Market evolution: Coniferous fuel wood (CN 440111) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of coniferous fuel wood (Customs code 440111) for the European Union with non-EU countries from 2015 to 2025. The analysis is based on annual trade data, which reveals a significant transformation in the EU's position. Over the period, the bloc shifted from being a net importer with a negative trade balance to achieving a positive balance by 2025, driven by a collapse in import volumes and a surge in export values. The report explores this structural shift, the changing geography of trade partners, and the significant price shocks that characterized the period.

The EU's Shift from Net Importer to Net Exporter

The most pronounced trend in EU trade for coniferous fuel wood is a dramatic reversal in its trade balance, underpinned by divergent trends in import and export volumes and values.

A collapse in import volumes coupled with rising prices

EU imports of coniferous fuel wood underwent a severe contraction between 2017 and 2025. Quantity imported fell from 336,642 tonnes to 119,673 tonnes, a decline of 64.5%. Despite this volume drop, the total value of imports decreased by only 14.8% (from €19.7 million to €16.8 million), due to a sharp increase in the import price. The unit price surged from €58.5 per tonne in 2017 to €140.1 per tonne in 2025, an increase of 139.6%.

(Source: General Overview)

Steady growth in export volumes and a strong increase in value

In contrast, EU exports expanded robustly. The quantity exported grew by 87.4%, rising from 46,910 tonnes to 87,892 tonnes. This volume increase, combined with a rising export price, led to an even more substantial 143.4% rise in export value, which climbed from €8.6 million to €20.8 million. The export unit price increased by 29.8% over the period, from €182.5 to €236.9 per tonne.

(Source: General Overview)

The transformation of the EU trade balance

The combination of falling import values and surging export values fundamentally altered the EU's trade position. In 2017, the EU recorded a trade deficit of €11.1 million in coniferous fuel wood. By 2025, this had turned into a surplus of €4.1 million, a swing of over 136%. This indicates the EU became a net exporter of this product by value.

A Changing Geography of Trade Partners

The EU's trade partnerships for coniferous fuel wood evolved significantly, with trade becoming more concentrated and specific partners gaining or losing prominence in both import and export flows.

Ukraine's dominance in imports and the rise of Norway

Ukraine was consistently the EU's top supplier of coniferous fuel wood, accounting for a dominant share of import value (its value share reached 74% during a 2019 shock). While its import value grew marginally (+2.1%), other traditional suppliers like the United Kingdom and Albania saw their shares collapse (-65.1% and -98.5% respectively). Notably, imports from Norway surged by 333.8%, making it a major supplier by 2025. The EU also significantly reduced imports from Russia (-71.8%).

(Source: Top Partners)

The United Kingdom and Switzerland became the primary export destinations

The destination of EU exports shifted decisively towards the United Kingdom and Switzerland. The UK remained the top export market, with its import value from the EU growing by 182.6% to €9.4 million. The most dramatic change was with Switzerland, where export value surged by 548.5% to €9.3 million, making it nearly as important as the UK by 2025. Conversely, exports to some partners, like Albania and Peru, diminished to negligible levels.

(Source: Top Partners)

EU member states exhibit divergent roles and specialization

Within the EU, national roles in the trade of coniferous fuel wood are highly specialized. Latvia, Estonia, and Croatia show the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA), indicating they are major exporters relative to their other exports. In contrast, larger economies like Italy, Austria, and Ireland are highly un-specialized, acting primarily as importers or having negligible production.

This is reflected in the import and export data for EU members. Romania was the largest EU importer by value in 2025, while Latvia was by far the largest exporter, followed by France and Ireland.

(Source: Top Reporters and Specialisation)

Price Volatility and Identified Supply Shocks

The period was characterized by significant price volatility in key trade relationships, with several events identifiable as major market shocks, particularly in 2019 and 2022.

Concentrated trade relationships showed high volatility

Trade in coniferous fuel wood became more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for both import and export values increased between 2017 and 2025, by 35.8% and 78.0% respectively. Partners with high concentration, like Ukraine for imports and Switzerland for exports, also exhibited high price volatility (coefficient of variation).

(Source: Concentration)

The 2019 import price shock from Ukraine

A major price shock occurred in 2019 in EU imports from Ukraine. The model detected an abnormality score of 21.0, with the unit price shifting by +208.1% that year. This single event was highly influential, as Ukraine's imports represented 74% of the total import value in the period centered on 2019. This likely reflects a supply or cost crisis in Ukraine that year.

The 2022 export price shocks to Switzerland and North Macedonia

In 2022, significant price shocks were detected in EU exports to two partners. For Switzerland, the export price showed an abnormality of 9.0 and shifted upwards by 72.1%. For North Macedonia, the shift was +61.1% with an abnormality of 13.6. These synchronized spikes in 2022 point to a broad-based increase in export prices, potentially linked to the energy crisis in Europe that year, which increased domestic demand and the price of all energy sources, including fuel wood.

(Source: Supply Shocks)

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's market for coniferous fuel wood underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc transitioned from a net importer to a net exporter by value, driven by a collapse in import volumes and a strong rise in export values. This structural shift was facilitated by changing trade partnerships: imports became heavily reliant on Ukraine and Norway, while exports were increasingly directed to the United Kingdom and Switzerland.

The period was marked by significant price volatility and identifiable shocks. A sharp price spike in imports from Ukraine in 2019 and parallel export price surges in 2022 highlight the market's sensitivity to supply-side disruptions and broader energy market dynamics. Overall, the EU's trade in this wood fuel product became more concentrated, more export-oriented, and significantly more expensive over the decade.