Market evolution: Women's man-made fibre blouses (CN 620640) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in women's or girls' blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses of man-made fibres (Combined Nomenclature code 620640) over the period 2015–2025. This product category encompasses woven (non-knitted) blouses and shirts made from synthetic or artificial fibres such as polyester, viscose, or acrylic — a large and commercially significant segment of the EU's ready-made clothing market.

The decade under review has been one of dramatic structural transformation. EU domestic production of this product category has contracted sharply, imports have declined in volume but shifted in geographic composition, and the bloc's net import reliance has surged. These trends reflect the combined impact of COVID-19 disruptions, post-Brexit trade reconfiguration, shifting global sourcing strategies, and evolving consumer preferences. The analysis below is organised around three principal findings.

1. A Contracting Market: Shrinking Trade Volumes Amid Rising Unit Values

Both imports and exports have declined substantially in volume

The most striking headline trend over 2015–2025 is a broad-based contraction in physical trade flows. EU imports of CN 620640 fell from 57,650 tonnes (301.2 million pieces) in 2015 to 36,727 tonnes (174.5 million pieces) in 2025, representing declines of 36.3% by mass and 42.1% by piece count (trade overview). The contraction in exports was even steeper: from 13,691 tonnes (62.1 million pieces) to 4,706 tonnes (20.3 million pieces), a drop of 65.6% by mass and 67.4% by piece count.

Unit values have risen significantly, especially for exports

While volumes contracted, prices per unit moved in the opposite direction. The average import price edged up from €30,642 per tonne to €32,349 per tonne (+5.6%), and the per-piece import price rose from €5.86 to €6.77 (+15.4%). The export side saw a much more dramatic repricing: the per-tonne export value climbed from €46,681 to €73,854 (+58.2%), and the per-piece export price jumped from €10.29 to €17.16 (+66.8%).

This divergence suggests that the EU has been increasingly concentrating its remaining exports on higher-value segments of the market — likely branded, fashion-forward, or technically differentiated products — while import volumes have fallen partly due to price inflation and partly due to genuine demand shifts.

EU domestic production has been in freefall

The decline in trade volumes mirrors an even steeper contraction of domestic production. EU production of CN 620640 fell from 158.1 million pieces (€1.41 billion) in 2015 to just 61.5 million pieces (€775 million) in 2025 — a collapse of 61.1% in volume and 45.1% in value. This means the EU's output of man-made fibre blouses has been roughly halved over the decade, reflecting the broader deindustrialisation of low-to-mid-range garment manufacturing in Europe.

2. Shifting Geography: The Reshaping of Supplier and Export Destinations

China remains the dominant supplier but has lost ground

China was the EU's single largest source of imports throughout the period, but its share has eroded. Imports from China fell from €536 million in 2015 to €359 million in 2025 (−33.1%), though China still accounted for roughly 30% of total import value in 2025 (top partners).

Bangladesh is the clear winner among suppliers

Against the general downward trend, Bangladesh stands out as the only major supplier to have increased its export value to the EU, rising from €79 million in 2015 to €127 million in 2025 (+61.2%). This mirrors a well-documented shift in global garment sourcing toward lower-cost South Asian producers, driven by competitive labour costs and preferential trade arrangements.

Türkiye, India, and Indonesia have suffered steep declines

The most notable losers among traditional suppliers were:

The UK's near-total disappearance from the import rankings is a direct consequence of Brexit: what were intra-EU flows until 2020 became third-country trade subject to customs formalities, rules of origin, and — for many textile products — tariffs that eroded competitiveness.

Export destinations have been reshuffled by Brexit and geopolitical shifts

On the export side, the most dramatic change was the collapse of exports to the United Kingdom: from €228 million in 2015 to just €47 million in 2025 (−79.4%). This made the UK fall from the EU's largest non-EU export destination to a distant first place (by residual base). Meanwhile, exports to Switzerland (+35.7% to €90 million) and Türkiye (+48.5% to €30 million) grew, and the US market held relatively steady (+10.0% to €33 million). Exports to Russia halved (−58.4%), likely reflecting sanctions and geopolitical tensions.

EU Member State trade patterns diverge sharply

Among EU reporters, Germany and Spain remained the two largest importers (€276M and €296M respectively in 2025), though both saw significant declines. Poland was the standout performer, nearly doubling its import value (+95.7% to €62M) and more than tripling its export value (+172.4% to €29M), consistent with its emergence as a key logistics and nearshoring hub in Central Europe. Romania's exports, by contrast, collapsed by 92.7% (from €129M to €9M), signalling a dramatic loss of competitiveness or restructuring of its garment sector.

3. Growing Import Dependence and Concentration Risks

The EU has become far more reliant on imports

Perhaps the most consequential structural shift is the dramatic rise in the EU's net import reliance. The net import reliance ratio surged from just 9.2% in 2015 to 63.7% in 2025 — an increase of nearly 590 percentage points. In 2015, the EU was broadly self-sufficient in this product category, with domestic production far exceeding net imports; by 2025, the bloc depended on external suppliers for nearly two-thirds of its apparent consumption.

The trade intensity ratio exceeding 100% indicates that the sum of imports and exports now exceeds domestic production — a hallmark of a sector increasingly integrated into global value chains rather than operating as a self-contained domestic industry. The extraordinary rise in export propensity (from 3.1% to 141%) reflects a situation where a large share of what remains of EU production is oriented toward export markets, while domestic consumption is increasingly met by imports.

Import concentration has remained moderate but supply chain volatility is a concern

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration stood at 1,557 in 2025 (by value), down marginally from 1,640 in 2015 (−5.1%). While this is not classified as highly concentrated, several individual supplier relationships exhibit significant volatility. The United Kingdom, as a post-Brexit supplier, showed a coefficient of variation of 0.91 — the highest among major import partners. Indonesia (0.39), Türkiye (0.33), and India (0.30) also displayed notable instability.

Specific supply shocks have punctuated the period

The data reveals detected shock events, including:

• A Chinese import price shock in 2022, with a 19.5% price shift and an abnormality index of 28.6 — likely linked to post-COVID supply chain disruptions and rising energy/fibre costs in China.
• Japanese export price shocks in 2023 (+317.6% shift) and UAE export price shocks in 2023 (+133.0% shift), suggesting possible quality mix changes, re-routing of trade, or small-base anomalies.

These events underscore that even as the EU's overall import volumes decline, the remaining trade flows are subject to significant price and supply volatility.

Conclusion

The EU market for women's man-made fibre blouses (CN 620640) has undergone a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The dominant story is one of simultaneous contraction and dependence: domestic production has been roughly halved, trade volumes have fallen across the board, yet the EU's reliance on imports has surged from negligible levels to nearly two-thirds of consumption. Geographically, the period has been marked by the reshuffling of trade flows following Brexit (with the UK vanishing from intra-EU rankings), the relative rise of Bangladesh as a sourcing destination, and persistent — though declining — dominance of China. Unit values have risen, particularly for exports, suggesting a shift toward higher-value niche production in the remaining EU manufacturing base. Looking ahead, the combination of high import dependence, moderate supplier concentration, and episodic price shocks points to a sector where supply chain resilience and diversification should be key policy and business concerns.