Market evolution: Advertising materials (CN 491110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in products classified under customs code 491110, which covers trade advertising material and commercial catalogues. The analysis period spans from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market undergoing a profound structural contraction, characterised by a steep and persistent decline in physical trade volumes, significant shifts in partner relationships, and underlying price volatility. These dynamics point to the transformative impact of digitalisation on the traditional printed advertising and catalogue sector.

A Secular Decline Accelerated by Digitalization

The most striking feature of the EU trade in CN 491110 over the decade is a dramatic and continuous contraction. Both exports and imports have fallen substantially, indicating a systemic decline in global demand for physical trade advertising materials.

Export contraction outpaces import decline

EU exports of advertising materials have collapsed, losing more than half of their value and nearly three-quarters of their physical volume. This suggests that European producers of these materials have faced shrinking international markets.

The decline in imports, while less severe in value terms, is equally steep in volume. This indicates that the EU's internal demand for such physical materials has also shrunk considerably. The General Overview confirms a parallel erosion of the EU's trade surplus in this sector.

A significant price increase masks the volume collapse

Despite the collapse in traded volume, average unit prices have risen sharply—by 59% for exports and 69% for imports. This indicates a market bifurcation: the remaining trade likely consists of higher-value, niche, or specialty items, while mass-market, lower-value catalogue and flyer printing has migrated online or ceased entirely.

The persistent price gap between imports and exports suggests the EU imports higher-specification materials while exporting more standardised products, though both are declining.

Shifts in key partner relationships reflect the sector's decline

The trade decline is not uniform across partners. Established markets have contracted violently, while some newer relationships have emerged, albeit from a lower base. The top partners by value show significant restructuring.

• Traditional markets in crisis: Exports to Switzerland (the EU's largest partner) and the United Kingdom fell by 47.7% and 52.7% in value, respectively. Most dramatically, exports to Russia plummeted by 90.5%, reflecting geopolitical and sanctions impacts.
• Import source diversification: While imports from Switzerland fell by 70.6%, those from China and Turkey grew significantly (by 71% and 321%, respectively), suggesting a shift towards lower-cost sourcing for the remaining physical material needs.

Divergent Specialisation and Rising Export Concentration

Against the backdrop of overall decline, the market structure reveals divergent competitive advantages within the EU and a trend towards greater concentration on the export side.

Central and Eastern European members show export specialisation

In 2025, export specialisation in CN 491110 was concentrated in Central and Eastern EU members. Slovenia, Poland, and Croatia had the highest Relative Comparative Advantage (RCA) scores.

This specialisation likely reflects retained capacity in print manufacturing or a focus on regional export markets where physical catalogues still have a role.

Large Western economies show little specialisation

Conversely, large economies like Ireland, Finland, and Greece exhibit very low specialisation (RCA < 0.1), indicating they are net importers or have largely exited the production of these goods for export. This aligns with advanced economies where digital advertising penetration is highest.

Export market concentration has increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which measures market concentration, shows a telling divergence. Export concentration increased by 8.9%, meaning EU exporters have become more reliant on a narrower set of destination markets. In contrast, import concentration decreased slightly, indicating a diversification of import sources. This suggests EU exporters are focusing on their core remaining markets as overall demand contracts.

High Volatility and Product-Specific Dynamics

The trade data is characterised by high volatility and distinct performance trends between the two main product sub-categories within CN 491110.

Trade flows exhibit high and uneven volatility

The coefficient of variation (CV) for trade values with key partners is very high, indicating unstable trade flows. This volatility is especially pronounced for imports from smaller partners like Bosnia and Herzegovina (CV: 0.80) and Ukraine (CV: 1.37), and for exports to the UK (CV: 0.80) and Russia (CV: 0.78). This underscores the non-essential and discretionary nature of this trade, which is highly sensitive to business cycles and strategic shifts.

Two significant price shocks were detected

The analysis of volatility identified two major price shock events:

1. Swiss Export Price Shock (2022): A 27.7% price increase in exports to Switzerland, which accounts for 59.4% of export value. This may reflect a post-pandemic spike in demand or a shift in the product mix towards higher-value items.
2. US Import Price Shock (2020): A 100.2% price increase in imports from the United States, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted supply chains and may have increased costs for specialised materials.

The product mix is shifting towards higher-value advertising materials

A breakdown by the two sub-categories (49111010: Commercial catalogues and 49111090: Trade advertising material) reveals divergent trends.

Commercial catalogues (49111010) have experienced a far steeper decline in both value (-68.6%) and quantity (-77.2%) than general trade advertising materials (49111090). This is the clearest evidence of digital substitution; printed product catalogues are readily replaceable by online versions, whereas some forms of point-of-sale or trade show advertising materials may retain more physical relevance.

Conclusion

The EU's external trade in trade advertising materials and commercial catalogues (CN 491110) has undergone a severe and sustained contraction from 2015 to 2025. The core dynamic is a digitalization-driven secular decline in demand for physical printed matter, evidenced by a 52% drop in export value and a 70% fall in export volume. This decline has been most acute for traditional catalogues.

The market's response has been twofold: a sharp increase in average prices, indicating a shift towards niche, higher-value products, and a restructuring of trade flows. Established partnerships with high-income European neighbours have weakened, while sourcing has partially shifted to China and Turkey. Within the EU, export specialisation has concentrated in several Central and Eastern European members, while export market concentration has increased.

High volatility and distinct shock events highlight the sector's sensitivity to broader economic and geopolitical trends. The overall trajectory is one of structural change, where the physical product is increasingly a specialty item rather than a mass-market commodity, leading to a smaller, more volatile, and more concentrated trading ecosystem.