Market evolution: Stretch knit fabric (CN 600410) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in stretch knit fabric (Combined Nomenclature code 600410) over the period 2015–2025. This product category covers knitted or crocheted fabrics wider than 30 cm containing at least 5% by weight of elastomeric yarn (excluding rubber thread, pile fabrics, and laminated or coated variants). It is a key intermediate textile used extensively in sportswear, lingerie, and activewear — segments that have seen sustained growth driven by athleisure trends over the past decade.

The full product definition and scope confirm that this is a granular 6-digit code, not a bundling heading, corresponding to PRODCOM code 13.91.19.10 ("Knitted or crocheted fabrics, excluding pile fabrics").

The data reveals a market undergoing a structural transformation: while EU domestic production has contracted significantly, the Union has shifted from a trade deficit to a surplus position, with rising unit values on exports indicating a move up the value chain. Simultaneously, sourcing patterns have diversified, traditional suppliers have lost ground, and new trade corridors — notably with the Western Balkans and North Africa — have strengthened.

1. From Trade Deficit to Surplus: The EU's Shifting Competitive Position

The trade balance has swung decisively in the EU's favour

The most striking macro-level dynamic over the 2015–2025 period is the complete reversal of the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the EU ran a deficit of approximately €104 million in stretch knit fabrics; by 2025, this had turned into a surplus of €68 million. The net import reliance moved from −18.3% in 2015 to −8.5% in 2025, improving by 53.7%. This indicates the EU has become progressively less dependent on external suppliers and, in aggregate, a net exporter of this fabric category.

Export values have risen despite falling volumes, signalling a shift toward higher-value products

While the EU's export value grew by 10.4% (from €365M to €403M), the exported volume actually declined by 15.0% (from 21,579 tonnes to 18,341 tonnes). This divergence is explained by a sharp increase in export unit prices, which rose by 29.8% — from €16,927 per tonne in 2015 to €21,969 per tonne in 2025. This is the highest unit price recorded over the entire period, suggesting the EU is increasingly exporting specialised, higher-specification stretch knit fabrics rather than commodity-grade products.

By contrast, import unit prices remained broadly flat at around €5,300–5,500 per tonne throughout the period, indicating that the EU's incoming fabric is standard-grade, while outgoing shipments command a significant price premium.

Domestic production has declined even as trade performance improves

Paradoxically, EU domestic production has contracted substantially. Production volume fell from 361 million kg in 2015 to 280 million kg in 2025 (−22.4%), and production value declined from €2.77 billion to €1.99 billion (−28.0%). This suggests that the EU's stretch knit fabric industry has consolidated, shedding lower-value production capacity while retaining (and potentially expanding) its position in premium segments. The decline in imports combined with declining production implies that domestic consumption of this fabric type may have shifted — either towards recycled or alternative materials, or reflecting changes in garment sourcing patterns (i.e., more finished garments imported rather than fabric).

2. A Reconfigured Supply Map: From Traditional Partners to New Corridors

Turkey remains the dominant supplier but has lost substantial market share

Türkiye has consistently been the EU's largest import source for stretch knit fabric. However, its share has eroded considerably: imports from Türkiye fell from €211 million in 2015 to €113 million in 2025 (−46.4%). A notable price shock was detected in 2022, when Turkish import prices surged by 46.4% with an abnormality score of 9.5 — likely linked to the Turkish lira crisis and soaring energy costs that year. This shock, accounting for 54.8% of import value, may have accelerated the search for alternative suppliers.

Serbia has emerged as the most dynamic new supplier

The most dramatic shift in the import landscape is the rise of Serbia, which grew from a negligible €0.6 million in 2015 to €23.7 million in 2025 — a staggering 3,692% increase. Serbia's textile sector has benefited from proximity to EU markets, competitive labour costs, EU association and pre-accession trade preferences, and significant foreign direct investment (particularly from Italian and Turkish manufacturers). This positions Serbia as a nearshoring success story within the EU's broader supply chain diversification strategy.

Korean supply has collapsed, while Egypt has effectively disappeared

Two suppliers experienced particularly sharp declines. Korean imports fell by 62.2% from €74.5 million to €28.2 million, reflecting Korea's own industrial transformation and the shift of Korean textile manufacturers to Southeast Asia. A price shock was also detected in Korean imports in 2019 (abnormality 13.1, price shift +17.2%). Egyptian supply virtually disappeared (−99.4%), dropping from €10.7 million to just €64 thousand, indicating a complete loss of competitiveness or capacity in this source. The import concentration HHI for value fell from 3,093 to 2,549 (−17.6%), confirming that the EU's import base has become less concentrated and more diversified — a positive development from a supply security perspective.

