Market evolution: Coconut oil (CN 151311) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU trade in crude coconut oil (Customs code 151311) from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market characterized by significant price volatility, a growing structural deficit, and increasing dependence on a concentrated group of suppliers. Over the decade, the EU's import bill surged even as physical import volumes stabilized, highlighting the impact of global commodity price cycles on the bloc's trade balance. The analysis is based on the provided data, focusing on major trends in value, volume, partners, and structural market indicators. For a complete overview, please refer to the General Overview dashboard.

The Decoupling of Value and Volume: A Price-Driven Market

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic divergence between the monetary value and physical volume of EU imports. While import quantities remained relatively stable, their total value nearly doubled, indicating that price movements, not increased consumption, were the primary driver of the growing trade deficit.

Import value surged while volumes stagnated

Between 2015 and 2025, the total value of EU imports of crude coconut oil increased by 80.6%, from €630.8 million to €1.139 billion. In stark contrast, the quantity imported fell by 6.2%, from 600,202 tonnes to 562,945 tonnes. This divergence is explained by the near-doubling of the average import price, which rose by 92.5% from €1,051 per tonne to €2,023 per tonne. The peak import value of nearly €1.17 billion was reached in 2022, a year marked by high global commodity prices.

The trade deficit widened significantly

The EU's trade balance for this product deteriorated substantially over the period. The deficit in value terms grew from -€625 million in 2015 to -€1.130 billion in 2025, an increase of 80.8%. This widening deficit is a direct consequence of the rising import costs, which were not offset by changes in export activity. The General Overview on trade illustrates this trend clearly.

Concentrated Supply and Growing Import Dependence

The EU's supply of crude coconut oil is geographically concentrated and has become more so over the decade. This concentration, particularly in the Philippines, exposes the bloc to supply-side risks, a factor underscored by recent price shocks.

The Philippines solidified its dominant position

The Philippines has consistently been the EU's largest supplier, but its share of EU imports has expanded significantly. In 2015, it supplied €419.4 million worth of crude coconut oil (66.5% of total imports). By 2025, this had grown to €872.7 million (76.6% of total imports), a value increase of 108.1%. Indonesia, the second-largest supplier, saw its share fluctuate, ending at €204.0 million in 2025. The concentration of import sources, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for value, increased by 20.2% from 5,158 to 6,202 between 2015 and 2025, confirming a more consolidated supplier base. The top partner countries data details these shifts.

Price volatility and a major supply shock

Trade with key partners has been highly volatile. The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values from the Philippines (0.13) is relatively low, reflecting its consistent dominance, but volatility is extremely high for smaller suppliers like Malaysia (CV=1.06) and Singapore (CV=0.98). More significantly, the data identifies a major price shock originating from the Philippines in 2021. This event had an abnormality score of 20.6, involved a 64.3% price shift, and accounted for 80.7% of the value of EU imports that year, highlighting the market's sensitivity to disruptions in its primary source. The volatility and shocks analysis provides further details on these events.

Internal EU Dynamics: Specialization and Production Growth

Within the EU, the landscape for crude coconut oil is marked by specialized trading hubs, growing domestic production, and a stable, high level of import reliance.

The Netherlands is the central hub, but specialization varies

The Netherlands is by far the largest importer within the EU, accounting for €606 million (53.2%) of all imports in 2025. Its Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index is positive (0.639), indicating a strong specialization in this product. Germany is the second-largest importer (€231 million in 2025) but shows negative specialization (RSCA of -0.3554). Other member states like Slovenia (RSCA=0.8506) and Lithuania (RSCA=0.4096) also display positive specialization, though on a much smaller scale. The specialisation metrics highlight this disparity.

EU production of crude coconut oil increased substantially

Contrary to the flat import volumes, EU production (defined by PRODCOM code 10.41.29.10) grew significantly. Production quantity increased by 60.0%, from 1.50 billion kg in 2015 to 2.40 billion kg in 2025, and its value rose by 40.2% from €912 million to €1.278 billion. This growth in domestic output did not, however, reduce the bloc's net import reliance, which remained virtually stable, moving from 49.7% to 50.1%. This suggests that rising production may be serving different market segments or not keeping pace with total consumption needs. The production volumes data illustrates this trend.

Conclusion

The EU market for crude coconut oil over 2015–2025 was defined by price volatility driving up costs, not by increasing physical demand. The bloc's trade deficit widened dramatically as a result. Supply-side concentration intensified, with the Philippines cementing its position as the dominant supplier, creating a point of vulnerability highlighted by the 2021 price shock. Internally, the Netherlands remains the primary gateway, while EU production grew robustly but failed to materially alter the bloc's net import dependence of approximately 50%. The market's trajectory underscores the EU's exposure to global price fluctuations and concentrated supply chains for this key vegetable oil.