Market evolution: Cassava flour (CN 110620) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in cassava flour and related root/tuber flours under Combined Nomenclature code 110620 over the 2015–2025 period. The product category encompasses flour, meal and powder derived from sago, manioc (cassava), arrowroot, sweet potatoes, and similar starchy roots and tubers. Over the decade, the EU cassava flour market underwent a structural transformation: the bloc evolved from a moderate net importer reliant on a concentrated supplier base into a near self-sufficient producer whose import needs fell to negligible levels, while simultaneously building a substantial export capacity. The analysis draws on EU-level trade data, partner-country breakdowns, concentration indices, production volumes, and volatility measures to identify and explain these dynamics.

1. The EU's dramatic shift toward self-sufficiency

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the EU's near-complete elimination of its net import reliance, driven by an explosion in domestic production.

1.1 Domestic production expanded nearly 40-fold

EU production volumes grew from 26.4 million kg in 2015 to 1.05 billion kg in 2025 — an increase of approximately 3,887%. Production value followed a similar, though less extreme, trajectory, rising from €54.9 million to €433.8 million (+690%). The disproportionate growth in volume relative to value indicates that the EU massively scaled up output of lower-cost products, likely denatured cassava flour used in animal feed and industrial applications. This production surge fundamentally altered the EU's position in global cassava trade.

1.2 Import reliance collapsed from 18% to near zero

The net import reliance ratio — which measures the share of apparent consumption satisfied by imports — fell from 17.8% in 2015 to just 0.5% in 2025, a decline of 97%. In some intermediate years, the ratio even turned slightly negative (reaching –5.5%), meaning the EU briefly became a net exporter in volume-equivalent terms. This was possible because while imports remained relatively stable in quantity (around 10,000 tonnes by 2025), exports surged from a negligible 195 tonnes to 4,912 tonnes.

1.3 Imports grew in value but stagnated in volume

Despite the broader self-sufficiency trend, import values continued to rise — from €8.2 million in 2015 to €18.3 million in 2025 (+122%). Import volumes, however, tell a different story:

The 2020 peak in import volume (19,676 tonnes) was likely pandemic-related stockpiling, after which volumes retreated. The rise in import value despite flat-to-declining volumes from that peak reflects higher unit prices, which climbed from a trough of €869/t (2020) to €1,824/t (2025). This suggests the EU increasingly sources premium or food-grade cassava flour imports while displacing bulk/commodity volumes with domestic production.

2. A diversifying supplier landscape with growing African and Latin American roles

The EU's import geography shifted significantly over the decade. While Peru remained a major supplier, several African and other Latin American countries surged in importance, and the overall supplier base became markedly less concentrated.

2.1 Import concentration fell by more than half

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value dropped from 2,988 in 2015 to 1,285 in 2025 — a 57% decline. An HHI above 2,500 typically signals a highly concentrated market; the 2025 figure sits in the moderately concentrated range, reflecting genuine diversification. This structural change reduced the EU's vulnerability to supply disruptions from any single origin.

2.2 African suppliers gained significant market share

Several West African and Central African countries dramatically expanded their cassava flour exports to the EU:

These countries are major cassava-producing nations, and their growing EU trade likely reflects both investment in processing capacity and preferential trade access under EU–Africa agreements. Brazil similarly expanded its position, from €601K to €1.9M (+221%).

2.3 The UK's role shifted post-Brexit

The United Kingdom was the EU's largest single import source in 2015 (€1.0M), likely reflecting re-exports from Commonwealth-origin cassava through UK trading hubs. By 2025, UK-origin imports had fallen to €856K (–15%), while the UK simultaneously became the EU's largest export destination. This reversal — from import source to export market — underscores how Brexit reconfigured trade flows: what previously moved freely within the single market now appears in extra-EU statistics on both sides.

2.4 Peru remained the largest single supplier by value

Peru maintained its position as the top import partner throughout the period, supplying €4.2M in 2015 and €3.7M in 2025. Peru's trade was also notably less volatile (coefficient of variation: 0.32) than that of other suppliers, suggesting a mature and stable trading relationship.

3. The emergence of an EU export sector and its structural implications

Perhaps the most surprising development of the decade was the EU's transformation from a negligible exporter to a significant player in global cassava flour markets.

3.1 Exports grew from virtually nothing to over €6 million

EU exports surged from €729K (195 tonnes) in 2015 to €6.1M (4,912 tonnes) in 2025 — a value increase of 742% and a volume increase of 2,419%. This growth, while dramatic in percentage terms, remained modest relative to imports in absolute value terms (€6.1M vs. €18.3M), meaning the EU remained a net importer in value. However, the trade deficit narrowed from €7.5M to €12.1M — growing in absolute terms but shrinking relative to total trade volume.

3.2 Export prices collapsed as volumes expanded

A key dynamic was the inverse relationship between export volume and price:

Export unit values fell by 67% over the period, from €3,736/t to €1,249/t. This strongly suggests that the EU's export growth was driven by lower-value denatured flour (CN 11062010), which commands higher unit prices than non-denatured flour but was likely used to offload surplus domestic production. The product-level data confirms that non-denatured flour (11062090) dominated exports at 4,442 tonnes, while denatured flour contributed 470 tonnes. However, denatured flour's share of exports had surged in recent years (reaching 951 tonnes in 2024), indicating growing use of the EU as a processing/re-export hub.

3.3 Spain, the Netherlands, and Cyprus emerged as export hubs

The EU's export growth was concentrated in a few member states:

Spain and the Netherlands, as major port countries, likely handled both transit and re-export trade. The extraordinary growth in Cyprus and Ireland (from near-zero to €687K and €987K respectively) suggests these countries became staging points for specific destination markets, possibly reflecting trade policy advantages or processing investments.

3.4 The UK became the top export destination

The United Kingdom absorbed €2.0M of EU cassava flour exports in 2025 (up from €238K in 2015, +749%), followed by the United States (€1.2M, +4,067%) and Saudi Arabia (€655K). The UK's prominence as a destination likely reflects post-Brexit trade dynamics: cassava flour that previously circulated freely within the EU single market now registers as an export. The growth of US and Middle Eastern markets suggests the EU was also capturing genuine new demand, though these flows exhibited high volatility (US CV: 1.29; Saudi Arabia CV: 1.14), indicating that these were opportunistic rather than stable relationships.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU cassava flour market underwent a fundamental structural transformation. The bloc's domestic production grew nearly 40-fold, converting it from a moderate net importer into a near self-sufficient producer with a net import reliance of just 0.5%. This production surge — likely concentrated in denatured cassava flour for feed and industrial uses — was accompanied by a parallel emergence of an export sector that grew from negligible volumes to nearly 5,000 tonnes.

The import side saw notable diversification: the supplier concentration index fell by 57%, with West African nations (Ghana, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Togo) and Brazil gaining substantial ground alongside the traditional leading supplier Peru. Meanwhile, Brexit reshaped intra-European trade flows, converting what was once internal EU commerce into registered imports and exports involving the United Kingdom.

Looking forward, the key vulnerabilities include the high volatility of export markets (particularly the US and Middle East), a detected supply-side price shock from Brazil in 2022, and the EU's growing export dependence on a small number of high-uncertainty destinations. Nevertheless, the overarching trend — toward greater autonomy and reduced import dependence — represents a significant strengthening of the EU's position in this niche but strategically relevant commodity market.