Market evolution: Arc welding machines (CN 851531) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in fully or partly automatic machines for arc welding of metals, including plasma arc welding (Combined Nomenclature code 851531), over the period 2015–2025. The EU has historically been a major producer and net exporter in this segment, but the decade witnessed profound structural shifts: a surge in imports (particularly from China), a move upmarket in export pricing, and a near-complete redirection away from Russia following geopolitical sanctions. Using trade value, volume, unit-price and concentration indicators, the following sections identify the main dynamics shaping this market. (General overview)
1. A tale of two trajectories: modest export growth versus explosive import expansion
EU exports grew in value but contracted in volume
Over the full period, EU exports of CN 851531 rose from €355.3 million (2015) to €416.5 million (2025), a cumulative increase of 17.2 %. However, the exported volume actually fell by 21.9 %, from 10,898 tonnes to 8,516 tonnes. The reconciliation lies in unit values: the average export price climbed from €32,606 per tonne to €48,910 per tonne (+50.0 %), indicating that EU producers increasingly concentrated on higher-value, more technologically advanced welding equipment.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 355.3 | 416.5 | +17.2 % |
| Export volume (t) | 10,898 | 8,516 | −21.9 % |
| Export unit value (€/t) | 32,606 | 48,910 | +50.0 % |
Imports surged across all dimensions
By contrast, EU imports more than doubled in value (+133.5 %) and nearly quadrupled in volume (+271.5 %). Imports grew from €62.1 million / 2,204 tonnes in 2015 to €145.0 million / 8,187 tonnes in 2025. Notably, the average import price declined from €28,184 per tonne to €17,713 per tonne (−37.2 %), suggesting that much of the import growth came from lower-cost suppliers entering or expanding their share of the EU market.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (€M) | 62.1 | 145.0 | +133.5 % |
| Import volume (t) | 2,204 | 8,187 | +271.5 % |
| Import unit value (€/t) | 28,184 | 17,713 | −37.2 % |
The trade surplus narrowed but persisted
The EU's trade balance in arc welding machines remained positive throughout the decade, moving from €293.2 million in 2015 to €271.5 million in 2025 (−7.4 %). The net import reliance indicator deepened from −16.6 % to −52.0 %, confirming that the EU remained structurally self-sufficient in this product — but with a progressively eroding margin as import penetration accelerated.
2. The rise of China and the reconfiguration of trade geography
China became the EU's dominant import source
The most dramatic structural shift on the import side was the explosive growth of Chinese suppliers. EU imports from China rose from €10.7 million in 2015 to €60.3 million in 2025 — an increase of 462.6 %. At their peak, imports from China reached €78.4 million, making China by far the largest single source. Japan remained the second-largest supplier, growing more moderately from €24.5 million to €38.5 million (+57.4 %). Türkiye also emerged as a significant new source, with imports rising from a negligible €0.4 million to €5.7 million (+1,238.3 %).
| Top import origins | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 10.7 | 60.3 | +462.6 % |
| Japan | 24.5 | 38.5 | +57.4 % |
| United States | 12.6 | 9.7 | −23.6 % |
| Türkiye | 0.4 | 5.7 | +1,238.3 % |
| Korea, Republic of | 5.6 | 8.9 | +59.3 % |
EU export markets: the US expanded, Russia collapsed
On the export side, the United States became the EU's largest single destination, growing from €45.1 million to €86.5 million (+91.7 %). Meanwhile, Russia — formerly the EU's fourth-largest export market at €43.7 million in 2015 — collapsed to just €186,000 in 2025 (−99.6 %), almost certainly reflecting EU sanctions imposed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Exports to China also declined significantly (from €58.3 million to €33.7 million, −42.2 %), likely reflecting the expansion of China's own domestic production capacity. Mexico (+88.7 %) and the United Kingdom (+19.9 %) offered partial compensating growth.
| Top export destinations | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 45.1 | 86.5 | +91.7 % |
| China | 58.3 | 33.7 | −42.2 % |
| United Kingdom | 29.2 | 35.1 | +19.9 % |
| Russian Federation | 43.7 | 0.2 | −99.6 % |
| Mexico | 11.4 | 21.4 | +88.7 % |
Export concentration remained low; import concentration rose moderately
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports stayed consistently below 1,125 throughout the period (779 in 2015, 810 in 2025), confirming a well-diversified export base. Import-side HHI, by contrast, rose from 2,400 to 2,597, indicating moderate and slightly increasing concentration — a natural consequence of China's growing dominance as a supplier.
3. Production growth, price shocks, and the EU's evolving competitive position
EU production volumes expanded strongly while values lagged
EU domestic production of arc welding machines grew by 76.8 % in quantity (from approximately 269,000 units to 475,000 units) but only 16.7 % in value (from €651 million to €760 million). This implies a decline in average production value per unit, suggesting EU manufacturers adjusted their product mix — potentially increasing output of mid-range machines while ceding the low-cost segment to imports.
A handful of EU members dominated production and trade
In 2025, the most specialised EU producers — measured by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) — included Luxembourg (RSCA 0.72), Slovenia (0.71), Finland (0.68), Austria (0.55) and Hungary (0.42). Germany was by far the largest single exporter (€146.2 million in 2025), followed by Austria (€86.8 million) and Italy (€45.4 million). Several smaller member states (Romania, Hungary, the Netherlands) showed very high growth rates from a lower base, reflecting either new industrial investment or re-export activity. (Specialisation rankings)
Price shocks were rare but notable
The volatility analysis identified three standout shock events:
- UK exports, 2022 — a price spike of +61.9 % (abnormality score 13.0), coinciding with post-Brexit supply-chain adjustments and the UK's growing need for autonomous sourcing.
- US imports, 2022 — a price drop of −49.9 % (abnormality 10.3), potentially reflecting oversupply from Asian competitors or a shift in the product mix imported.
- South Africa exports, 2020 — a price increase of +56.1 % (abnormality 19.8), occurring during the COVID-19 pandemic when supply disruptions and currency volatility distorted smaller-market transactions.
Overall, the coefficient of variation (CV) in import flows was highest for Türkiye (1.66) and Korea (1.02), while export flows were most volatile to the United Arab Emirates (1.74) and Korea (1.11), indicating that these bilateral corridors are more sensitive to economic cycles or policy changes. (Supply shock events)
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's arc welding machine market underwent a fundamental reorientation. The EU maintained its status as a net exporter, with export values rising 17 % and unit prices climbing 50 % — a clear sign of a move toward premium, high-specification equipment. However, this positive headline masks growing competitive pressure: imports nearly tripled in volume and more than doubled in value, driven overwhelmingly by Chinese suppliers whose price point is roughly 64 % below the EU export average (€17,713/t vs. €48,910/t in 2025). The near-total loss of the Russian export market (−99.6 %) forced EU exporters to pivot toward the United States and other destinations, largely successfully. EU production volumes expanded robustly, but the faster growth of import volumes relative to domestic output signals that import penetration is rising. Looking ahead, the key structural question for this sector is whether EU manufacturers can sustain their premium positioning — and whether China's import growth will plateau or continue to accelerate.