Market evolution: Commercial catalogues (CN 49111010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's trade in commercial catalogues (customs code 49111010) from 2015 to 2025. The period has been characterized by a profound and sustained contraction in both export and import volumes and values. This trend reflects significant structural shifts in the industry, driven by digitalization and geopolitical events. The analysis below breaks down these dynamics, examining the overall market decline, the changing geography of trade, and the evolving competitive landscape within the EU.

1. A Decade of Structural Contraction

The commercial catalogue market within the EU has experienced a severe and consistent decline over the examined decade. The contraction is evident across all key metrics: total value, trade volume, and trade balance, signaling a fundamental shift away from printed trade advertising material.

1.1 Total trade value has plummeted

EU exports of commercial catalogues have fallen dramatically from €457.7 million in 2015 to €143.6 million in 2025, a decline of 68.6% (General Overview). Imports, while smaller, also contracted significantly by 38.3%, from €39.9 million to €24.6 million. This widespread reduction underscores a sector-wide downturn, not merely a shift in trade patterns.

1.2 Physical volume has decreased even faster than value

The quantity of catalogues exported by weight (in tonnes) has dropped even more sharply than their value, falling by 77.2% from 235,525 tonnes to 53,687 tonnes. Import volume fell by 51.8%. This indicates that fewer physical catalogues are being produced and circulated.

1.3 Unit prices have risen, indicating a shift to higher-value products

Despite the collapse in volume, the average price per tonne of exported catalogues increased by 37.7% to €2,675, and import prices rose by 27.9% to €6,448. This inverse relationship suggests the market is not disappearing entirely but is shifting towards more specialized, higher-quality, or lower-volume production runs, possibly for niche or luxury markets.

2. A Radically Reconfigured Geographic Landscape

The decline in overall trade has not been uniform. It has been driven by the near-total collapse of exports to some of the EU's former largest partners, while other relationships have proven more resilient. This has reshaped the geographic focus of the industry.

2.1 Traditional major markets have been abandoned

Exports to former top destinations have collapsed spectacularly:

• Norway saw the steepest decline at -94.7%, from €63.9 million to €3.4 million.
• Russia (-97.5%) and the United Kingdom (-69.0%) similarly saw precipitous drops.
• Within the EU, Denmark's exports fell by 96.2%.

These declines are so severe they suggest deliberate exits from these markets, likely driven by economic sanctions (Russia), new trade barriers (UK post-Brexit), and broader digitalization trends making physical catalogues less viable for these clients.

2.2 China has emerged as a crucial and growing import partner

In stark contrast to the general trend, imports from China increased by 44.6% in value, rising from €6.2 million to €9.0 million. China is now the EU's second-largest source of commercial catalogues, overtaking several European neighbours. This points to a cost-driven or production-capacity advantage for Chinese suppliers in this segment.

2.3 The intra-EU export map has become highly concentrated

Among EU member states, the decline in exports has been widespread, but some have fared better than others. Germany, Italy, and Denmark experienced massive declines (between -69% and -96%). However, Poland and the Netherlands saw relatively smaller reductions (-58.3% and -55.8% respectively). This consolidation, combined with the rising Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports (from 1,554 to 2,535), indicates that EU export activity is becoming concentrated in fewer member states.

3. Rising Specialization and Market Concentration

Parallel to the overall market contraction, the internal structure of the EU's catalogue trade has become more concentrated and specialized. Production and exporting are increasingly dominated by a smaller group of highly specialized EU countries.

3.3 Export concentration has increased significantly

The HHI for EU export value rose by 63.1% between 2015 and 2025, moving from a moderately concentrated market to one that is highly concentrated. This metric confirms the observation from top partners: the market is consolidating, with a smaller number of entities (both companies and countries) controlling a larger share of exports.

3.2 A handful of EU members are now highly specialized producers

Based on 2025 data, Poland has the highest relative comparative advantage (RSCA of 0.66) in exporting commercial catalogues, followed by Croatia (0.52) and Czechia (0.46). Poland alone accounts for 32% of all EU catalogue production (by value), making it the clear leader in this now-niche industry.

3.3 Traditional printing hubs have lost their comparative advantage

Conversely, large economies like Ireland (RSCA of -1.00), Finland (-0.93), and Greece (-0.88) are now strongly disadvantaged in this sector. Their negative RSCA scores indicate they have completely shifted away from catalogue production, aligning with a broader structural change in their industrial bases towards digital or other services.

Conclusion

The EU's commercial catalogue trade between 2015 and 2025 tells a story of an industry in structural decline, precipitated by digitalization. The market has contracted by over two-thirds in value, with physical volumes falling even faster. This shake-out has fundamentally reconfigured the geography of trade: traditional partners have disappeared, while China's role has grown, and EU production has consolidated in a few highly specialized member states, led by Poland. The simultaneous rise in unit prices and market concentration suggests a surviving niche for high-value, specialized printed catalogues. Overall, the data portrays the transformation from a widespread, bulk commodity trade into a smaller, more specialized, and geographically concentrated segment of the printing industry.