Market evolution: Synthetic yarn (CN 5511) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of product CN 5511 – "Yarn of man-made staple fibres, put up for retail sale (excl. sewing thread)" – for the European Union with the rest of the world over the period 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a dramatic structural shift: the EU has transformed from a relatively balanced market into a heavily import-dependent one. Domestic production has contracted sharply, while imports have surged, leading to a widening trade deficit and increased reliance on a few key external suppliers.

1. The Widening EU Trade Deficit and Import Dependency

The period from 2015 to 2025 is characterised by a stark divergence in EU import and export trends, resulting in a significant increase in the trade deficit.

1.1. Imports grew while exports collapsed

EU imports of synthetic yarn increased in both value and volume over the decade. In contrast, EU exports experienced a severe contraction. The trade overview highlights this divergence:

As a result, the EU's trade deficit in this product worsened by 56%, from -55.8 million EUR in 2015 to -87.0 million EUR in 2025.

1.2. Domestic production plummeted

The decline in exports aligns with a collapse in EU domestic production. The production data shows EU production of CN 5511 fell dramatically:

• Production Quantity: From 4.67 million kg in 2015 to 983,000 kg in 2025 (-79%).
• Production Value: From 50.6 million EUR to 16.3 million EUR (-67.7%).

This near-erosion of the local manufacturing base is the primary driver of the increasing trade deficit.

1.3. Net import reliance surged

The combined effect of rising imports and collapsing production is captured by the net import reliance indicator, which measures imports as a share of apparent consumption (production + imports - exports). It increased from 27.8% in 2015 to 84.1% in 2025, indicating a profound shift toward dependency on foreign supply.

2. Shifting Supplier Landscape and Market Volatility

The source of the EU's imports has evolved, with growing concentration on a few key partners, alongside notable trade volatility.

2.1. Türkiye remains the anchor, China's role expands

The top import partners table reveals clear trends:

• Türkiye has consolidated its position as the EU's dominant supplier, consistently accounting for over half of import value.
• China more than doubled its share, becoming the second-largest supplier.
• Serbia emerged as a significant new partner, with imports growing from a negligible base.

2.2. Import concentration slightly decreased

Despite the rise of China, the overall concentration of imports (HHI) showed a modest decline. The HHI for import value fell from 4,894 in 2015 to 4,395 in 2025, moving from a "moderately concentrated" to a still concentrated market. This indicates that while supplier diversity improved slightly with the rise of Serbia and India, the market remains dominated by Türkiye.

2.3. Trade flows exhibit significant volatility

Analysis of volatility reveals that several trade relationships are highly unstable (Coefficient of Variation > 1), including imports from Kosovo, Indonesia, North Macedonia, and exports to Canada and Hong Kong. The shock events detected include a massive -94.7% drop in exports to Japan in 2024 and sharp price spikes in trade with Türkiye and Senegal, highlighting the susceptibility of these flows to disruptions.

3. Divergent Trends Across Product Segments

The aggregate figures mask distinct dynamics within the three sub-components of CN 5511, particularly in the import market.

3.1. High-synthetic content yarn (551110) drives import growth

The subproduct breakdown shows that the growth in EU imports was primarily fuelled by 551110 (yarn with ≥85% synthetic fibre). Its import quantity grew from 7,586 tonnes to 12,703 tonnes (+67%). In contrast, imports of 551120 (yarn with <85% synthetic fibre) and 551130 (artificial staple fibre yarn) remained relatively stable in volume.

3.2. EU exports collapsed across all segments

The decline in EU exports was broad-based. Export volumes for all three subproducts fell severely over the decade:

• 551110: Down from 619 to 275 tonnes.
• 551120: Down from 549 to 131 tonnes.
• 551130: Down from 247 to 65 tonnes.

Notably, a spike in exports for 551110 in 2023 (to 2,182 tonnes) appears anomalous and was not sustained, suggesting a one-off transaction or data peculiarity rather than a reversal of the downward trend.

3.3. Price differentials indicate market niches

Price trends varied significantly between segments, reflecting different product types and competitive dynamics:

• Import prices for 551120 were consistently higher (averaging ~8,800 EUR/t in 2025) than for 551110 (~6,100 EUR/t), suggesting it may command a premium or be sourced differently.
• Export prices for both 551120 and 551130 were highly volatile and reached very high levels (e.g., 551120 at 21,523 EUR/t in 2025), possibly indicating niche, high-value shipments.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for retail synthetic yarn (CN 5511) underwent a fundamental restructuring. Driven by an 80% collapse in domestic production, the EU's trade balance deteriorated significantly, with net import reliance soaring to over 84%. The market has become increasingly dependent on external suppliers, predominantly Türkiye and, to a growing extent, China. While supplier diversity improved slightly, the market remains concentrated and exhibits substantial volatility in specific trade corridors. The underlying demand shift is evident in the strong growth of imports for high-synthetic-content yarn (551110). This transformation points to a long-term decline in EU manufacturing competitiveness in this specific product category, leading to a structurally import-dependent market.