Market evolution: Women's other garments (CN 621149) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 621149 — women's or girls' tracksuits and other garments, n.e.s., made from textile materials other than cotton or man-made fibres, and neither knitted nor crocheted — within the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The category covers a niche but commercially significant segment of the EU apparel industry, encompassing silk, wool, linen, and other non-cotton, non-synthetic garments that are not knitted or crocheted. The EU entered this period as a dominant net exporter, with a trade surplus exceeding €1 billion in 2015. However, over the subsequent decade, the market has undergone a profound structural transformation: export values have collapsed by two-thirds, domestic production volumes have fallen by nearly three-quarters, and import flows — while still far smaller in absolute terms — have surged. These shifts reflect the interplay of changing global demand patterns, the hollowing out of European production capacity, evolving sourcing strategies, and geopolitical disruptions. The full dashboard for CN 621149 provides the underlying data.

1. The EU's export value collapse: high volumes, collapsing prices

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic erosion of EU export value in this product category, falling from €1.09 billion to €367 million — a decline of 66.4%. Yet this decline was not driven by a withdrawal from the market in volumetric terms: export quantities actually rose from 7,505 tonnes to 8,407 tonnes (+12.0%). The explanation lies overwhelmingly in a collapse of unit export prices, which fell from €145,521 per tonne to just €43,667 per tonne — a decline of 70.0%.

1.1. The unit-price collapse signals a fundamental shift in the product mix

The near-halving of export unit values over a decade, even as volumes held up, strongly suggests a compositional shift in what the EU exports under this code. In 2015, EU exports likely consisted predominantly of high-value-added luxury and premium garments — silk blouses, wool garments, and other fine textile products from France and Italy. The data from the top reporters confirms this: France and Italy together accounted for over €1.06 billion in exports in 2015 (the vast majority of the total), falling to just €318 million by 2025. Italy's decline was especially severe, dropping from €450 million to €55 million (−87.9%). France fell from €609 million to €263 million (−56.8%). These two countries' exports were historically concentrated in high-unit-value luxury garments. As their share diminished, the average price per tonne fell commensurately.

1.2. Asian and Russian markets drove the value decline

The partner-level data reveals that the EU's largest export markets all contracted sharply:

Hong Kong, once the single largest destination for EU exports of this product (€241 million in 2015), saw the steepest absolute decline. This likely reflects both the decline of Hong Kong as a re-export hub for luxury goods destined for mainland China and broader shifts in Asian consumer demand. The collapse of exports to Russia (−97.2%) is almost certainly linked to EU sanctions imposed after 2022, which effectively severed most apparel trade flows. Switzerland stands out as the only top partner that saw growth, rising from €27 million to €35 million — consistent with its role as a stable, high-income, proximate market less exposed to geopolitical disruption.

1.3. Concentration fell as the market fragmented

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports declined from 995 to 738 (−25.9%), indicating that EU exports became less concentrated among a few dominant partners. This is consistent with the collapse of the major Asian destinations: as Hong Kong, Japan, and China shrank in importance, smaller markets — including Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and various African and Middle Eastern countries — gained share proportionally, even if they did not grow in absolute terms.

2. Import surge and sourcing diversification: the near-shoring effect

While exports dominated the trade balance, the import side tells a very different story — one of sustained growth and structural diversification. EU imports of CN 621149 rose from €67.7 million to €105.9 million (+56.3%) in value, and from 1,230 tonnes to 2,587 tonnes (+110.3%) in quantity. Import unit prices fell by 25.8%, from €55,051/t to €40,841/t, though less dramatically than export prices.

2.1. Morocco and Bangladesh emerged as major suppliers

The most notable development on the import side was the rapid rise of near-shoring and low-cost sourcing origins. The partner data shows:

China remained the largest single supplier, but its growth was modest (+22.3%) compared to the explosive growth of Morocco and Bangladesh. Morocco's imports quadrupled, rising from €4.1 million to €17.8 million — a shift consistent with the EU's broader strategy of near-shoring apparel production to the southern Mediterranean. Bangladesh's imports grew more than twelvefold, from a low base of €568,000 to €7.0 million, reflecting the country's expanding garment manufacturing capabilities and its duty-free access to the EU market under the Everything But Arms (EBA) arrangement.

2.2. The EU import market became more diversified

The import HHI fell from 1,651 to 1,313 (−20.5%), moving from moderate concentration towards a more competitive structure. This reflects the combined effect of China's declining share and the emergence of Morocco, Bangladesh, and other suppliers. The EU reduced its single-supplier dependence, though China still accounted for a plurality of imports. The volatility analysis reinforces this picture: import flows from established suppliers like India (coefficient of variation, CV = 0.36) were relatively stable, while newer or smaller suppliers showed much higher variability — Vietnam (CV = 1.03) and Cambodia (CV = 1.22) exhibited the most erratic import patterns.

