Market evolution: Wicker and basketware (CN 4602) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in products classified under Combined Nomenclature heading 4602, which covers basketwork, wickerwork, and related articles made from plaiting materials (including bamboo, rattan, and other vegetable or non-vegetable fibres), as well as articles of loofah. The product category excludes wallcoverings, twine, rope, footwear, headgear, vehicle components, and furniture or lighting fixtures classified elsewhere.

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for CN 4602 has been shaped by three dominant trends: an extraordinary surge in the value of EU exports — far outpacing the modest growth in traded volumes — a gradual geographic diversification of the EU's import supply base away from a heavy Chinese concentration, and a sustained premiumisation of traded goods. The EU remains overwhelmingly import-dependent, with a net import reliance of approximately 89% throughout the period. Yet behind this apparent stability lie significant structural shifts in partner geography, price dynamics, and member-state specialisation.

1. A widening value gap: the paradox of soaring export prices amid a persistent deficit

The most striking feature of the EU's CN 4602 trade over the past decade is the divergence between the evolution of exports and imports in value terms. While the EU's trade deficit has remained broadly stable, the underlying composition has shifted markedly.

1.1 The trade deficit held firm despite a fivefold rise in export value

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 4602 products grew from €30.1 million to €155.5 million — an increase of 416.8%. Over the same period, imports rose more moderately, from €312.1 million to €446.7 million (+43.1%). Despite this, the trade deficit widened only slightly, moving from −€282.0 million in 2015 to −€291.1 million in 2025 (a change of −3.2%).

The near-unchanged trade deficit masks a fundamental shift: the EU has been repositioning itself as a higher-value exporter while remaining just as dependent on external supply for the bulk of its consumption.

1.2 Export volumes barely moved while prices quintupled

The value explosion on the export side was almost entirely a price phenomenon. EU export volumes rose by just 1.7%, from 6,750 tonnes to 6,861 tonnes. Meanwhile, average export prices surged from €4,459/t to €22,651/t — a 408.0% increase. Import prices also rose, but far more modestly, from €4,326/t to €5,283/t (+22.1%).

This divergence implies that the EU is increasingly exporting different (and more expensive) goods than it imports — potentially artisanal, design-led, or finished products — while continuing to rely on Asia for volume supply of more commodity-grade basketware. The export propensity surged from 65.0% to 317.5%, confirming that EU production is increasingly oriented towards export markets.

1.3 EU domestic production remained essentially flat

Despite the dramatic shift in trade values, EU production of CN 4602 goods remained roughly stable at around 20 million kilograms (approximately 20,000 tonnes). Production value edged up from €40.3 million to €48.0 million (+19.1%). This suggests that the EU's domestic basketware industry has not expanded its physical output; instead, the surge in export value likely reflects a compositional shift towards higher-value product lines, re-export activities, or the inclusion of design and finishing processes that add significant value per unit of weight.

2. Geographic diversification: new Asian and African suppliers challenge Chinese dominance

The second major dynamic concerns the geographic restructuring of the EU's import supply base. While China has remained the single largest supplier throughout the period, its relative dominance has eroded as several emerging economies — particularly in South and Southeast Asia and in East Africa — have rapidly expanded their share of the EU market.

2.1 China remains the largest supplier but has lost market share

China's imports by the EU grew modestly from €202.3 million in 2015 to €214.0 million in 2025 (+5.8%). However, this figure peaked at €331.0 million in 2022 before declining sharply. The import concentration index (HHI) fell from 4,591 in 2015 to 2,970 in 2025 (−35.3%), reflecting a meaningful reduction in the EU's supply-side concentration. China's share of EU imports, once dominant, is being diluted by rising competitors.

2.2 Viet Nam and Indonesia consolidated as major regional suppliers

Viet Nam saw import growth of 80.9%, rising from €55.0 million to €99.4 million, establishing itself as the EU's second-largest supplier. Indonesia grew more moderately, from €26.8 million to €38.4 million (+43.2%). Together, these two Southeast Asian nations supplied €137.8 million to the EU in 2025 — nearly a third of all CN 4602 imports — reflecting the broader trend of supply chain diversification away from China across Asian manufacturing hubs.

2.3 Bangladesh and Madagascar emerged as fast-growing suppliers

Two of the most dramatic growth stories occurred in Bangladesh (+588.5%, from €2.8 million to €19.1 million) and Madagascar (+654.5%, from €4.6 million to €34.4 million). These rapid expansions suggest that lower-cost producers in South Asia and East Africa are successfully penetrating the EU market, likely benefiting from preferential trade arrangements (such as the EU's Everything But Arms initiative for least-developed countries) and competitive labour costs in artisanal manufacturing.

2.4 EU exports diversified towards the US and the UK, with southern member states driving growth

On the export side, the most dramatic growth occurred in exports to the United States, which surged from €889,000 to €36.5 million (+4,005.9%). Exports to the United Kingdom also rose significantly, from €8.3 million to €20.3 million (+143.0%), partly reflecting the post-Brexit reconfiguration of EU-UK trade in goods that were previously traded within the single market.

