Market evolution: Stone working machines (CN 846490) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in machine tools for working stone, concrete, asbestos-cement and similar mineral substances (Customs code CN 846490) over the period 2015–2025. The EU remains a significant net exporter of this equipment, driven largely by the Italian stone-machinery cluster. However, a striking structural shift occurred over the decade: export volumes collapsed while import volumes more than doubled. Domestic production surged, but a far smaller share of it was directed to international markets. The following sections analyse these dynamics from three angles — overall trade balance, intra-EU specialisation, and partner concentration.

1. Export contraction and growing import reliance: the surplus is narrowing

The decade 2015–2025 was characterised by a sharp decline in EU export volumes, a compensating rise in export unit prices, and a rapid growth in imports — all of which halved the trade surplus.

The trade surplus shrank by 45 %

Despite still being firmly in surplus, the EU's net exporter position weakened substantially. The net import reliance ratio moved from −93 % in 2015 to −29 % in 2025, meaning the EU's export cushion against import dependency shrank by roughly two thirds.

Volumes tell a more dramatic story than values

• In tonnes, exports have fallen by nearly 70 %, while imports more than doubled, converging toward parity in physical volume.
• The EU's export unit price more than doubled (+111 %), indicating a compositional shift toward higher-value, more specialised machinery (e.g. CNC stone-cutting centres, water-jet systems).
• Conversely, the average import price fell 31 %, consistent with a growing share of standard-specification equipment sourced at lower cost from emerging suppliers.

Production surged — but a smaller share reached non-EU markets

EU production value more than doubled and unit output quadrupled, yet export propensity dropped from 56 % to 27 %. This pattern suggests that much of the additional production served intra-EU demand and domestic construction markets rather than global customers. The trade intensity ratio similarly halved, from 59 % to 29 %.

2. Italy anchors the EU's production base, but Germany and Sweden are gaining ground

Italy remains by far the EU's leading exporter and producer of stone-working machinery, yet its dominance has declined significantly. Meanwhile, Germany and Sweden strengthened their positions.

Italy lost half its exports; Germany and Sweden gained

Top EU exporting member states:

Italy's share in overall EU exports shrank dramatically. While Italian production value still amounted to roughly half of the EU total in 2025, its extra-EU export share collapsed — consistent with the country pivoting toward serving intra-EU and domestic construction demand. Germany, by contrast, nearly doubled its exports, likely benefiting from its strength in numerically controlled and automated equipment. Sweden more than doubled its relatively small base.

Specialisation remains strongly Southern European

Based on the Revealed Symmetrical Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indicator for 2025:

Italy's RCA of 6.3 means it is over six times more specialised in CN 846490 than the EU average — an exceptionally strong position. Austria, Spain, and Portugal also display clear comparative advantage. The least specialised members (Ireland, Finland, Denmark) are essentially non-producers in this product class.

Imports into the EU grew fastest in Spain, Belgium, and Italy

Top EU importing member states:

Notably, Italy — itself the EU's production powerhouse — tripled its imports of this product category. This likely reflects a sourcing strategy that combines in-house high-end production with procurement of standard-specification machines from lower-cost origins. Spain and Belgium also sharply increased their import appetites.

3. China's rising import share concentrates the EU's sourcing risk

On the import side, China's share expanded dramatically while traditional high-specification suppliers lost ground, raising concentration to historically high levels. On the export side, destination markets displayed markedly different volatility patterns.

China became the EU's dominant import source

Top import partners by value:

China's import value nearly €36M in 2025 now dominates the EU's inbound trade, accounting for roughly two thirds of total non-EU imports. Its low coefficient of variation (0.20) signals a steady, unbroken growth trajectory. Türkiye (+323 %) and India (+220 %) also posted strong gains, though from much smaller bases.

By contrast, traditional high-technology suppliers such as Japan, Switzerland and the United States all saw their shares decline. This pattern is consistent with Chinese manufacturers increasingly capturing the standard-specification segment of the market (reflecting the falling average import unit price), while EU producers focus on high-end, differentiated equipment.

Import concentration rose to historically high levels

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for imports jumped from 2,423 to 4,322 — well above the 2,500 threshold typically associated with high concentration. This is almost entirely driven by China's growing dominance. The export HHI also rose but remained at a moderate 960, reflecting a still-diversified but slightly less fragmented destination structure.

Export destinations diverge in stability

Top export partners by value:

• Stable anchors: The United States and the United Kingdom are the EU's most reliable export markets (CV of 0.23 and 0.24 respectively). US-bound exports even grew by 24 %, reaching €66.6M — making the US the EU's single largest extra-EU customer.
• Volatile and declining: Algeria collapsed from €32M to just €1.2M, one of the sharpest contractions in the dataset (CV 1.30). Egypt and Mexico also proved highly volatile.
• Price shocks were detected for exports to Brazil (+135 % unit price, 2023), Egypt (−60 %, 2022), and for imports from Türkiye (+79 %, 2017).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in stone-working machines (CN 846490) underwent a profound structural transformation. While domestic production more than doubled in value and quadrupled in unit count, the share of output reaching non-EU markets halved. Export volumes collapsed by 70 %, cushioned only by a doubling of unit values that signals an upward move in the product mix. On the import side, volumes tripled at declining average prices — a pattern consistent with Chinese manufacturers filling the standard-specification segment.

The trade surplus, though still solidly positive at €203M, shrank by 45 % from its 2015 level. Import concentration (HHI) climbed to 4,322, driven almost entirely by China's expanding share, creating a sourcing vulnerability that did not exist at the start of the period. Meanwhile, traditional EU export markets in North Africa and the Middle East proved unstable, with Algeria's trade collapsing entirely. The most dependable growth markets — the United States and, to a lesser extent, the United Kingdom — remain the EU's best-performing anchors.

Looking ahead, the key dynamics to monitor are Italy's ability to defend its export base against cost competition, Germany's continued inroads with higher-value equipment, and the EU's growing reliance on Chinese imports at a time of heightened geopolitical sensitivity around supply-chain concentration.