Market evolution: Wind turbines (CN 850231) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in wind-powered generating sets (customs code 850231) over the 2015–2025 period. The EU is a major global producer and exporter of wind energy equipment, yet the decade has seen substantial structural shifts in both trade volumes and values, sourcing origins, and the competitive positioning of individual Member States. Drawing on EU trade data, three overarching dynamics stand out: a decisive upscaling of the EU's export profile toward higher-value equipment, a rapid rise in Asian imports that is reshaping supply patterns, and a reconfiguration of intra-EU specialisation that concentrates production in fewer but more dominant Member States.

1. The Value-Volume Divergence: EU Exports Shift Toward Higher-Value Equipment

The most striking feature of the decade is the growing disconnect between the value and volume of EU wind-turbine exports. While export revenue grew by 30.4% between 2015 and 2025, tonnage shipped actually declined by 19.6%, indicating a clear trend toward higher unit values.

1.1 Rising export values mask falling physical volumes

Over the period, the EU's export value rose from €2.36 billion to €3.08 billion, while the quantity fell from 404,800 tonnes to 325,341 tonnes. The implied average price per tonne therefore climbed from €5,830 to €9,461, an increase of 62.3%. This pattern is consistent with the industry trend toward larger, more technologically advanced turbines that command substantially higher prices per unit of mass.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.2 The unit-count collapse confirms a shift to fewer, larger turbines

The supplementary unit data tells an even more dramatic story. The number of items exported plunged from 350,542 pieces in 2015 to just 36,279 in 2025 — a drop of 89.7%. Meanwhile, the average value per unit soared from €6,721 to €84,845 (+1,162.4%). This strongly suggests that EU manufacturers have moved decisively into the market for large, utility-scale turbines, while lower-value components or smaller generating sets have been offshored or displaced.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.3 Production data corroborates the premiumisation trend

EU domestic production (measured by production volumes) shows a parallel pattern. The number of items produced fell from 57,837 to 15,478 (−73.2%), while the production value rose from €5.89 billion to €10.44 billion (+77.4%). The EU is clearly producing far fewer but significantly more expensive generating sets, consistent with the global race toward ever-larger offshore and onshore turbine platforms.

Source: Production volumes

2. The Asian Import Surge: China and India Reshape EU Sourcing

While the EU remains a net exporter of wind-powered generating sets, imports have grown dramatically in value — from €91.5 million in 2015 to €707.6 million in 2025, a rise of 673.5%. This increase has been driven overwhelmingly by China and, more recently, India.

2.1 China dominates EU import growth

China's share of EU imports rose from €75.3 million to €421.8 million (+460.4%), making it by far the largest extra-EU supplier by value. At the same time, the average import price from China climbed from €186/tonne to €6,387/tonne across all sources, indicating that the imports are no longer limited to low-value components but increasingly include higher-value sub-assemblies or complete systems.

Source: Top partners — imports

2.2 India's emergence signals a diversifying supply chain

India's import value to the EU surged from just €2.6 million in 2015 to €157.3 million in 2025 — a staggering increase of 6,050.9%. India's peak import year reached €251.1 million, suggesting that Indian manufacturers are capturing growing market share in EU-bound wind equipment. This likely reflects both India's own scale-up in wind turbine manufacturing and EU efforts to diversify supply sources beyond China.

2.3 EU import reliance remains modest but is evolving in character

Despite the surge in imports, the EU's net import reliance remained negative throughout the period (first: −30.0%; last: −27.7%), confirming that the EU continues to export far more value than it imports. However, the import side has grown so rapidly that the surplus has barely widened in absolute terms (from €2.27 billion to €2.37 billion, +4.5%), even as export values rose by 30.4%. The balance has been partially eroded by the import surge.

Source: Net import reliance

2.4 Import concentration has eased, but supplier volatility remains high

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 6,847 to 5,472 (−20.1%), indicating that the EU's import base has broadened somewhat. However, the coefficient of variation for key suppliers remains elevated: Türkiye (CV 3.03), Canada (CV 2.94), Hong Kong (CV 2.19), and Taiwan (CV 1.63) all show highly volatile import flows, suggesting that sourcing from these partners is erratic and potentially unreliable.

