Market evolution: Textile footwear (CN 64041990) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in textile footwear (CN 64041990) — defined as footwear with outer soles of rubber or plastics and uppers of textile materials, excluding indoor footwear, sports footwear, and toy footwear — over the period 2015 to 2025. The analysis draws on trade data covering EU-27 imports from and exports to non-EU countries, measured in both value (EUR) and volume (tonnes and supplementary pair counts).

Over the decade, the EU's textile footwear market has undergone a structural transformation. Imports nearly doubled in value while exports grew almost threefold, yet the trade deficit widened. Supply chains shifted decisively toward Southeast Asia, with traditional partners like China losing relative share and newer sources — Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar — gaining ground rapidly. At the same time, EU production volumes remained relatively stable while production values surged, suggesting a move upmarket. The picture that emerges is one of a sector becoming simultaneously more globalised, more diversified, and more price-intensive.

1. A Decade of Surging Demand and Diverging Price Trajectories

The headline story of EU textile footwear trade between 2015 and 2025 is one of substantial value growth on both the import and export sides, but with fundamentally different dynamics at play. Imports grew in value terms from €2.43 billion to €4.54 billion (+86.5%), while exports rose from €691 million to €2.00 billion (+190.1%) (General Overview).

Import volumes grew much faster than export volumes, but prices told a different story

When measured by mass (tonnes), import volumes surged by 70.3%, rising from 201,737 tonnes in 2015 to 343,590 tonnes in 2025. Export volumes, by contrast, grew only 19.1%, from 21,669 tonnes to 25,801 tonnes. This indicates that the EU's appetite for imported textile footwear expanded far more rapidly than its capacity to export such products.

However, the most striking divergence appears in pricing. The EU import price per tonne rose modestly by 9.5%, from €12,053 to €13,200. Meanwhile, the EU export price per tonne skyrocketed by 143.6%, climbing from €31,876 to €77,648. This widening price gap — with EU exports now priced at nearly six times the level of imports — suggests a clear upmarket repositioning of EU-origin textile footwear, likely driven by brands, design, and quality differentiation rather than volume competition.

The trade deficit widened despite faster export growth

Despite exports growing three times faster than imports in percentage terms, the EU remained a persistent net importer throughout the period. The trade deficit expanded from -€1.74 billion in 2015 to -€2.53 billion in 2025, an increase of 45.4%. The deficit peaked at -€2.84 billion in 2022, likely reflecting post-pandemic demand recovery and supply chain disruptions that temporarily inflated import prices and volumes. The subsequent moderation may reflect both demand normalisation and early effects of EU trade policy adjustments.

Pair counts reveal a slower expansion than mass-based figures suggest

Using the supplementary unit of pairs, EU imports grew from 384 million pairs to 452 million pairs (+17.6%), while EU exports barely moved from 34.4 million pairs to 34.1 million pairs (-1.0%). The fact that pair counts grew far less than tonnage figures suggests that the average weight per pair increased over the period — potentially reflecting a shift toward heavier materials or larger shoe sizes in the import mix, or simply changes in product composition within this broad tariff line.

2. The Southeast Asian Pivot: A Restructuring of EU Supply Chains

The most consequential structural shift in the EU textile footwear market over the past decade has been the geographic reorientation of import sources away from China and toward a cluster of Southeast Asian and South Asian producers. This pivot reshaped not only the EU's supplier base but also the competitive landscape of global footwear manufacturing.

China remains the dominant supplier but has lost significant market share

China was the EU's largest source of textile footwear imports in both 2015 and 2025, accounting for €1.58 billion and €2.00 billion respectively (top partners). However, China's share of total EU imports fell markedly. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration dropped from 4,718 to 3,081 (-34.7%), indicating a meaningful diversification of supply. China's own import value fluctuated considerably, peaking at €2.62 billion before settling back to €2.00 billion — a modest +26.5% gain over the decade that pales against the aggregate import growth of 86.5%.

Vietnam emerged as the EU's fastest-growing major supplier

The standout performer was Vietnam, whose exports of textile footwear to the EU surged from €451 million to €1.47 billion — an increase of 225.1%. Vietnam's growth trajectory was remarkably consistent, suggesting sustained industrial investment and likely benefits from the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), which entered into force in August 2020. Vietnam is now firmly established as the EU's second-largest supplier and is closing the gap with China.

A cohort of smaller Asian suppliers delivered explosive growth

Beyond Vietnam, several smaller suppliers achieved dramatic growth:

Myanmar's trajectory is particularly noteworthy: from a negligible base of €5.5 million in 2015, it reached over €105 million by 2025, though its growth has been punctuated by high volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.75) (volatility data), likely reflecting political instability. Indonesia and Bangladesh similarly expanded their EU market presence substantially, benefiting from competitive labour costs and preferential trade arrangements.

