Market evolution: Bone-in beef (CN 020120) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in fresh or chilled bovine cuts with bone in (customs code 020120) over the period 2015–2025. This product category, which excludes whole carcases and half-carcases, encompasses forequarters, hindquarters, compensated quarters, and other bone-in cuts. Over the decade, the EU's trade in this product was characterised by three broad dynamics: a substantial expansion of the trade surplus propelled largely by rising unit prices, a dramatic reorientation of export destinations away from traditional partners toward new high-growth markets, and a structural transformation within product sub-segments—above all the explosive rise of compensated quarters. Together, these shifts reveal a sector that became simultaneously more internationalised, more price-intensive, and more dependent on a changing set of geopolitical and commercial relationships.
1. A Surplus That More Than Doubled, Driven by Prices Rather Than Volumes
The EU's trade balance for bone-in beef strengthened markedly over the period. What began as a healthy but modest surplus in 2015 grew into a much larger one by 2025, though the underlying dynamics on the export and import sides differed in important ways.
The trade surplus widened from €299 million to €682 million
As shown in the General Overview, the EU's trade balance (exports minus imports) rose from €299.0 million in 2015 to €681.8 million in 2025—an increase of 128.0%. The net import reliance ratio remained negative throughout the period (from −0.55% to −1.19%), confirming that the EU was a consistent net exporter of this product, with the depth of that position roughly doubling over the decade. Trade intensity—the combined share of exports and imports relative to production—rose from 5.6% to 11.3%, while export propensity (exports as a share of production) more than doubled from 3.1% to 6.5%. In other words, the EU beef sector became considerably more export-oriented.
Export values nearly doubled while volumes rose only modestly
The headline comparison is striking: EU export values increased by 118.1% (from €368.7 million to €804.1 million), while export volumes grew by only 10.5% (from 102,750 tonnes to 113,550 tonnes). The unit export price accordingly rose by 97.4%, from €3,588 to €7,082 per tonne. This pattern indicates that the surplus expansion was overwhelmingly a price story rather than a volume story. Rising global beef prices, a shift toward higher-value sub-products (discussed in Section 3), and the growing importance of premium-oriented destinations all contributed to this outcome.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 368.7 | 804.1 | +118.1% |
| Export volume (t) | 102,750 | 113,550 | +10.5% |
| Export unit price (€/t) | 3,588 | 7,082 | +97.4% |
| Import value (€M) | 69.7 | 122.3 | +75.6% |
| Import volume (t) | 13,048 | 13,621 | +4.4% |
| Import unit price (€/t) | 5,340 | 8,981 | +68.2% |
| Trade balance (€M) | 299.0 | 681.8 | +128.0% |
Import prices rose even faster than export prices, but volumes barely moved
On the import side, values rose by 75.6% (from €69.7 million to €122.3 million) while volumes grew by only 4.4% (from 13,048 to 13,621 tonnes), implying a unit price increase of 68.2% (from €5,340 to €8,981 per tonne). Notably, the EU's import unit price remained consistently higher than its export unit price throughout the period—by a margin of roughly €1,900 per tonne in 2015 and €1,900 in 2025. This suggests that the EU tended to import relatively higher-value bone-in cuts (or source from higher-cost suppliers) while exporting in larger volumes at somewhat lower unit values.
EU beef production expanded, with value growth far outpacing volume growth
According to the production data, EU domestic production of this product increased by 16.3% in volume (from 5.52 million tonnes to 6.42 million tonnes) but by 86.7% in value (from €18.3 billion to €34.1 billion). This mirrors the trade price dynamics: domestic beef prices rose substantially, lifting the value of the entire sector. The combination of modestly higher production volumes and rapidly rising prices enabled the EU to capture greater export revenues without a proportional increase in physical output.
2. New Export Destinations Reshaped the EU's Trade Map
Perhaps the most dramatic story of the decade was the wholesale reorientation of EU bone-in beef exports toward a new set of destination markets. While the product had long been traded heavily with neighbouring and European countries, the period saw an explosion of exports to Türkiye and Algeria, alongside the significant decline of the United Kingdom as a destination—illustrating how geopolitics, trade policy, and market access can rapidly reshape agricultural trade flows.
