Market evolution: Textile sacks and bags (CN 6305) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's external trade in CN 6305 — sacks and bags of a kind used for the packing of goods, made of all types of textile materials — over the period 2015–2025. The product heading encompasses a diverse range of sub-categories, from jute sacks and cotton bags to polypropylene strip sacks and flexible intermediate bulk containers (FIBCs). The period under review witnessed a profound transformation in the EU's trade position: while imports surged by over 57 % in value and quantity, exports grew more modestly and saw their unit prices erode. The result was a dramatic widening of the trade deficit and a sharp increase in the EU's net import reliance. The following sections identify and explain the three principal dynamics shaping this market.

1. A Widening Structural Deficit: Imports Surge While Exports Stagnate

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 6305 over 2015–2025 is the ballooning trade deficit. EU imports from non-EU countries grew from €754 million in 2015 to €1,184 million in 2025 (+57.0 %), while exports rose from only €107 million to €126 million (+17.3 %). The trade deficit widened from −€647 million to −€1,059 million (−63.6 %).

1.1 Import volumes and values grew in lockstep, but at very different speeds from exports

EU import quantities rose from 289,188 t to 454,866 t (+57.3 %), virtually mirroring the value increase, which implies that the average import price remained essentially unchanged at around €2,600/t (−0.2 %). By contrast, EU export quantities grew faster (+40.7 %) than export values (+17.3 %), reflecting a significant decline in average export unit prices from €4,934/t to €4,109/t (−16.7 %). In other words, the EU sold more bags abroad but at progressively lower prices, while import prices held firm.

1.2 Net import reliance exploded, signalling a fundamental shift in the EU's production–consumption balance

The EU's net import reliance jumped from 3.1 % in 2015 to 64.2 % in 2025 — a nearly twenty-fold increase. This indicator captures the share of apparent consumption that must be satisfied by net imports (imports minus exports). The explosive growth implies that domestic EU production has not kept pace with demand, and that the EU has become structurally dependent on third-country suppliers for the majority of its textile packaging needs. Similarly, trade intensity rose from 4.7 % to 75.2 %, and export propensity from 0.9 % to 24.5 %, indicating that the EU market is now far more open and exposed to international competition than it was at the start of the period.

1.3 EU production grew strongly in value but remains insufficient to close the gap

Available production data show that EU output of CN 6305 products rose from 83,143 t (2015) to 118,881 t (2025) in volume (+43.0 %), and from €144 million to €508 million in value (+253.8 %). The value growth far outstripped the quantity growth, suggesting a shift towards higher-value-added products or significant cost inflation. Nonetheless, the production increase was dwarfed by the 57 % rise in imports, confirming that the EU's domestic base could not absorb the growing demand.

2. Import Sourcing: India's Dominance Grows and Geographical Concentration Tightens

The EU's import base for textile sacks and bags is geographically concentrated and became more so over the period. Import concentration (Herfindahl–Hirschman Index on value) rose from 2,257 to 2,894 (+28.2 %), moving from a moderately concentrated to a more concentrated market structure. On a volume basis, the increase was even steeper (+54.9 %). Two countries — India and Türkiye — accounted for the lion's share of this shift.

2.1 India cemented its position as the EU's dominant supplier

India's exports to the EU grew from €283 million in 2015 to €574 million in 2025 (+102.4 %), more than doubling. India is by far the largest single supplier, and its share of EU imports expanded significantly. This reflects India's strong competitive advantage in jute and natural-fibre sacks (CN 630510) as well as its growing capacity in polypropylene-based products (CN 630533). The top import partners table below summarises the evolution:

2.2 Türkiye consolidated its role as the EU's second-largest source

Türkiye's shipments to the EU grew from €182 million to €239 million (+31.4 %). While the growth rate was more modest than India's, Türkiye benefited from its geographical proximity to the EU, its customs union arrangement, and its established textile manufacturing base. Together, India and Türkiye supplied roughly €813 million of the EU's €1,184 million in imports in 2025, underscoring the concentration risk.

