Market evolution: Cargo ships (CN 89019010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of sea-going cargo vessels (customs code 89019010) for the European Union with non-EU partners over the 2015–2025 period. The period was characterized by a significant divergence between import and export dynamics, leading to a substantial widening of the EU's trade deficit in this sector. Key trends include a robust increase in import values coupled with a stagnation in export performance, a notable geographic realignment of major trading partners, and a marked increase in the concentration of the EU's import supply base.

1. A Tale of Two Trajectories: Strong Imports Meet Stagnant Exports

The overall trade balance for cargo ships deteriorated dramatically over the decade, driven by fundamentally different trends in import and export values.

• Import values surged from €4.85 billion in 2015 to €6.46 billion in 2025, a rise of 33.0%. The peak year was 2022, reaching €8.34 billion.
• Export values, in contrast, were volatile but ultimately flat, ending the period at €4.36 billion, a slight decrease of 2.6% from the 2015 value of €4.48 billion.
• This divergence caused the trade deficit to balloon from €-380 million in 2015 to over €-2.10 billion in 2025, a more than fourfold increase in negativity.

A striking feature is the divergence between value and physical unit trends. While import and export values are reported, the quantity in net tonnes is consistently reported as zero across all years. However, the supplementary quantity (number of items) provides insight:

• Export volumes (number of ships) exploded from 433 items in 2015 to 15,934 in 2025. This indicates the EU exported a vastly higher number of smaller or lower-value vessels in 2025 compared to 2015.
• Import volumes (number of ships) remained relatively stable, moving from 353 items in 2015 to 321 in 2025.
• Consequently, the average value per exported ship plummeted from over €10 million to just over €273,000, while the average value per imported ship rose from €13.7 million to over €20.1 million. This suggests a shift in the EU's export profile towards higher-volume, lower-value units, while imports consist of fewer but more valuable vessels.

2. Geographic Realignment of EU Trade Partners

The list of top partners for both imports and exports shows significant evolution, reflecting changing global shipbuilding and shipping centre dynamics.

• On the import side, traditional maritime hubs remained important, but with notable shifts:
  • Hong Kong saw its import value to the EU more than double (+127.4%).
  • The Marshall Islands, a major flag-of-convenience state, remained a substantial partner (€146.5 million in 2025).
  • Germany became the dominant EU importer, with its share growing from €604 million to €1.89 billion (see EU member import dynamics).
• On the export side, the pattern is more complex:
  • Poland's role as an EU exporter collapsed, with its reported export value falling by 71.8% from €2.12 billion to €0.60 billion.
  • Conversely, Denmark's exports surged by 603.5%, from €145 million to €1.02 billion, becoming the EU's second-largest exporter after Germany.
  • Finland emerged as a significant new exporter, growing from €9 million to €332 million.
• The primary non-EU destinations for EU exports remained flag-of-convenience states like the Marshall Islands (€511 million in 2025) and Panama (€132 million), highlighting the prevalence of such registries in global shipping.

3. Market Concentration and Specialization Dynamics

The structure of the market, as measured by concentration and specialization, became increasingly asymmetric between imports and exports.

• Import sources became dramatically more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value nearly doubled, from 1,848 in 2015 to 3,661 in 2025. This indicates a significant consolidation, with the EU increasingly relying on a narrower set of countries for its seagoing cargo vessel imports.
• Export destinations, however, remained fragmented. The HHI for exports was much lower and stable, moving from 1,126 to 1,144, suggesting exports were spread across a wider and consistent set of partners.
• Specialization data for 2025 reveals a sharp internal EU divide. According to the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index:
  • Cyprus, Poland, and Denmark were the most specialized EU exporters, with very high RSCA values (approaching 1), meaning this product makes up a disproportionately large share of their exports.
  • Conversely, major economies like France, Belgium, and Slovenia were highly unspecialized (RSCA near -1), meaning cargo ships represent a negligible portion of their export baskets.
• A note on production: No PRODCOM (industrial production) data was mapped for this code, meaning we cannot directly assess changes in EU domestic production. However, the export volume trend (a 36-fold increase in ship numbers) coupled with the dramatic fall in average export value strongly suggests a structural shift in the type of vessels being produced and exported, rather than a simple decline in production volume.

Conclusion

The EU market for sea-going cargo vessels over 2015–2025 was defined by a growing internal imbalance. The bloc became a larger net importer, sourcing more valuable vessels from an increasingly concentrated pool of suppliers, while simultaneously exporting a vastly higher number of lower-value units. This points to a potential specialization in niche or smaller vessel segments for export, while relying on external suppliers for larger, more complex tonnage. The dramatic geographic shifts, particularly the rise of Denmark as a major exporter and the consolidation of Germany as the EU's primary import hub, underline a realignment within the European shipbuilding and trading landscape. The widening trade deficit highlights a growing challenge for the EU's strategic autonomy in this capital-intensive, strategically important sector.