Türkiye surged from near-zero to become the EU's largest single export market
The most extraordinary shift was the rise of Türkiye. In 2015, EU exports of bone-in beef to Türkiye amounted to just €135,572—a negligible share of total exports. By 2025, they had surged to €348.9 million, an increase of over 257,000%, making Türkiye the EU's single largest export destination by value. The volatility analysis confirms the extreme instability of this trade flow, with a coefficient of variation of 0.94 among the highest in the dataset. A price shock centred on 2021 (with an abnormality score of 48.8 and a 147.1% price shift) affected exports worth 28.1% of total EU export value that year. This rapid growth likely reflects Turkish market liberalisation and growing domestic demand, though it also introduces a significant concentration risk for EU exporters.
Algeria grew fourfold, confirming demand from North African markets
Algeria expanded from €21.4 million in 2015 to €106.8 million in 2025, a rise of 399.9%. Combined with Türkiye, these two markets alone absorbed roughly €455 million in 2025—more than half of all EU bone-in beef exports. Algeria's growth underscores the role of North African demand for EU beef, likely driven by food security considerations and trade preferences.
The United Kingdom lost its position as the primary export destination
In 2015, the UK was the EU's top export market for bone-in beef at €166.0 million—representing 45% of total EU exports. By 2025, this had fallen to €79.1 million, a decline of 52.3%. The minimum in the period was €52.5 million. While the UK remained an important partner, it was no longer dominant. This decline is consistent with the effects of Brexit, which introduced new customs procedures, sanitary and phytosanitary checks, and regulatory divergence, all of which increased the friction of EU–UK beef trade. Other European markets such as Bosnia and Herzegovina (from €68.8 million to €118.3 million, +71.9%), North Macedonia (from €17.8 million to €37.0 million, +107.3%), and Montenegro (from €7.5 million to €11.9 million, +59.0%) grew steadily, absorbing some of the lost UK volume.
| Export Partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 0.1 | 348.9 | +257,220% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 68.8 | 118.3 | +71.9% |
| Algeria | 21.4 | 106.8 | +399.9% |
| United Kingdom | 166.0 | 79.1 | −52.3% |
| North Macedonia | 17.8 | 37.0 | +107.3% |
| Norway | 60.6 | 50.0 | −17.5% |
| Montenegro | 7.5 | 11.9 | +59.0% |
On the import side, the United Kingdom remained dominant while North American suppliers gained ground
EU imports of bone-in beef were consistently dominated by the United Kingdom, which supplied €49.6 million in 2015 and €84.5 million in 2025 (+70.4%). The United States grew from €11.9 million to €26.3 million (+120.7%), and Canada surged from a negligible €21,076 to €1.07 million (+4,997.6%). Australia remained a modest supplier at €7.0 million (+25.1%). The import concentration (HHI of 5,267 in 2025) remained well above the threshold for high concentration, reflecting the persistent weight of the UK, but the index declined slightly (−3.0%), indicating modest diversification. Meanwhile, export concentration fell by 10.1% (from 2,717 to 2,442), moving from the "highly concentrated" range into the "moderately concentrated" range as new markets absorbed growing shares.
EU internal exporters underwent a significant redistribution
Among EU Member States, the export landscape shifted substantially. Poland rose from €61.2 million to €268.3 million (+338.3%), becoming the EU's largest exporter of bone-in beef by 2025. Italy surged from just €4.1 million to €118.2 million (+2,788.6%). Spain grew from €32.4 million to €111.6 million (+244.9%). In contrast, Ireland fell from €121.7 million to €52.5 million (−56.8%), and Germany declined from €64.6 million to €41.2 million (−36.2%). Poland's dominance is reflected in its revealed comparative advantage: with an RSCA of 0.54 and an RCA of 3.36 in 2025, Poland was by far the most specialised EU exporter in this product.
3. Compensated Quarters Drove a Product Mix Transformation
Behind the aggregate trade figures, a striking structural shift occurred within the sub-product categories that make up CN 020120. Compensated quarters (sub-code 02012020) evolved from a minor category into the single largest export product by value, reshaping the composition of EU bone-in beef trade.
