Market evolution: Chemical preparations (CN 38249992) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the external trade performance of the European Union in CN 38249992 — Chemical products or preparations, predominantly composed of organic compounds, in liquid form at 20°C, n.e.s. This residual customs code sits within heading 3824 ("Prepared binders for foundry moulds or cores; chemical products and preparations for the chemical or allied industries") and captures a heterogeneous range of organic-based liquid chemical preparations not classified under more specific subheadings. It maps to Prodcom code 20.59.59.95 ("Other chemical products, n.e.c.").

The analysis covers the nine complete annual periods from 2017 to 2025, the window for which consistent data is available. Over this span, the EU maintained a structural trade surplus in this product, but the surplus eroded significantly as import volumes more than doubled while export volumes contracted. Three principal dynamics emerge from the data:

1. Diverging trade flows — export value grew on the strength of rising unit values, while import volumes surged at broadly stable prices, narrowing the trade surplus.
2. A dramatic reorientation of trade partners — sanctions eliminated Russia as an export market, India and Vietnam emerged as major new import suppliers, and the United States consolidated its role on both sides.
3. Production contraction, unit-value inflation, and episodic price shocks — EU domestic output shrank by roughly a fifth, export prices climbed 54%, and several acute price shocks were detected in 2022–2023.

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1. A Shrinking Surplus: Import Growth Outpaces Export Expansion

The EU remains a net exporter, but its competitive edge is narrowing

Throughout 2017–2025, the EU consistently exported more CN 38249992 products than it imported, recording a positive trade balance in every year. However, the surplus declined from €1.03 billion in 2017 to €888 million in 2025 — a contraction of 14.0%. At its lowest point, the surplus fell to just €604 million. The EU's net import reliance remained negative throughout — confirming net-exporter status — and deepened from −7.7% to −18.5%, primarily because domestic production contracted even faster than the trade surplus itself.

Source: General Overview

Export value grew entirely on the back of higher prices

EU export value rose by 31.1%, reaching €2.06 billion in 2025. This growth was driven entirely by a 54.0% increase in unit values (from €2,790/t to €4,297/t). Physical export volumes actually fell by 14.9%, declining from 563,500 to 479,700 tonnes. The export unit value peaked at €4,360/t before easing slightly. This pattern suggests that EU exporters have been able to command significantly higher prices — likely reflecting increased production costs, a shift toward higher-value product mixes, or tightening global supply — but have not been able to expand their physical footprint in third-country markets.

Import volumes surged, more than doubling in under a decade

The most striking feature of the period is the 110.6% increase in EU import volumes, which climbed from 147,900 tonnes in 2017 to 311,400 tonnes in 2025. Import values rose even faster (+117.7%, to €1.17 billion), though the import unit value increased only modestly (+3.4%). The EU therefore sourced vastly larger quantities at broadly stable prices, suggesting either new low-cost production capacity abroad or a structural increase in domestic demand that EU producers alone could not satisfy. Import values peaked at €1.42 billion before easing in the final year, hinting at some demand correction or supplier adjustment.

Germany dominates the intra-EU import and export geography

At the member-state level, Germany accounted for the largest share of extra-EU imports, growing from €186 million to €464 million (+149.5%). The Netherlands (€208 million) and Belgium (€191 million) followed. Among the top seven importers, Spain (+241%) and Poland (+278%) saw the fastest growth rates, suggesting expanding downstream demand in Southern and Eastern Europe. On the export side, Germany remained the dominant exporter at €833 million (+21.0%), followed by the Netherlands (€325 million) and Belgium (€277 million). France saw the fastest export growth among major exporters (+97.8%).

Source: Top reporters

2. Geopolitical Rupture and the Reorientation of Trade Partners

Russia's collapse as an export destination is the single largest structural shift

The most dramatic change in EU export destinations was the near-total loss of the Russian Federation as a market. EU exports to Russia fell from €109 million in 2017 to just €349 thousand in 2025 — a decline of 99.7%. Russia had been the EU's fifth-largest export market for this product; its abrupt disappearance — almost certainly linked to EU sanctions imposed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine — left a gap that was partially absorbed by other partners, most notably the United States, Türkiye, and Switzerland.

Source: Top partners (exports)

India and Vietnam emerged as major new import suppliers

On the import side, two Asian countries stand out for their extraordinary growth trajectories. India surged from just €6.2 million in 2017 to €145.9 million in 2025 — an increase of 2,270% — making it the EU's fourth-largest import source for this product. Vietnam grew from a negligible €38,000 to €35.5 million, a transformation from near-zero to material scale within a few years. These shifts suggest that Indian and Vietnamese chemical manufacturers have rapidly built production capacity and competitiveness in liquid organic preparations, capturing EU market share from more established suppliers.

