Market evolution: Steam turbine parts (CN 840690) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union maintains a significant and growing trade surplus in the market for parts of steam and other vapour turbines (Customs code 840690). Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade profile in this niche has undergone a notable transformation, characterized by rising unit values, shifting geographic partnerships, and evolving production patterns. This report examines the key trends in EU trade for steam turbine parts, interpreting the main dynamics that define its market evolution. The sector, crucial for both conventional power generation and emerging applications, shows a clear trajectory toward higher-value specialization within the EU bloc.

A Shift Toward Higher-Value Exports and a Strengthening Trade Surplus

The EU's export strategy for steam turbine parts has pivoted decisively toward higher-value products. While the total quantity exported decreased significantly, the total value increased, indicating a move up the value chain.

Export Values Increased Despite Falling Volumes

Between 2015 and 2025, EU export value for CN 840690 grew from €786.6 million to €851.3 million, an increase of 8.2%. In stark contrast, the export quantity fell by 29.0%, from 28,288 tonnes to 20,091 tonnes. This divergence is explained by a substantial 52.4% rise in the average export price per tonne, which climbed from €27,807 to €42,366.

The Trade Surplus Widened on the Back of Price Leadership

The EU’s trade balance in this sector strengthened, growing from €569.5 million in 2015 to €659.3 million in 2025, a 15.8% increase. This surplus expansion occurred even though import values saw a modest decline of 11.6% (from €217.1m to €191.9m). The EU’s net import reliance remained consistently negative, confirming its role as a net exporter throughout the period.

Internal Production Specialization Supported Export Value

Within the EU, production of steam turbine parts (as measured by Prodcom 28.11.31.00) showed robust growth, with production value increasing by 74.1% from €689 million in 2015 to an estimated €1.2 billion in 2025. Several member states demonstrated high specialization in 2025, led by Hungary, Italy, and Czechia, which likely contributed to the EU's capacity to export complex, high-value components.

Rising Import Concentration and Shifting Partner Dynamics

The geographic landscape of EU trade in this sector underwent a major reconfiguration, with a pronounced shift away from traditional partners toward emerging economies.

Imports from Asia Surged, While Traditional Suppliers Declined

China and India emerged as dominant import sources for the EU. Imports from China skyrocketed by 714.5% to €63.9 million, and those from India grew by 566.8% to €24.0 million. Conversely, imports from established partners like Japan (-74.9%), Switzerland (-64.3%), and Indonesia (-100.0%) fell dramatically.

Export Destinations Became More Concentrated

The concentration of EU export destinations increased, as indicated by a rise in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports from 549 to 912 (+66.1%). The United States solidified its position as the top export market, with the value of EU exports to the US growing by 117.1% to €198.7 million. The United Kingdom also saw a substantial increase (+255.7%), while exports to Iran fell sharply (-72.8%).

Key EU Member States Drove Export Performance

Germany, Italy, and Poland were the EU's leading exporters of steam turbine parts in 2025. However, the period saw notable shifts: exports from the Netherlands grew by an extraordinary 618.0%, while exports from Austria declined by 77.1%. Czechia also significantly increased its export share, reflecting its growing specialization.

Decreasing Trade Intensity but Persistent Volatility

Despite its strong net export position, the EU's overall trade engagement with the world in this specific product segment has moderated, while certain trade flows remain prone to shocks.

Trade and Export Propensity Showed a Long-Term Decline

The EU's trade intensity for CN 840690 fell from 78.4% in 2015 to 61.1% in 2025, a decrease of 22.1%. Similarly, export propensity dropped from 71.3% to 54.7% (-23.3%). This suggests the EU market has become somewhat less oriented towards extra-EU trade in this product, potentially due to shifts in intra-EU supply chains or domestic demand.

Volatility Was High, with Notable Export Price Shocks

Certain trade flows exhibited high volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV). Imports from Indonesia, Mexico, and Ukraine were particularly volatile. The data reveals several significant price shocks, notably a +200% price spike in EU exports to Türkiye centered in 2021 and a +368% spike in exports to Mexico in 2019. These could reflect the delivery of high-value, bespoke projects or disruptions in traditional supply chains.

The Market Structure Revealed Asymmetric Specialization

The EU's internal specialisation is highly asymmetric. Hungary, Italy, and Czechia showed very high relative comparative advantage (RSCA > 0.35), while several smaller member states (Lithuania, Estonia, Ireland) had no meaningful specialization. This indicates that the sector is concentrated in a few advanced manufacturing hubs within the EU.

Conclusion

The EU's market for steam and vapour turbine parts (CN 840690) evolved from 2015 to 2025 towards higher value, greater specialization, and shifted trade partnerships. The bloc successfully strengthened its trade surplus by focusing on exports of more valuable, sophisticated components, as evidenced by rising prices and a strong production base in key member states. This period was marked by a significant reorientation of trade flows, with a surge in imports from Asian economies like China and India, and a consolidation of export destinations, particularly the US and UK. While the EU's overall trade openness in this sector decreased, its net exporter status remains robust. The data points to a mature, capital-intensive industry where the EU retains a competitive advantage in high-value segments, even as it sources more standard components from global partners. The sector's dynamics are crucial to understand within the broader context of energy transition and industrial policy.