Market evolution: Vacuum pumps (CN 841410) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in vacuum pumps (Combined Nomenclature code 841410) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis covers imports from and exports to non-EU countries, drawing on trade value, volume, pricing, partner concentration, and product-segment data. Throughout the period, the EU has maintained a robust trade surplus in this product category, with export values consistently exceeding imports by a wide margin. However, beneath this aggregate picture, the period has witnessed significant structural shifts: a pronounced upward movement in export unit values, a reorientation of trade partners, divergent trajectories across EU Member States, and notable disruptions linked to the semiconductor supply chain and geopolitical events. The following sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

1. A Rising Premium: The EU's Trade Surplus Grows on Price, Not Volume

The EU remains a strong net exporter, but the nature of its competitive advantage has shifted

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade balance in vacuum pumps widened from approximately €710 million in 2015 to €801 million in 2025, a 12.9% increase. The net import reliance metric deepened from −37.8% to −92.9%, confirming the EU's position as a major net exporter. However, the composition of this surplus reveals an important structural change: the EU has increasingly competed on price rather than volume.

Source: Trade Overview

EU exports have moved up the value chain while import growth has been volume-driven

The divergence between export and import price trajectories is striking. EU export unit values rose by 36.1% over the decade, reaching €44,413 per tonne in 2025—nearly double the import unit price of €25,182/t. This premium widened considerably: in 2015, the export-to-import price ratio stood at 1.41; by 2025, it had climbed to 1.76. This suggests that the EU has increasingly specialised in higher-value, more technologically advanced vacuum pump segments, while imports have grown primarily in lower-cost product categories.

The supplementary unit data (number of items) tells a complementary story. EU export item counts fell from 8.24 million pieces in 2015 to 7.41 million in 2025 (−10.0%), while the supplementary unit price surged from €119.5 to €168.0 per piece (+40.5%). By contrast, import item counts soared from 3.13 million to 7.80 million (+149.0%), while the per-piece price dropped from €87.9 to €56.9 (−35.2%). This pattern is consistent with a growing influx of lower-priced vacuum pumps—particularly from Asia—alongside a consolidation of EU exports into fewer but more expensive units.

EU domestic production has expanded dramatically in volume and value

Production data from the EU concentration and specialisation dashboard reveals a remarkable expansion. EU production (in items) grew from approximately 1.5 million pieces in 2015 to 14.8 million in 2025—an 883% increase. Production value rose from €837 million to €1,829 million (+119%). This growth in domestic manufacturing capacity underpins the EU's continued export strength, even as import competition intensifies.

2. Geographical Rebalancing: Partners, Concentration, and Member-State Divergence

China has emerged as the EU's fastest-growing import source, while the US remains the top export destination

The partner-level data reveals a significant geographical reorientation of EU trade flows over the period.

Imports by top partner (value in € millions):

Exports by top partner (value in € millions):

Source: Partners dashboard

China's import growth is the most dramatic: nearly quadrupling over the decade. This likely reflects the rapid expansion of China's domestic vacuum pump manufacturing sector, which has scaled up production of mid-range industrial pumps and gained market share in the EU. Meanwhile, the EU's export growth has been strongest towards emerging markets—India (+79.7%) and Türkiye (+93.8%)—suggesting that industrialisation and semiconductor ecosystem development in these economies are creating new demand for European-made pumps.

Import concentration has risen, while export markets have become slightly more diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,344 to 1,605 (+19.4%), indicating growing concentration. This is partly driven by China's surging share. For imports by volume, the increase was even steeper: from 1,965 to 3,390 (+72.6%). By contrast, export concentration by value edged down from 1,134 to 1,074 (−5.3%), suggesting a modest broadening of the EU's export base across partners.

Germany anchors EU production and exports, but Belgium has seen explosive growth

The reporter-level breakdown reveals highly uneven performance across EU Member States:

Source: Reporters dashboard

The most remarkable shift is Belgium, whose exports surged from €19 million to over €227 million—a twelvefold increase. Belgium also saw a steep rise in imports (+266.7%), suggesting it has become a major re-export hub. Conversely, Czechia experienced a dramatic collapse in exports (−79.2%), falling from €117 million to €24 million. This may reflect the relocation of production capacity, changes in intra-EU reporting, or the exit of key manufacturers from the Czech market.

