Market evolution: Synthetic fibre curtains (CN 63039290) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in synthetic fibre curtains (excluding nonwovens, knitted or crocheted, and awnings) between 2015 and 2025. Over the decade, the EU's trade patterns have undergone significant transformation. While the EU remains a net importer, its export profile has strengthened notably. The total import value grew by 25.1% to €533.5 million, and export value increased by 40.7% to €169.4 million. This performance occurred against a backdrop of volatile global supply chains, shifting partner dynamics, and a marked increase in the bloc's overall import dependency.

1. Export Renaissance and Shifting Trade Partnerships

The period saw a fundamental reshaping of the EU's trade relationships for this product, characterized by a strong export push and a diversification away from some traditional suppliers.

Export Growth Surges, Led by New Destinations

EU export performance was particularly strong, with value rising from €120.4 million to €169.4 million. The most dramatic growth was in exports to the United States, which surged by 387.2% to become the fourth-largest export market. Simultaneously, exports to Ukraine grew by 283.1%. In contrast, exports to China collapsed by 82.9%, and exports to Russia fell by 69.7%, reflecting geopolitical shifts and sanctions. The export partnership network thus shows a clear pivot towards Western and North American markets.

Import Landscape: China Dominates as Regional Partners Falter

Imports grew substantially in volume (+65.4% to 93,975 tonnes), though value growth was more moderate (+25.1%), indicating falling unit prices. China cemented its position as the dominant supplier, increasing its share to €402.3 million. Traditional partners saw mixed fortunes: imports from Türkiye declined by 12.3%, while those from Egypt grew by 200.7% to €20.0 million, signaling a shift towards North African sourcing. Conversely, imports from Taiwan plummeted by 74.3%. The EU's import partners thus became more concentrated, with China's dominance growing.

Internal EU Dynamics: A Two-Speed Market

Within the EU, the picture was uneven. For imports, Germany remained the largest market (€143.4 million), but Poland showed explosive growth (+102.5%). For exports, Germany was stable, but France (+124.5%) and, remarkably, Czechia (+2269.3%) became major exporters. This highlights the rise of Central European manufacturing hubs. The specialization data confirms this: Czechia (RCA 4.15) and Poland (RCA 3.05) are the most specialized EU producers.

2. Production Capacity and Market Concentration

Domestic EU production evolved in a complex manner, while market concentration remained a defining feature of the import side.

Production Volume Rises, Value Stagnates

EU production volume (in square metres) more than doubled, rising by 102.9% to 63.7 million m². However, production value declined by 14.0% to €1.03 billion over the period. This divergence suggests a significant increase in output of lower-value-added products or intense price competition domestically. The production trends indicate the EU industry is prioritizing volume over margin.

Import Concentration: A Persistent Vulnerability

The import market remained highly concentrated, as shown by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The HHI for import value started and ended the period at around 5,800, indicating an oligopolistic market structure. This concentration is overwhelmingly due to China's dominant share. The HHI analysis shows this high concentration persisted throughout the decade, posing a significant supply-chain risk.

Export Market: A More Fragmented and Volatile Picture

In contrast, the export market was less concentrated (HHI ~1,719), though more volatile. The volatility is evident in the export flows to partners like Russia and China. Export concentration also shifted geographically, with the growing importance of the United States. The lower and more stable HHI for exports compared to imports suggests a more diversified and competitive EU export base.

3. Rising Vulnerability and Notable Trade Shocks

The period was marked by a structural increase in the EU's trade openness for this product, alongside significant volatility in specific bilateral relationships.

A Structural Shift Towards Dependency

A critical finding is the dramatic rise in the EU's net import reliance, which surged from 3.2% to 29.7% of apparent consumption. This was driven by faster import volume growth relative to domestic production and exports. Similarly, the trade intensity of the sector increased tenfold. This indicates the EU's curtain industry has become deeply integrated into, and dependent on, global (particularly Chinese) supply chains.

Volatility Highlights Supplier and Partner Risks

Analysis of coefficient of variation (CV) reveals high volatility in trade with several partners. On the import side, trade with Bangladesh (CV 0.81), Pakistan (CV 0.77), and Tunisia (CV 1.22) was highly unstable. On the export side, flows to Saudi Arabia (CV 1.11) and Russia (CV 0.68) were erratic. This volatility underscores the risks associated with less predictable markets.

Detection of Significant Price Shocks

The data captures several notable price shocks in EU exports. The largest was to Canada in 2019 (a 38.9% price increase, abnormality score 11.4). Another significant shock was a 138.2% price spike in exports to the United Arab Emirates in 2018. A smaller but notable shock occurred in exports to Switzerland in 2022. These isolated shocks can reflect one-off contract changes, quality shifts, or logistical disruptions.

Conclusion

The EU market for synthetic fibre curtains between 2015 and 2025 evolved from a relatively balanced position to one characterized by strong export growth and significantly higher import dependency. A key narrative is the resilient expansion of EU exports, particularly to the US, and the rise of specialized Central European producers like Czechia and Poland. However, this growth occurred alongside a deepening vulnerability due to soaring net import reliance and persistent, high concentration of imports from China. The sector's trade intensity multiplied, embedding it firmly in global value chains. While this integration brought access to lower-priced imports, it also introduced greater volatility, as seen in the fluctuating trade with secondary suppliers. The data suggests an industry undergoing a structural transformation: enhancing its export competitiveness while becoming more exposed to the risks of global supply-side dependencies.