Market evolution: Tyre cord fabric (CN 5902) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Tyre cord fabric (CN 5902) is a critical intermediate input for the tyre manufacturing industry, encompassing high-tenacity yarns of nylon/polyamide, polyester, and viscose rayon used as reinforcing structures in tyres. This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in this product over the 2015–2025 period, drawing on official trade statistics.

The EU is structurally a net importer of tyre cord fabric, a deficit that widened significantly over the decade. While the total value of both imports and exports increased, the underlying dynamics diverged: import volumes grew steadily while export volumes contracted, and export prices rose sharply—suggesting a shift in the EU's positioning from volume-driven competitiveness toward higher-value niche segments. The period also witnessed a dramatic reorientation of supply sources, the emergence of significant price shocks in 2022, and a rising import dependency that raises questions about strategic vulnerability.

1. Structural shifts in import sourcing: from East Asia to Southeast Asia

1.1. Viet Nam and China have overtaken Korea as the EU's primary suppliers

The most striking transformation in EU imports over the decade has been the geographic reorientation of supply. South Korea, which was the EU's largest import partner in 2015 with €72.2 million, saw its share collapse to just €18.8 million by 2025—a decline of 74.0%. Over the same period, Viet Nam surged from €32.5 million to €100.0 million (+207.8%) and China rose from €31.8 million to €96.7 million (+204.3%).

Trade dashboard – by country, partners

1.2. Import concentration has tightened, reflecting growing reliance on fewer Asian sources

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,315 in 2015 to 2,749 in 2025 (+18.7%). By volume, the increase was even steeper: the HHI climbed from 2,342 to 3,451 (+47.4%). These levels indicate a moderately concentrated market that has become more dependent on a shrinking circle of suppliers. The combined share of Viet Nam and China alone now represents roughly two-thirds of EU imports by value, creating a dual-source dependency on East and Southeast Asia.

Trade dashboard – concentration

1.3. Türkiye remains a stable middle-tier supplier amid declining Asian competitors

While Korea and India saw dramatic declines, Türkiye maintained a relatively stable import position, declining only 13.6% from €64.5 million to €55.7 million. This resilience is likely explained by Türkiye's established textile industrial base, geographic proximity to the EU, and potential customs union advantages. Türkiye's import volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.18) was among the lowest of the EU's major partners, suggesting a dependable supply relationship.

Trade dashboard – volatility

2. Rising import dependency and diverging price dynamics

2.1. The EU's net import reliance has quadrupled over the decade

Net import reliance—measured as the share of imports relative to apparent consumption—rose from 6.9% in 2015 to 30.3% in 2025, an increase of 339.8%. This metric peaked at 35.9% before settling at its current level. The sharp rise signals a structural shift: the EU now consumes substantially more tyre cord fabric than it produces domestically, and the gap is being filled by imports.

Trade dashboard – net import reliance

2.2. Domestic production has grown in volume but declined in value

EU production of tyre cord fabric increased from 111.4 million m² in 2015 to 167.5 million m² in 2025 (+50.4%), yet its value fell from €495.2 million to €410.1 million (−17.2%). This divergence—rising physical output combined with declining value—implies either a shift toward lower-value product segments, deflationary pricing pressure from Asian competition, or both. It also means that despite producing more square metres, EU manufacturers are generating less revenue per unit.

Trade dashboard – production volumes

2.3. Import prices have been nearly flat while export prices have nearly doubled

The average import price across all tyre cord fabric subcategories remained almost unchanged over the decade, moving from €3,201/t in 2015 to €3,208/t in 2025 (+0.2%). By contrast, the average export price soared from €3,550/t to €6,853/t (+93.1%). This striking divergence suggests that the EU's export basket has shifted toward higher-value products or that EU producers have successfully passed through cost increases in export markets. Meanwhile, the flat import price—despite global inflationary pressures—indicates intense price competition among Asian suppliers.

Trade dashboard – overview

2.4. Trade intensity and export propensity have both roughly doubled

Trade intensity (exports plus imports as a share of production value) rose from 31.3% to 60.4% (+93.3%), while export propensity (exports as a share of production) climbed from 15.5% to 30.9% (+99.6%). These indicators confirm that the EU's tyre cord fabric sector has become significantly more integrated into global trade flows, with exports now accounting for nearly a third of domestic output.

Trade dashboard – trade intensity | Export propensity

3. Diversification of export markets and the 2022 price shock

3.1. EU exports have shifted away from traditional partners toward emerging markets

The EU's export landscape was reconfigured over the decade. The United Kingdom, the largest export destination in 2015 (€38.7 million), saw its share decline to €18.4 million (−52.4%), a loss likely compounded by Brexit-related trade frictions. Russia, formerly the second-largest market (€19.6 million), collapsed to just €1.0 million (−94.7%) following sanctions.

In their place, a set of emerging markets gained prominence:

Trade dashboard – by country, partners

3.2. Export concentration has dropped sharply, reflecting a more diversified customer base

The HHI for exports by value fell from 2,520 to 1,253 (−50.3%), and by volume from 2,125 to 934 (−56.1%). These are substantial reductions, moving the EU's export market from a moderately concentrated structure toward a well-diversified one. The loss of the dominant UK and Russian markets was effectively compensated by a broader portfolio of mid-sized buyers across Latin America, the Balkans, and North America.

Trade dashboard – concentration

3.3. The 2022 period stands out as a major price shock year for exports

The shock detection analysis highlights 2022 as a year of abnormal price movements across multiple trade flows. Three events stand out:

The 2022 export price spikes to the United States (+47.4%) and Brazil (+35.8%) likely reflect the combined effects of post-COVID supply chain disruptions, energy cost surges following the 2022 energy crisis in Europe, and possibly shifts toward higher-specification products in these destinations. The Korean import price shock (+33.8%) may reflect the same upstream cost pressures feeding into import prices.

Trade dashboard – supply shocks

3.4. Poland has emerged as the EU's leading exporter of tyre cord fabric

Among EU Member States, the most dramatic shift in export performance has occurred in Poland. Polish exports grew from €5.6 million in 2015 to €41.3 million in 2025 (+637.8%), making Poland the EU's largest exporter of tyre cord fabric by value—surpassing Italy (€23.3 million) and Germany (€18.2 million). Romania also emerged strongly, growing from negligible levels (€0.04 million) to €9.3 million. Meanwhile, Czechia's exports declined from €14.4 million to €7.4 million (−48.7%). These shifts suggest a geographic rebalancing of EU production capacity toward Central and Eastern Europe.

Trade dashboard – by country, reporters

Conclusion

The EU tyre cord fabric market has undergone substantial structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. On the import side, supply has shifted decisively toward Viet Nam and China, which have displaced Korea as dominant sources—a trend that has tightened import concentration and raised the EU's net import reliance from under 7% to over 30%. On the export side, the loss of the UK and Russian markets was more than offset by aggressive diversification into Brazil, Serbia, the United States, and Türkiye, yielding a much less concentrated export base. The EU's export price nearly doubled while import prices remained flat, suggesting a progressive move up the value chain in outward trade. Within the EU, Poland has emerged as the dominant exporting Member State, reflecting a broader eastward shift of production capacity. The 2022 energy crisis and supply chain disruptions left a clear imprint as a year of abnormal price shocks. Looking forward, the combination of rising import dependency on a narrow set of Asian suppliers and declining domestic production values warrants attention from a supply-chain resilience perspective.