Market evolution: Acrylic paints (CN 32082090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in non-aqueous acrylic and vinyl polymer-based paints and varnishes (CN 32082090) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on trade flows (value, volume, and unit price), partner-level breakdowns, concentration metrics, production data, and volatility indicators. Three main dynamics emerge from the data: (i) a strong expansion of EU export performance, driven substantially by rising prices; (ii) a major geopolitical reorientation of trade partners, most notably the collapse of exports to Russia and the surge in imports from China; and (iii) growing international integration of the EU paint industry alongside an enhanced net-exporter position.

1. Rising Export Values and the Price–Volume Divergence

EU export growth was primarily price-led rather than volume-led

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of acrylic paints rose from €445.6 million to €703.2 million, a gain of 57.8%. However, the physical volume exported increased by only 13.6% (from 88,186 tonnes to 100,180 tonnes). The average export unit price climbed 38.8%, from €5,053/t to €7,015/t, peaking at €7,455/t in 2022. This indicates that the majority of export value growth was driven by price increases — likely reflecting higher raw material costs, product mix shifts toward higher-value coatings, and the general inflationary environment of the early 2020s — rather than a large expansion in physical shipments.

Import dynamics tell a different story: volume fell while value rose

EU imports followed a contrasting pattern. Import value increased 28.9% (from €148.5M to €191.3M), yet import volume actually declined by 10.3% (from 33,269t to 29,843t). The import unit price surged 43.6%, from €4,463/t to €6,410/t. The simultaneous drop in volume and rise in price suggests that the EU has become more selective in its import sourcing, with costlier products entering the market. The gap between export and import prices also widened: the EU exported at a 9.4% premium over imports in 2015 (€5,053 vs. €4,463/t), rising to a 9.4% premium in 2025 (€7,015 vs. €6,410/t), pointing to a consistent position in higher-value-added product segments.

The EU trade surplus widened significantly, reinforcing a strong net-exporter position

The trade balance expanded from €297.1 million in 2015 to €511.9 million in 2025, an increase of 72.3%. The net import reliance shifted from −13.0% to −60.3% (negative values denote a net-exporter status), indicating that the EU's self-sufficiency in this product category strengthened markedly over the decade.

Domestic production remained broadly stable in volume while value increased

EU production volumes fluctuated between 259 million kg (minimum) and 438 million kg (maximum) over the period, ending at 351 million kg in 2025 — only 1.2% above 2015. In contrast, production value rose 19.8%, from €1.20 billion to €1.44 billion. This confirms the broader pattern: the EU paint industry is producing similar volumes but at higher unit values, consistent with a move toward more specialised, higher-margin formulations.

2. Geopolitical Realignment: The Collapse of Russia and the Rise of China

Exports to Russia collapsed entirely following 2022 sanctions

The most dramatic single-country shock in the dataset is the near-total disappearance of EU exports to the Russian Federation. In 2015, Russia was the EU's third-largest export destination for acrylic paints at €55.5 million. By 2025, exports had fallen to a negligible €1,283 — a 100% decline. This is a direct consequence of EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The coefficient of variation for this trade flow is the highest among all major partners at 0.59, reflecting extreme instability driven by the policy shock.

Turkey, the United States, and Ukraine absorbed part of the lost Russian market

With Russia removed from the picture, EU exporters redirected flows. Exports to Turkey grew 136.2% (from €33.1M to €78.2M), making Turkey the second-largest export market by 2025. The United States saw an even more rapid percentage increase of 143.2% (from €28.2M to €68.6M). Ukraine also grew strongly at 92.5% (from €10.5M to €20.2M), possibly reflecting reconstruction-related demand and EU integration trends.

China's role as an import source surged sixfold

On the import side, the most striking development is China's rise from €1.8 million in 2015 to €12.7 million in 2025 — an increase of 614.4%. China moved from a marginal supplier to the fourth-largest import partner. This growth likely reflects China's expanding coatings production capacity and competitive pricing, though its share remains moderate relative to the UK, which is the EU's dominant import source. The United Kingdom grew 30.9% (from €91.0M to €119.0M), retaining its position as the leading supplier, partly reflecting post-Brexit trade flow reporting and geographical proximity. Switzerland, by contrast, saw a 22.5% decline in exports to the EU (from €29.6M to €22.9M).

Export concentration remained low; import concentration stayed moderate

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports stood at 604 in 2015 and fell to 565 by 2025 (−6.5%), indicating a well-diversified and slightly further dispersed export base. Import HHI was considerably higher at 4,203 in 2015 and 4,131 in 2025 (−1.7%), reflecting the dominant role of the UK as a source. Both indices declined modestly, suggesting gradual diversification rather than increased concentration.

3. Growing Internationalisation and Specialisation of EU Paint Makers

Trade intensity and export propensity both doubled over the decade

The EU's trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production value) rose from 28.1% to 56.7%, while export propensity (exports as a share of production value) increased from 21.2% to 51.0% — a gain of 140.9%. These are among the most significant structural shifts in the dataset: the EU's acrylic paint industry has become dramatically more export-oriented. By 2025, roughly half of domestic production value was being shipped to non-EU markets, up from about one-fifth a decade earlier.

Germany anchors EU production and exports; Spain and Italy show the strongest growth

EU export production is dominated by Germany, which accounted for 35.1% of production and grew its exports from €149.3M to €230.3M (+54.3%). Spain showed the most explosive growth at +209.8% (from €19.3M to €59.6M), followed by France at +125.8% (from €20.9M to €47.3M) and Italy at +75.6% (from €34.0M to €59.7M). On the import side, Belgium (from €5.9M to €33.8M, +473.2%) and Italy (from €9.7M to €26.5M, +172.9%) saw the largest absolute and percentage increases among EU member states, suggesting these countries may be developing re-export or distribution hub roles.

The UK remained by far the most stable bilateral relationship

Looking at volatility, the United Kingdom stands out as the EU's most predictable trade partner for this product, with a coefficient of variation of just 0.08 for exports and 0.11 for imports. This reflects deep supply-chain integration and geographic proximity. By contrast, Korea (Republic of) showed the highest import volatility at 0.99, and Russia the highest export volatility at 0.59, both driven by abrupt shifts — geopolitical in the latter case.

Price shocks in 2022 affected several distant export markets

The shock analysis detected notable price anomalies centred on 2022. Brazil experienced the most abnormal export price shift (abnormality score of 16.9, +16.8%), followed by Korea (+22.7%, abnormality 6.6) and Australia (+29.7%, abnormality 4.5). These are consistent with the global commodity and logistics cost pressures of 2022 — the year of surging energy prices and supply-chain disruptions — and are concentrated in geographically distant markets where transport cost pass-through is amplified.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in acrylic paints and varnishes (CN 32082090) evolved substantially between 2015 and 2025. Three defining trends stand out. First, export values grew much faster than volumes, indicating that the EU's competitive advantage lies increasingly in higher-value, higher-priced products rather than bulk output. Second, geopolitical upheaval — principally the sanctions-driven collapse of trade with Russia — reshaped the EU's export geography, redirecting flows toward Turkey, the US, and Ukraine, while China emerged as a rapidly growing import source. Third, the EU's paint industry became far more internationally oriented: export propensity roughly doubled, and the net surplus widened to over €500 million, cementing the EU's position as a major net exporter. Looking ahead, the continued rise of China as a supplier, the evolution of EU–UK trade arrangements post-Brexit, and the sustainability of high export prices in a potentially slower-growth environment are likely to shape the next phase of this market's development.