Source: Volatility — imports

3. Consolidation and Specialisation: Germany and Denmark Strengthen Their Grip

The EU's wind-turbine export landscape has become more concentrated over the decade, with Germany and Denmark consolidating their positions as the dominant exporters, while several formerly significant exporters have retreated sharply.

3.1 Germany and Denmark dominate EU exports

Germany's exports rose from €1.06 billion to €1.61 billion (+51.2%), and Denmark's from €535.2 million to €788.4 million (+47.3%). Together, these two countries accounted for the vast majority of EU export value in 2025. France emerged as a major new exporter, growing from just €2.2 million to €628.6 million (+28,996.1%), reflecting the rapid expansion of its offshore wind ambitions and domestic turbine manufacturing capacity.

Source: Top reporters — exports

3.2 Spain's collapse and France's rise redefine intra-EU competition

Perhaps the most dramatic shift is Spain's fall from a major exporter (€632.5 million in 2015) to a marginal one (€11.0 million in 2025, −98.3%). Spain was the third-largest EU exporter in 2015 but has virtually exited the extra-EU export market. By contrast, France went from near-zero exports to becoming the third-largest EU exporter, likely driven by investments in domestic turbine manufacturing (e.g., Siemens Gamesa, Vestas, and Nordex facilities in France) and the country's ambitious offshore wind programme.

3.3 Specialisation data confirms Denmark as the EU's wind-turbine powerhouse

Denmark's Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.93 and RCA of 27.38 in 2025 are extraordinary figures, reflecting a production share of 47.2% of EU wind-turbine output on only 1.7% of total EU exports across all products. Germany (RSCA 0.20, RCA 1.50) and Spain (RSCA 0.18, RCA 1.43) also show positive specialisation, though far more modest. By contrast, large economies such as Italy (RSCA −0.99), Austria (RSCA −1.00), and Sweden (RSCA −1.00) show virtually no specialisation in this product.

Source: Specialisation

3.4 Export destination shifts reflect geopolitical and market realignment

The UK remained the EU's largest single export market (€963.1 million in 2025, +70.7%), followed by the US (€752.8 million, +150.1%). Exports to Taiwan surged from €10.5 million to €355.6 million (+3,286.7%), reflecting Taiwan's emerging offshore wind programme. Meanwhile, exports to Canada collapsed from €249.6 million to €27.5 million (−89.0%), and exports to Russia stagnated at negligible levels. The export concentration HHI nearly doubled from 1,236 to 2,427 (+96.4%), indicating that exports have become more concentrated among fewer destination markets.

Source: Top partners — exports

3.5 On the import side, Denmark, Italy, and France have become the largest EU buyers

Among EU Member States, the import landscape has also shifted. Denmark went from €343,751 in imports to €111.5 million, Italy from €13.3 million to €144.4 million, and France from €3.8 million to €106.9 million. These countries are now the largest EU importers of wind-powered generating sets, likely sourcing components or sub-assemblies from Asian suppliers to support their expanding domestic wind-energy sectors.

Source: Top reporters — imports

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in wind-powered generating sets has undergone a profound structural transformation. The EU remains a strong net exporter, but its export profile has shifted decisively toward fewer, larger, and far more expensive turbines — a premiumisation trend confirmed by the divergence between falling physical volumes and rising values on both the production and export sides. Simultaneously, imports have surged more than sevenfold in value, driven overwhelmingly by China and increasingly by India, reshaping the EU's supply chain dependencies. Within the EU, Germany and Denmark have consolidated their dominance, France has emerged as a major new player, and Spain has all but exited the export market. The concentration of both imports and exports has increased, raising questions about supply-chain resilience and market dependency. As the EU pursues its ambitious renewable energy targets, these trends point to an industry that is technologically advancing rapidly but also becoming more exposed to geopolitical and sourcing risks.