significant supply shocks and notable differences in volatility across partners.

Thailand experienced the most impactful price shock

The top shock events detected in the data are:

The most consequential shock was the 149.1% price increase on imports from Thailand in 2022, affecting a trade flow that represented 17.3% of total import value at its peak. This coincided with Thailand's overall decline as an EU supplier (−53.7% over the decade), suggesting that the price shock may have been a symptom of broader supply-side disruption rather than a one-off anomaly. The shock's timing aligns with the post-pandemic period of global logistics bottlenecks and rising energy costs.

Volatility varies sharply across partners

The coefficient of variation (CV) of trade flows highlights which partnerships are most stable:

China, Indonesia, and the United States are the most stable import partners (CV ≤ 0.24), while the UK and Switzerland show the highest volatility on the import side. On the export side, Switzerland and Hong Kong are the most predictable markets, while Panama shows extreme volatility (CV of 3.10), likely reflecting re-export or transit trade patterns. The instability of UK trade flows on both sides is a notable feature of the post-2020 landscape.

Import concentration rising may pose long-term vulnerability

The rising import concentration (HHI from 4,396 to 6,053) combined with growing reliance on China (whose import share increased while total imports stagnated) suggests a narrowing of the EU's supplier base. This is occurring at the same time as the EU's export propensity surged from 69.3% to 151.2% — indicating that the EU's costume jewellery industry is increasingly oriented toward global markets. The combination of higher export openness and greater import concentration creates a dual exposure: on the supply side to Chinese sourcing risks, and on the demand side to fluctuations in key markets such as the United States and Switzerland.

Conclusion

The EU's costume jewellery market has undergone a remarkable decade of transformation. The trade deficit narrowed by 68.5%, driven not by import reduction but by a near-doubling of export value. This export boom was powered primarily by France and Italy, whose industries pivoted toward high-value, design-intensive products — a strategy confirmed by the 127% rise in export unit prices and the eightfold increase in production value-per-kilogram despite an 86% collapse in production volumes. Geographically, the market reoriented significantly: the United States replaced the United Kingdom as the top export destination, China evolved from pure supplier to dual supplier-and-buyer, and Thailand's role as a major import source declined sharply. However, rising import concentration and continued heavy reliance on China represent structural vulnerabilities that merit monitoring. The data paints a picture of an industry that is becoming more specialised, more export-oriented, and more value-driven — but also more exposed to the risks inherent in concentrated supply chains and volatile global markets.