Within the EU, Italy emerged as the largest exporting member state, growing from €1.4 million to €48.8 million (+3,426.4%). France and Spain also saw explosive growth (+1,319.3% and +1,354.8% respectively). The dominance of southern European member states in the export surge aligns with the region's traditional strength in artisanal and design-oriented craft products.

3. Premiumisation and shifting product composition: price shocks, segment dynamics, and market structure

The third major finding relates to the product-level composition of trade and the increasing role of higher-value subcategories, alongside notable price volatility events that shaped year-to-year dynamics.

3.1 Vegetable plaiting materials dominate imports; bamboo and non-vegetable segments are growing

The product segment breakdown reveals that CN 460219 (articles from vegetable plaiting materials other than bamboo and rattan) remains the dominant import category by volume, at 44,516 tonnes in 2025. However, CN 460211 (bamboo) showed the strongest growth in import volumes, rising from 8,239 tonnes to 11,275 tonnes (+36.8%). CN 460290 (non-vegetable materials) also grew meaningfully, from 12,892 tonnes to 18,792 tonnes (+45.8%).

On the export side, the most notable shift was in CN 460212 (rattan), where export values surged from €3.1 million to €25.4 million (+711.4%), and in CN 460211 (bamboo), which peaked at €11.4 million in 2024 before declining. These movements suggest that EU producers are increasingly exporting niche, higher-value rattan and bamboo products — likely design furniture components or decorative items — to premium markets.

3.2 Import prices spiked in 2021–2022, then corrected

Across all subcategories, import prices rose sharply between 2019 and 2022, before partially retreating. For instance, average import prices for CN 460219 (other vegetable) climbed from €4,638/t in 2019 to a peak of €6,461/t in 2022, before falling back to €5,506/t in 2025. This pattern is consistent with the global supply chain disruptions, container shipping cost inflation, and raw material price pressures that affected trade broadly during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Export prices showed a more persistent upward trajectory. For CN 460219, export unit values rose from €3,830/t in 2015 to €24,230/t in 2025, suggesting a long-term structural shift rather than a temporary shock. The CN 460212 (rattan) export price reached €41,702/t in 2025, indicating that EU-exported rattan articles are positioned at a very high price point — likely artisanal or designer products.

3.3 Isolated supply shocks affected specific trading partners

The shock detection analysis identified several notable events:

• Philippines (exports, 2020): A price shock with a shift of +999.1% and an abnormality score of 2,694.8 — likely reflecting a very small-volume trade event producing extreme statistical outliers.
• New Zealand (exports, 2022): A price shock of +128.9%, possibly linked to pandemic-era supply constraints or a shift to higher-value product mix.
• Ukraine (imports, 2022): A price shock of +79.0%, occurring at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which disrupted European trade routes and raw material availability from the region.

These shocks, while locally significant, had limited impact on the overall EU market given the small trade shares involved (each around 0.1% of total value).

3.4 Market concentration declined on both sides of the trade balance

The import concentration index (HHI) fell from 4,591 to 2,970 (−35.3%) by value, confirming the diversification trend away from China-centric supply. Export concentration also declined, from 1,744 to 1,116 (−36.0%), as more EU member states entered the export market. Among specialised exporters, Lithuania (RSCA 0.408), Denmark (0.394), and Poland (0.324) showed the highest relative comparative advantage, while the large absolute exporters (Italy, France, Spain) demonstrated massive absolute growth from low starting bases.

3.5 Germany's import leadership is waning while France and Spain gain ground

Among EU importing member states, Germany remained the largest importer at €78.8 million in 2025, but this represented a 10.1% decline from 2015. France nearly doubled its imports (+92.3% to €73.6 million), and Spain more than doubled (+111.3% to €57.5 million). This shift suggests that southern European markets are becoming increasingly important demand centres for basketwork products, potentially linked to cultural preferences, tourism-related consumption, and proximity to Mediterranean and African supplier regions.

Conclusion

The EU market for wicker and basketware (CN 4602) between 2015 and 2025 reveals a story of structural transformation beneath an apparently stable surface. The trade deficit remained virtually unchanged at around €290 million, and net import reliance held steady near 89%, but the underlying dynamics shifted profoundly.

The most remarkable development has been the fivefold increase in EU export value without a corresponding rise in physical volumes, indicating a decisive move up the value chain. Italian, French, and Spanish exporters have led this premiumisation trend, shipping high-unit-value products — likely artisanal or design-oriented articles — to the United States, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. The average export price of €22,651/t in 2025, compared to €5,283/t for imports, underscores the growing differentiation between what the EU buys and what it sells.

On the import side, the geographic diversification away from China — with Viet Nam, Bangladesh, Madagascar, and Indonesia all gaining share — has reduced supply concentration and potentially improved the EU's resilience to single-source disruptions. This trend accelerated after the pandemic-era supply chain shocks of 2020–2022, which temporarily inflated import prices across all subcategories.

Looking forward, the continued growth of low-cost suppliers in South Asia and East Africa, combined with the EU's strengthening position in high-value export niches, suggests a market that is becoming more polarised: bulk commodity basketware increasingly sourced from emerging economies, and premium products increasingly produced and exported by EU member states with artisanal traditions. The key vulnerability remains the EU's high import dependence, which, while diversified in source, leaves the market exposed to logistics disruptions and currency fluctuations affecting the major Asian and African supply corridors.