Market evolution: Wool knitwear (CN 61101190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in women's and girls' wool knitwear (Combined Nomenclature code 61101190) over the period 2015–2025. This product covers knitted or crocheted jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles of wool, excluding heavy jerseys and pullovers (≥ 50 % wool, ≥ 600 g/article) and wadded waistcoats. Over the decade, EU trade in this category underwent a profound structural transformation: the bloc shifted from being a modest net importer to a near net exporter, while export unit values more than doubled and EU domestic production collapsed. The following sections analyse these dynamics in detail.

For the product scope and official nomenclature hierarchy, see the Scope & Definitions page.

1. From Trade Deficit to Near Self-Sufficiency: The Balance-Sheet Turnaround

1.1 The trade balance swung decisively toward surplus

The EU's trade balance in CN 61101190 moved from a deficit of €97.9 million in 2015 to a negligible deficit of just €4.3 million in 2025 — a 95.7 % improvement. At its peak, the balance reached a surplus of €36.4 million, indicating that the EU briefly became a net exporter in value terms. The net import reliance indicator moved from +3.1 % (slightly import-dependent) in 2015 to −14.7 % (net exporter) in 2025.

1.2 Export value grew twice as fast as import value

The driving force behind the balance improvement was that exports roughly doubled in value (+103.5 %, from €257.6 M to €524.1 M), while imports grew by a more moderate 48.6 % (from €355.5 M to €528.4 M).

1.3 Domestic production collapsed even as exports surged

A striking paradox emerges when production data is considered. EU production volume in pieces fell from 150.4 million to 17.6 million (−88.3 %), and production value declined from €1.43 billion to €605 million (−57.8 %). This implies that the surviving EU production base has pivoted sharply toward high-value items for export, while the mass-market segment has been almost entirely ceded to imports or discontinued domestically.

2. A Two-Speed Market: Premium Exports and Volume-Driven Imports

2.1 Export unit values surged while import prices stagnated

The most revealing dynamic in this product category is the dramatic divergence in unit values between exports and imports. EU export unit prices per tonne rose by 91.2 % (from €132,737 to €253,799), while import prices per tonne edged down by 2.4 % (from €59,442 to €58,017). Measured per piece, the gap is even starker:

By 2025, an average EU-exported piece of wool knitwear cost 4.6 times more than an average imported piece (€89 vs. €19), up from 2.3 times in 2015. This is consistent with EU producers concentrating on luxury and premium-positioned garments (Italian cashmere blends, Scandinavian design brands, etc.), while the volume market is served by low-cost Asian suppliers.

2.2 Import volumes grew substantially but value lagged behind

EU imports of this product grew by 52.2 % in tonnes (from 5,980 to 9,100 tonnes) and by 44.5 % in piece count (from 19.0 million to 27.5 million pieces), while import value rose 48.6 %. The near-alignment of volume and value growth for imports, combined with stable or declining per-unit prices, indicates that the EU import market expanded primarily through additional units of affordable knitwear rather than through trading up.

2.3 The export volume plateau masks a deepening value specialisation

Export volumes in tonnes grew only 6.4 % over the decade and supplementary-unit quantities actually fell by 3.4 % (from 6.08 M to 5.87 M pieces). Yet export value doubled. This means the EU is exporting roughly the same number of pieces at much higher prices — a textbook sign of increasing specialisation in the premium segment. Italy, the EU's leading exporter, commands an RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) of 0.52 and an RCA of 3.19, confirming a strong and persistent specialisation in this product line.

3. Geographic Realignment: New Asian Suppliers and a Transatlantic Export Pivot

3.1 Imports: China dominates, but South-East Asian suppliers gained ground rapidly

China remained the EU's largest source of imports throughout the period, accounting for €320.5 M (61 % of total imports) in 2025. However, the fastest growth came from emerging South-East Asian suppliers:

The import concentration HHI (by value) remained relatively stable at around 3,786–3,834, indicating persistent supplier concentration on China despite the diversification. Two notable shifts stand out:

• Viet Nam surged from €1.3 M to €20.1 M (+1,415 %), the fastest growth rate of any supplier, although its volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.95) reflects a still-nascent and uneven trade flow.
• Serbia collapsed from €12.6 M to €1.5 M (−87.9 %), a decline that may reflect EU sourcing shifts away from Western Balkans suppliers or production restructuring in Serbia.
• United Kingdom imports declined by 31.8 %, likely a consequence of post-Brexit trade friction and new customs formalities.

3.2 Exports: The United States and China became key growth markets

EU export destinations shifted markedly over the decade:

The US emerged as the single largest external destination (€79.7 M), overtaking the UK and Switzerland. EU exports to China grew by 621 %, likely reflecting rising demand from China's affluent middle class for European luxury knitwear. In contrast, exports to Russia declined by 32.6 %, consistent with the impact of EU sanctions and geopolitical tensions from 2022 onward. The export concentration HHI fell from 1,124 to 907, confirming that export destinations became more diversified.

3.3 EU Member State roles: Italy leads exports; the Netherlands and Spain emerge as fast-growing importers

Among EU Member States, Italy dominated exports with €204.9 M in 2025 (+70.8 %), reflecting its heritage in premium knitwear (cashmere, merino). France was the fastest-growing major exporter (€33.4 M → €160.3 M, +380 %), potentially reflecting the expansion of luxury fashion houses' own-brand exports. On the import side, Germany remained the largest importer (€125.2 M, −6.0 %), while Spain (+283.7 %) and the Netherlands (+116.0 %) saw the fastest import growth, possibly linked to the rise of fast-fashion distribution hubs.

3.4 Price shock events highlight structural vulnerabilities

Three significant price shocks were detected:

• Switzerland (exports, 2019): A 45.2 % unit-price surge with an abnormality score of 16.8, affecting an 18.5 % value share. This may reflect a compositional shift toward higher-value EU exports or exchange-rate effects.
• United States (exports, 2022): A 133.9 % price shift (abnormality 11.1), coinciding with post-pandemic supply-chain disruptions and strong US consumer demand for European luxury goods.
• United Kingdom (imports, 2021): A 166.4 % unit-price spike (abnormality 11.0), likely linked to Brexit-related customs adjustments that temporarily inflated reported unit values.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU trade in women's and girls' wool knitwear (CN 61101190) underwent a fundamental structural transformation. The EU shifted from a net-importing position (deficit of €97.9 M) to near-balance (deficit of €4.3 M), driven by a doubling of export values that far outpaced import growth. This shift, however, masks a deeper polarisation: EU exports became dramatically more expensive (unit values roughly doubling), while imports remained cheap and volume-driven. Domestic production collapsed by 88 % in quantity, suggesting that the EU's remaining knitwear industry has consolidated around high-value, premium-positioned output — principally from Italy and increasingly France. Geographically, the import supply chain remains dominated by China but is diversifying toward Bangladesh, Cambodia, and especially Viet Nam, while export markets pivoted strongly toward the United States and China. The combination of declining production volumes, rising export unit values, and growing import dependence for the mass market signals a classic pattern of industrial upgrading — but also one that leaves the EU exposed to supply-chain concentration risk from a small number of Asian suppliers.