2.3 Emerging suppliers grew from low bases but did not materially alter the picture

Several smaller suppliers registered eye-catching growth rates — Viet Nam (+115.8 %), Bangladesh (+54.1 %), and Serbia (+41.2 %) — but from relatively small starting points. China, the fourth-largest supplier, saw virtually flat growth (+4.0 %), perhaps reflecting EU diversification efforts or competitive pressure from South and Southeast Asian producers. Indonesia, conversely, halved its shipments (−52.0 %). The overall effect was a tightening of concentration around the top two or three origins.

3. Export Dynamics: Price Erosion, Segment Volatility, and Geopolitical Shocks

While exports are far smaller than imports in absolute terms, they reveal their own set of dynamics. The EU's export base diversified geographically (HHI on value fell from 1,218 to 798, −34.4 %), but the product mix shifted substantially, and the overall pricing environment deteriorated.

3.1 The UK, the largest export market, contracted sharply

The United Kingdom, historically the EU's top export destination for textile sacks and bags, saw a 38.7 % decline in value (from €30 million to €18 million). This likely reflects post-Brexit trade friction and the reorientation of UK sourcing. Russia, another significant market, collapsed from €3.6 million to €0.8 million (−78.7 %), a clear consequence of EU sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.

3.2 Product composition shifted away from FIBCs towards niche segments

The product segment breakdown reveals a significant structural change in EU exports. Flexible intermediate bulk containers (CN 630532), which dominated exports at 12,426 t in 2015, fell to just 7,554 t in 2025 (−39.2 %). Meanwhile, exports of other categories grew substantially:

The growth in PE/PP sacks, jute bags, and "other materials" segments suggests that EU exporters have pivoted towards lower-volume, higher-specialisation products, likely serving niche industrial or agricultural applications.

3.3 Export unit prices diverged sharply across segments

Export pricing trends were highly heterogeneous. FIBCs (630532) saw their export price fall from €3,931/t to €5,364/t over the period but with significant mid-period volatility (reaching a trough of €2,484/t in 2020). Cotton bags (630520) commanded the highest unit prices, rising from €15,052/t to €21,616/t (+43.6 %), consistent with premium positioning. PE/PP sacks (630533), by contrast, saw their price collapse from €3,430/t to €1,598/t (−53.4 %), suggesting intense price competition or a shift towards lower-specification products.

3.4 Supply shocks were detected in several export corridors

The shock analysis flagged several abnormal price events in EU exports. The most notable was a +213.1 % price spike in exports to Tunisia in 2022 (abnormality score 13.3), likely reflecting post-COVID supply chain disruptions or sudden demand surges in North Africa. Exports to Serbia experienced a +52.3 % price shock in 2019, and Russia-bound exports saw a +116.0 % spike in 2023, potentially linked to sanctions-driven supply constraints. On the volatility side, exports to Malaysia (coefficient of variation 1.49) and Thailand (1.29) were the most unstable corridors, while Switzerland (0.07) was the most predictable.

Conclusion

The EU market for textile sacks and bags (CN 6305) underwent a fundamental rebalancing between 2015 and 2025. What was once a near self-sufficient market with only 3 % net import reliance has become a market where almost two-thirds of apparent consumption depends on imports. This transformation was driven by a 57 % surge in imports — concentrated increasingly on India and Türkiye — against a backdrop of only modest export growth and declining export prices. Within the EU, production volumes grew by 43 % but could not keep pace with demand. On the export side, the EU lost ground in its traditional FIBC segment and in its largest market (the UK), pivoting instead towards smaller, more specialised product niches. The rising import concentration (HHI up 28 %) and the explosion in net import reliance point to growing vulnerability: the EU is now significantly exposed to supply disruptions from a small number of key third-country suppliers. Monitoring this dependency and supporting competitive EU production capacity will be essential for the sector's resilience in the years ahead.