EU exports are increasingly channelled to North Africa and the Western Balkans

On the export side, the top destinations reveal a clear geographic pattern: EU stretch knit fabrics are increasingly shipped to neighbouring low-cost manufacturing hubs for cutting and sewing into finished garments.

Sri Lanka shows the strongest growth (+71.7%), reflecting its role as a major sportswear and intimate apparel manufacturing base. The decline of Hong Kong as an export destination (−73.4%) likely reflects the broader shift of garment production from Hong Kong's trading houses to direct sourcing from manufacturing countries, as well as geopolitical factors affecting transit trade.

3. Italy's Dominance and the Geographical Concentration of EU Production

Italy is the undisputed centre of EU stretch knit fabric production

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals Italy's commanding position. With a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.70 and an RCA of 5.59, Italy is by far the most specialised EU member state in this product category. Italy accounts for 44.8% of EU production by value (€894 million of €1,994 million total) and 8.0% of total EU exports. Italy's export value grew by 33.3% over the period — from €182 million in 2015 to €242 million in 2025 — confirming the strengthening of its competitive edge.

This dominance reflects Italy's historic textile clusters (particularly in Lombardy, Veneto, and Emilia-Romagna), which have invested heavily in innovation, quality, and proximity to fashion brands — factors that are especially valued in the stretch and performance fabric segment.

A handful of smaller member states also show notable specialisation

Beyond Italy, Greece (RSCA 0.61), Slovenia (0.48), Latvia (0.44), and Austria (0.20) display positive specialisation indices. These countries have niche textile industries that focus on technical and stretch fabrics. Conversely, Sweden (RSCA −1.00), Luxembourg (−0.98), Finland (−0.97), and several other member states show virtually no specialisation, consistent with their industrial profiles.

Import demand is concentrated in Southern and Central European member states

On the import side, Italy is also the largest single importing member state (€169 million in 2025), though it recorded a decline of 19.9% from 2015. France saw the steepest decline (−74.2%, from €54 million to €14 million), while Bulgaria (+71.0%) and Poland (+46.7%) significantly increased their imports — consistent with the growth of garment manufacturing industries in these countries. This pattern mirrors the broader EU textile value chain, where fabric is produced in Western Europe, exported (or shipped intra-EU) to Central and Eastern Europe and North Africa for assembly, and finished garments are then sold throughout the EU.

Trade has become more intense and outward-oriented

The trade intensity of this product rose from 52.4% in 2015 to 83.8% in 2025, and the export propensity increased even more sharply from 40.5% to 73.2% (+80.9%). These are the highest salience indicators in the dataset, confirming that stretch knit fabrics have become an increasingly internationally traded product within the EU — a fabric where the EU is deeply embedded in global value chains, both as an importer of standard grades and an exporter of premium variants.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's stretch knit fabric market has undergone a fundamental restructuring. The Union has transitioned from a net importer running a €104 million deficit to a net exporter with a €68 million surplus, driven not by volume growth but by a decisive move toward higher-value production. Export unit prices rose by nearly 30% while volumes fell, indicating that European manufacturers — led overwhelmingly by Italy — have successfully repositioned themselves in the premium segment.

The supply side has also been reshaped. Türkiye, while still the largest supplier, has lost nearly half its share to the EU. Korea and Egypt have sharply declined. In their place, Serbia has emerged as a major nearshoring source, growing over 3,600% in a decade. Import concentration has fallen, improving supply diversification.

Several structural risks remain. EU domestic production continues to decline, which could constrain future export growth if capacity erodes too far. The heavy reliance on Italy (45% of production, 60% of exports) creates geographical concentration risk. Meanwhile, the EU's deepening integration into global textile value chains — with an export propensity now exceeding 70% — means that demand-side shocks in key garment manufacturing hubs (North Africa, South Asia) could quickly propagate back to EU fabric producers.

Overall, the data paints a picture of a European industry that has adapted to global competition by moving upmarket and leveraging its proximity to both raw material innovation and fashion demand centres — but one that will need continued investment and diversification to sustain this trajectory.