In terms of specialisation, Czechia still holds the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA = 0.507) in 2025, followed by Germany (0.302) and Belgium (0.222). However, Czechia's RSCA figure may mask the absolute decline in its export volumes.

3. Semiconductor Disruption, Segment Volatility, and Geopolitical Shocks

The semiconductor pump sub-segment has been highly volatile, reflecting global chip supply chain turbulence

The product segment breakdown reveals that CN 841410 encompasses four sub-categories with very different dynamics. The most striking is 84141015—vacuum pumps for semiconductor or flat panel display manufacturing—which was only introduced in 2018 and has since experienced extreme volatility.

Import values for semiconductor pumps (CN 84141015, € millions):

Imports of this sub-category surged in 2022–2023, peaking at nearly €90 million—coinciding with the global semiconductor capacity expansion driven by the EU Chips Act, US CHIPS Act, and major fab investments. By 2025, import values had receded to €34.8 million, possibly reflecting the maturation of new capacity and a partial normalisation of supply chains. The unit prices for this segment were exceptionally volatile: import prices swung from €85,062/t in 2018 to €6,213/t in 2020, then to €75,239/t in 2022, underscoring the heterogeneous nature of products within this category.

The two dominant sub-categories—general-purpose and rotary/Roots pumps—follow steadier but divergent paths

The two largest segments by volume are:

• CN 84141089 (other vacuum pumps): Import quantity grew from 7,086 t (2015) to 11,682 t (2025) (+64.8%), while import value rose from €167M to €299M (+78.4%). This is the largest import category and has driven much of the overall import growth.
• CN 84141025 (rotary piston, sliding vane, molecular drag, and Roots pumps): Import quantity grew from 3,226 t to 5,041 t (+56.3%), with value rising from €66M to €98M (+49.0%).

On the export side, CN 84141025 remains the EU's strongest segment by value, with exports reaching €618 million in 2025. CN 84141089 exports were €590 million. Notably, CN 84141089 export volumes declined from 15,685 t to 11,697 t (−25.4%), while values remained relatively stable—again indicating a shift towards higher-value products.

A UK import price shock and the near-total collapse of EU exports to Russia highlight geopolitical volatility

The volatility analysis identifies two notable shock events:

1. UK import price shock (2021): EU imports from the United Kingdom experienced an abnormal price spike in 2021, with a +216.3% shift and an abnormality score of 3.9. This likely reflects the post-Brexit adjustment period, during which customs reclassification, new trade barriers, and supply chain disruptions may have temporarily inflated reported values.

2. Russian export supply shock (2025): EU exports to the Russian Federation collapsed by −98.1% in value by 2025 (abnormality score 3.0). While Russia was never a dominant partner (value share ~2.2%), this near-total cessation is consistent with the cumulative effect of EU sanctions and export restrictions imposed following 2022.

Among the top partners, Mexico showed the highest import volatility (CV = 0.74) and India the highest among major export destinations (CV = 0.64). The United Kingdom showed very low export volatility (CV = 0.05), confirming its role as a stable, high-volume destination for EU vacuum pumps.

Conclusion

The EU vacuum pump market (CN 841410) over 2015–2025 has been shaped by three overarching dynamics. First, the EU has consolidated its position as a major net exporter by moving up the value chain: export volumes have plateaued or declined slightly, but unit values have risen sharply, yielding a growing trade surplus. Second, the geographical landscape of trade has shifted significantly. China has become a dominant import source (quadrupling its share), while emerging markets like India and Türkiye have become increasingly important export destinations. Within the EU, Belgium has emerged as a major trade hub, while Czechia's role has diminished dramatically. Third, the semiconductor supply chain cycle has introduced significant volatility into a sub-segment that barely existed before 2018, with import surges in 2022–2023 followed by a correction. Geopolitical shocks—including Brexit and Russia sanctions—have added further layers of disruption. Looking ahead, the EU's ability to maintain its premium positioning will depend on continued investment in high-end manufacturing, resilience in semiconductor-related segments, and the capacity to navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical trade environment.