Compensated quarters grew from 14% to 51% of total export value
The product segment breakdown reveals a dramatic transformation. In 2015, compensated quarters (02012020) accounted for just €52.7 million in exports (14.3% of the total). By 2025, this had risen to €407.7 million—fully 50.7% of all EU bone-in beef exports. In volume terms, compensated quarter exports grew from 16,208 tonnes to 59,050 tonnes (+264.3%), while their unit price rose from €3,253 to €6,904 per tonne (+112.2%). This sub-product thus combined both volume expansion and substantial price appreciation, accounting for the lion's share of the overall export growth.
| Export Sub-product | 2015 Value (€M) | 2025 Value (€M) | 2015 Share | 2025 Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forequarters (02012030) | 128.3 | 194.6 | 34.8% | 24.2% |
| Compensated (02012020) | 52.7 | 407.7 | 14.3% | 50.7% |
| Hindquarters (02012050) | 83.3 | 78.5 | 22.6% | 9.8% |
| Other cuts (02012090) | 104.4 | 123.3 | 28.3% | 15.3% |
Traditional forequarter and hindquarter exports declined in volume
While compensated quarters surged, the more traditional sub-categories stagnated or contracted. Forequarter exports (02012030) fell from 45,454 tonnes to 30,624 tonnes in volume (−32.6%), though their value rose modestly from €128.3 million to €194.6 million thanks to higher prices. Hindquarter exports (02012050) fell from 21,718 tonnes to 10,419 tonnes (−52.0%) and from €83.3 million to €78.5 million in value. The "other cuts" category (02012090) also saw a volume decline (from 19,370 to 13,456 tonnes). The combined effect was a trade that, in 2025, was dominated by a single sub-product where it had previously been more balanced across four.
Import sub-products reflected a parallel but more moderate structural shift
On the import side, the same sub-product categories evolved differently. Hindquarter imports (02012050) declined sharply—from 4,985 tonnes and €20.0 million in 2015 to just 1,270 tonnes and €9.4 million in 2025. Compensated quarter imports (02012020) more than doubled from 3,649 tonnes to 6,900 tonnes, while the "other cuts" category (02012090) grew from 4,135 tonnes to 5,269 tonnes. These shifts suggest that the EU's import needs moved toward different cut types, possibly reflecting changing domestic demand patterns or the changing composition of trade with the UK and other suppliers.
Price escalation was pervasive across all sub-products
Every sub-product category experienced significant price increases over the period, both in exports and imports. The most dramatic export price rises were observed in the "other cuts" category (02012090), where prices rose from €5,388 to €9,162 per tonne (+70.0%), and in compensated quarters (02012020), where prices more than doubled. On the import side, hindquarter import prices surged from €4,016 to €7,397 per tonne (+84.2%), and forequarter import prices from €4,620 to €7,528 per tonne (+62.9%). These broad-based price increases reflect global beef market tightening, feed cost pressures, and possibly the revaluation of EU beef in international markets.
2020 marked a clear cyclical trough linked to the COVID-19 pandemic
The year 2020 stands out across nearly all indicators. EU export volumes fell to their period minimum of 65,432 tonnes and export values to €226.0 million—the lowest points in the entire dataset. Import volumes also dipped to 9,396 tonnes. This trough is consistent with the disruption to foodservice, logistics, and trade flows caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The recovery from 2021 onward was swift, with volumes rebounding by 2022 and values accelerating further through 2025, suggesting that the pandemic represented a temporary shock rather than a structural break.
Conclusion
The decade 2015–2025 transformed the EU's trade in bone-in beef (CN 020120) along several dimensions. The EU consolidated its position as a net exporter, with the trade surplus more than doubling to €682 million. However, this expansion was driven far more by rising unit prices—up 97% on the export side—than by volume growth, which was a more modest 10.5%. Geographically, the trade map was redrawn: Türkiye emerged from near-irrelevance to become the largest single export destination (€349 million), and Algeria quadrupled to €107 million, while the United Kingdom's share halved in the wake of Brexit. At the product level, compensated quarters evolved from a minor sub-category to the dominant export product, accounting for over half of export value by 2025, while forequarter and hindquarter volumes contracted. EU domestic production grew 16% in volume but 87% in value, mirroring the price-driven dynamics observed in trade. Looking ahead, the growing concentration of exports in a small number of high-growth markets—particularly Türkiye—and the extreme volatility associated with that trade (coefficient of variation of 0.94, with a major price shock in 2021) represent a vulnerability that merits close monitoring. The EU's bone-in beef sector has become more profitable and more internationalised, but also more exposed to the price and policy risks inherent in its newly reoriented trade relationships.