Market evolution: Tomato sauces (CN 210320) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of tomato ketchup and other tomato sauces (customs code 210320) within the European Union for the period 2015 to 2025. The EU has consistently maintained a significant trade surplus in this product category, with its role as a major global exporter strengthening markedly over the decade. The analysis is based exclusively on the provided trade data, examining trends in value, volume, partner relationships, and market structure.

Surging exports and a widening trade surplus

The EU's external trade in tomato sauces has been characterized by robust growth in exports, outpacing the growth in imports and leading to a substantial expansion of the trade surplus.

Export value growth has significantly outpaced volume and import growth

The total value of EU exports of tomato sauces to non-EU countries rose from 297 million EUR in 2015 to 577 million EUR in 2025, an increase of 94.4%. During the same period, export volume grew by a more moderate 22.7%, from 257,455 tonnes to 315,785 tonnes. This divergence indicates that the rise in export value was driven significantly by increasing unit prices, which grew by 58.5%. In contrast, import values increased by 45.4% (from €51 million to €74 million), and import volumes grew by 21.1% (General Overview).

The EU trade balance has more than doubled

As a direct result of the stronger export performance, the EU's trade surplus in tomato sauces expanded dramatically. The surplus grew from 246 million EUR in 2015 to over 503 million EUR in 2025, an increase of 104.5%. This trend underscores the EU's strengthening position as a net exporter in this market, a position reinforced by a negative net import reliance that deepened from -10.3% to -26.3% over the period (General Overview).

Shifting dynamics in partner countries and intra-EU production

The geographic landscape of EU trade in tomato sauces has evolved, with certain non-EU partners gaining prominence in imports while intra-EU production has become more concentrated in southern member states.

The UK remains the dominant partner, but new export destinations have emerged strongly

The United Kingdom was consistently the EU's largest export and import partner. In 2025, it accounted for 247 million EUR of exports (first: €157m) and 33 million EUR of imports. Beyond the UK, the most striking growth in export value was recorded to Australia (+425.4% to €39m) and the United States (+516.6% to €39m) between 2015 and 2025. For imports, significant growth was seen from Bosnia and Herzegovina (+873.4% to €10m) and Egypt (+4,852.7% to €1.9m), suggesting a diversification of supply sources (General Overview).

Intra-EU production and export leadership is concentrated in Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands

In 2025, Italy was by far the most specialized producer in the EU, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.5353 and accounting for 26.5% of EU production volume. Spain (RSCA: 0.3735, 12.7% of production) and Portugal (RSCA: 0.3280) were also highly specialized. In terms of export value from the EU to the world, the Netherlands was the leading exporter (€155m in 2025), followed by Italy (€179m) and Spain (€66m), all of which saw substantial growth over the period. The least specialized member states, such as Ireland and Finland, were characterized by low production shares and higher import reliance (Market Structure).

EU production has grown in both volume and value

EU domestic production of tomato sauces (as per Prodcom 10.84.12.30) increased from 1.10 billion kg in 2015 to 1.39 billion kg in 2025, a 26.7% rise. More notably, the production value more than doubled, growing by 102.8% from 1.27 billion EUR to 2.58 billion EUR. This substantial value increase outpaces the volume growth, pointing to higher-value production or increased domestic price levels (Market Structure).

Improved market diversification and reduced vulnerability

The EU's trade structure for tomato sauces has become less concentrated and more resilient, with reduced dependence on any single partner and increased integration of the product into the broader economy.

Trade concentration has decreased, indicating diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of concentration, fell for both imports and exports between 2015 and 2025. For import values, the HHI decreased from 3,596 to 2,622 (-27.1%). For export values, it fell from 3,126 to 2,132 (-31.8%). A declining HHI signifies that trade is spread more evenly across a wider range of partners, reducing supply and demand risks associated with over-reliance on a few countries (Market Structure).

Export propensity and trade intensity have doubled

The product's integration into the global economy, measured by trade intensity and export propensity, has strengthened considerably. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) grew from 11.3% to 23.9%, while trade intensity (exports as a share of apparent consumption) increased from 13.1% to 26.1%. This indicates that the EU has not only increased production but has also become significantly more focused on selling tomato sauces to international markets (Autonomy & Vulnerability).

A major supply shock was observed with Türkiye, but overall volatility is moderate

Analysis of price volatility reveals that trade with some partners can be unstable. For instance, exports to Türkiye showed a high coefficient of variation (1.63). A significant price shock was detected in this trade flow in 2020, with a 264.1% price increase and an abnormality score of 18.8. Another smaller shock occurred in imports from Türkiye in 2023. Despite these bilateral instances, the overall market structure, with its reduced concentration, suggests improved systemic resilience (Volatility & Shocks).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU has solidified its position as a leading global net exporter of tomato sauces, driven by strong value growth in exports. The market structure has evolved favorably, featuring a diversification of trade partners and a marked increase in export propensity. Production has expanded, with leadership concentrated in southern member states renowned for their agri-food sectors. While individual trade flows, notably with Türkiye, have exhibited volatility, the overall reduction in market concentration points to a more resilient and integrated EU trade profile for this product. The significant widening of the trade surplus highlights the EU's competitive strength in this segment of the food industry.