The United Kingdom's share collapsed following Brexit

The UK's position as an EU import source deteriorated sharply, falling from €97 million in 2015 to just €36 million in 2025 (-62.6%). The UK import series exhibited extremely high volatility (CV of 1.94), the highest among all EU suppliers. This collapse reflects the post-Brexit trade regime: the UK is now treated as a third country, and goods moving between the EU and UK face customs formalities and, depending on rules of origin, potential tariffs. The sharp decline is consistent with a structural reclassification rather than a demand shift.

EU import concentration fell significantly, reducing single-source risk

The decline in import HHI from 4,718 to 3,081 represents a substantial reduction in supplier concentration. While the market is still relatively concentrated (HHI above 2,500 is generally considered highly concentrated), the trend is firmly toward diversification. This diversification, however, has largely occurred among developing Asian economies rather than through reshoring or nearshoring, meaning the EU's exposure to Asian supply chain risks — logistics disruptions, geopolitical tensions, regulatory divergence — has shifted in character rather than diminished.

3. The EU's Evolving Export Profile: High-Value Specialisation and Diversified Destinations

While the EU's import story is one of volume-driven growth from low-cost producers, the export narrative is fundamentally different. EU exports of textile footwear have been characterised by rapid value growth, rising unit prices, and a significant diversification of destination markets — all pointing to an industry that competes on quality, design, and branding rather than price.

Italy, France, and Germany dominated EU exports, but Poland emerged as a new force

Within the EU, Italy was the leading exporter in both 2015 and 2025, growing from €176 million to €738 million (+319.6%) (top reporters). France followed with even faster growth (+617.5%), rising from €66 million to €475 million. Germany also expanded dramatically (+490.7%).

The most remarkable performer, however, was Poland, which grew from just €8.8 million to €123.8 million — an increase of 1,310.7%. Poland's export surge reflects its growing role as a manufacturing hub for European footwear brands, combining relatively lower production costs with EU single-market access. Among the most specialised EU exporters, Poland ranks first with an RSCA of 0.189, followed by Croatia and Italy.

Export destination markets diversified markedly

The EU's export concentration fell dramatically, with the HHI declining from 2,146 to 920 (-57.1%). This was driven by the simultaneous growth of several destination markets:

The United States and China stand out as the most dynamic growth markets for EU textile footwear exports. The US grew from €41 million to €287 million, while China — ironically the EU's largest import source — became a significant export destination at €195 million. This bilateral pattern underscores the brand-driven nature of the trade: European fashion and lifestyle brands command premium prices in Asian consumer markets.

The UK remained the largest single export destination but shrank

The United Kingdom was the EU's largest export market for textile footwear in both 2015 (€299 million) and 2025 (€246 million), but its share declined by 17.9% over the period. The peak was €583 million, reached during the period before full Brexit implementation. The decline likely reflects both the UK's changed trading relationship with the EU and the broader diversification of EU export destinations. By 2025, Switzerland had overtaken the UK as the top destination by some measures.

EU production shifted toward higher value while volumes remained modest

EU domestic production grew only 16.0% in volume terms (from 32.3 million to 37.4 million pairs) but surged 295.9% in value (from €261 million to €1.03 billion). This implies that the average production value per pair roughly tripled, from approximately €8.1 to €27.6 — a clear signal that EU manufacturers have shifted toward higher-value segments, likely focusing on premium and niche products that cannot easily be replicated by mass-market Asian producers. The export propensity surged by 189.7%, confirming that an increasing share of EU production is oriented toward international markets.

Conclusion

The EU textile footwear market between 2015 and 2025 has been shaped by three interlocking dynamics: growing import dependence driven by consumer demand, a decisive geographic shift in supply chains toward Southeast Asia, and a qualitative transformation of the EU's own production and export profile.

Despite faster export growth in percentage terms, the EU's trade deficit in this category widened to €2.53 billion, and net import reliance rose from 51.7% to 59.7%. The supply base has diversified — import HHI fell 35% — but this diversification has been concentrated among developing Asian economies, leaving the EU exposed to region-specific risks. Meanwhile, EU producers have responded not by competing on volume but by moving upmarket: production values tripled while volumes grew by just 16%, and export unit prices rose by 144%.

The next phase of this market's evolution will likely be shaped by several factors: the full maturation of EU trade agreements with Vietnam and other ASEAN nations, the potential impact of EU due diligence and sustainability regulations on supply chain practices, the trajectory of Chinese domestic consumption (which could further boost EU exports to China), and the ongoing question of whether any meaningful reshoring of footwear manufacturing to Europe is economically viable beyond the premium segment.