2.3. Spain and the Netherlands emerged as key importing Member States

On the Member State reporting side, Spain's imports surged from €8.3 million to €28.8 million (+247.9%), making it the largest EU importer by 2025 — overtaking France (€31.4 million, relatively stable). The Netherlands also grew strongly (+95.8%, to €11.1 million), likely reflecting its role as a logistics hub. This growth in Spanish imports aligns with Spain's emergence as a key near-shoring coordinator for North African suppliers, particularly Morocco.

3. Hollowing out of EU production and the reconfiguration of intra-EU specialisation

Beneath the trade figures lies a more fundamental story: the sharp contraction of EU domestic production in this product category. This decline reshaped the trade balance, the geographic distribution of exports within the EU, and the specialisation patterns across Member States.

3.1. EU production volumes collapsed while values proved more resilient

According to PRODCOM production data, EU production of CN 621149 items fell from 26.2 million pieces in 2015 to just 6.9 million pieces in 2025 (−73.5%). Production value, however, declined by a more moderate 23.9% (from €199 million to €151 million). This divergence implies that the average value per unit produced increased substantially — from roughly €7.60 per piece to €21.77 per piece. The interpretation is straightforward: lower-value, higher-volume production migrated out of the EU, while remaining domestic output shifted towards higher-value-added segments. This is consistent with the EU's broader apparel manufacturing trajectory, where mass-market production relocates to lower-cost countries while Europe retains niche, premium production.

3.2. France and Italy lost export dominance; Central and Eastern European producers gained ground

The reshaping of the EU's internal production geography is visible in the export reporter data:

Italy's export collapse (−87.9%) is the most dramatic, likely reflecting both the loss of Asian demand for Italian luxury garments and the relocation of production to lower-cost countries. Romania and Poland, by contrast, emerged as small but rapidly growing exporters — consistent with their roles as lower-cost EU production platforms for Western European brands. Romania's growth from €332,000 to €6.0 million and Poland's from €723,000 to €3.2 million reflect the eastward migration of apparel manufacturing within the EU itself.

3.3. The trade surplus narrowed dramatically but the EU remained structurally dependent on exports

The EU trade balance fell from €1.02 billion to €261.5 million (−74.5%). Despite this erosion, the EU still maintained a substantial surplus in 2025, as exports (€367 million) continued to vastly exceed imports (€106 million). The export propensity — exports as a share of production — actually rose from 490% to 607%, indicating that the EU became more export-oriented even as absolute volumes declined. This seemingly paradoxical result is explained by the fact that production contracted even faster than exports: much of what the EU now produces under this code is destined for foreign markets (especially Switzerland, the US, and the UK). Meanwhile, trade intensity — the combined openness of the EU market — fell from 224% to 167%, reflecting the overall contraction in trade volumes relative to domestic economic activity.

3.4. Specialisation became concentrated in a handful of Member States

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that only a few EU Member States retained meaningful specialisation in this product:

Spain, with an RSCA of 0.64 and a 26.2% share of EU production, emerged as the dominant producer among specialised Member States. Poland, at 11.5% of production with moderate specialisation, confirmed its growing role. At the other end, the Baltic states and Finland showed near-zero specialisation (negative RSCA values), indicating that they are structurally non-competitive in this category.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 621149 garments underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The EU's traditional position as a dominant exporter of high-value non-cotton, non-synthetic women's garments was severely eroded: export values fell by 66.4% and unit prices by 70.0%, driven by the collapse of demand in Asian markets (Hong Kong, Japan, China) and the near-total cessation of trade with Russia following sanctions. Domestic production volumes fell by 73.5%, though the surviving production shifted to higher-value items. On the import side, sourcing diversified meaningfully away from sole reliance on China, with Morocco and Bangladesh emerging as fast-growing suppliers — a pattern consistent with broader European near-shoring trends in the apparel sector. The trade surplus, while still substantial at €262 million, was 74.5% smaller than a decade earlier. Looking ahead, the structural decline in EU production capacity, combined with growing import competition from North African and South Asian suppliers, suggests that this surplus will continue to narrow. The category's future within the EU appears increasingly defined by a small number of specialised producers (notably Spain and Poland) and by high-value niche manufacturing, rather than the large-scale luxury export volumes that characterised the mid-2010s.