Conversely, Malaysia saw its exports to the EU collapse from €30.4 million to €4.9 million (−84.0%). China more than doubled its exports to the EU (+130.9%, reaching €181.5 million), but had previously peaked at €532.6 million, implying a significant retreat from a high-water mark and considerable year-to-year volatility.

Source: Top partners (imports)

Import concentration has declined, reflecting supply diversification

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value fell from 2,341 to 1,887 (−19.4%), moving from a moderately concentrated structure toward a more dispersed one. The decline was even steeper in volume terms (−21.6%). This diversification is a positive signal for supply resilience: the EU now draws on a broader base of suppliers rather than relying heavily on a handful of dominant origins.

By contrast, export concentration edged upward slightly (from 797 to 881 by value, +10.5%), though it remains well below levels associated with concentration risk. The modest increase reflects the growing weight of the United States — which alone now accounts for over 20% of EU extra-EU exports — while the disappearance of Russia compressed the tail of the distribution.

Source: Concentration (HHI)

3. Unit-Value Inflation, Production Contraction, and Episodic Price Shocks

EU domestic production has contracted sharply

EU production of CN 38249992 declined significantly over the period. Output fell from 7.07 billion kg to 5.69 billion kg (−19.5%) in quantity, and from €11.4 billion to €10.0 billion (−12.3%) in value. The fact that the quantity decline was steeper than the value decline indicates that average domestic production prices rose, consistent with the higher unit values observed in trade data.

This contraction likely reflects a combination of tightening EU environmental and chemical regulations, elevated energy costs (particularly acute after 2022), and the ongoing rationalisation of European chemical manufacturing. It also helps explain why import volumes surged: as domestic output fell, EU downstream industries increasingly turned to foreign suppliers to meet their needs.

Source: Production volumes

Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands are the most specialised EU producers

In 2025, Belgium was the most specialised EU producer of this product, with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.373 and an RCA of 2.19. Germany (RSCA 0.259, RCA 1.70) and the Netherlands (RSCA 0.133, RCA 1.31) followed. Together, these three countries accounted for approximately 74% of EU production value and around 70% of EU extra-EU export value. France (RCA 1.13) also showed mild specialisation, while Italy (RCA 0.69) and most smaller member states had an RCA below 1, indicating that they are not specialised producers of this product.

Source: Specialisation

Export price shocks clustered in 2022–2023, coinciding with the energy crisis

The volatility analysis reveals several notable price shocks in EU export flows during the 2022–2023 period:

The Russia shock in 2023 — a 356% price increase — is the most striking. With export volumes having collapsed under sanctions, any residual flows likely consisted of niche, high-value specialty products or were routed through complex supply chains, resulting in extreme unit-value distortion. The Egypt and India shocks in 2022 align with the broader commodity and energy-price inflation of that year, when global energy costs surged in the wake of the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

Import volatility is highest for emerging Asian suppliers

On the import side, the coefficient of variation reveals a clear divide between stable, long-standing suppliers and volatile new entrants:

Vietnam's extreme volatility (CV of 2.69) is consistent with its emergence from near-zero trade to significant volumes within a short period — a characteristic of a nascent supplier rapidly scaling up. India (0.55) and China (0.54) also show elevated volatility, while traditional partners such as Japan and the United Kingdom provide more predictable supply flows.

Source: Volatility

Conclusion

Between 2017 and 2025, the EU's trade in CN 38249992 chemical preparations underwent significant structural transformation. The Union retained its position as a net exporter, but the trade surplus narrowed from €1.03 billion to €888 million as import volumes more than doubled while export volumes declined by 15%. Rising unit values — especially on the export side (+54%) — sustained export revenue growth, but masked an underlying contraction in physical trade volumes and domestic production (−19.5% in quantity).

The partner landscape was fundamentally reshaped. EU sanctions effectively eliminated Russia as an export destination (−99.7%), while India and Vietnam emerged from near-irrelevance to become major import suppliers. On the export side, the United States consolidated its position as the EU's largest market (€423 million), absorbing some of the demand previously served by Russia. Import concentration declined (HHI −19.4%), signalling healthier diversification of supply sources.

Looking ahead, the key risks centre on the sustainability of EU production capacity in the face of continued cost and regulatory pressures, and on the reliability of the new Asian supply chains that have emerged. The episodic price shocks of 2022–2023 — coinciding with the global energy crisis — serve as a reminder that this product segment, while increasingly diversified, remains exposed to geopolitical and macroeconomic disruptions.