Market evolution: Squid and cuttlefish (CN 030749) — 2015–2025
Introduction
CN 030749 covers cuttlefish and squid that have been smoked, dried, salted, or placed in brine, whether or not shelled. This product category sits within the broader chapter of molluscs fit for human consumption (CN 0307) and bundles five sub‑products ranging from specific species such as Sepia officinalis cuttlefish (03074920) and Loligo squid (03074940) to a residual catch‑all category (03074980). See the full scope and definitions on the Trade Dashboard.
Over the period 2015–2025, EU trade with non‑EU countries in this code underwent a transformation of historic proportions: extra‑EU imports collapsed from approximately 200,000 tonnes (€749 million) in 2015 to just 377 tonnes (€1.9 million) in 2025, a decline of over 99% in both volume and value. Exports followed a similar, if less extreme, trajectory, falling from roughly 7,476 tonnes (€25.7 million) to 390 tonnes (€2.5 million). Meanwhile, EU domestic production — measured through PRODCOM — more than doubled over the same period. This report examines the key dynamics behind this dramatic restructuring.
1. The Near‑Disappearance of Extra‑EU Trade Flows
Import volumes and values collapsed across all major partners
The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the virtual evaporation of extra‑EU imports. Total import volume fell from 199,995 tonnes in 2015 to 377 tonnes in 2025 (−99.8%), while import value dropped from €749 million to €1.9 million (−99.7%). The peak was reached at €1,023 million (at some point during the period, given the maximum recorded), after which the decline accelerated relentlessly. View the full trade evolution.
All seven of the EU's principal import partners experienced catastrophic declines:
| Partner | 2015 value (€M) | 2025 value (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 117.6 | 0.008 | −100.0% |
| India | 114.9 | 0.315 | −99.7% |
| Falkland Islands | 103.6 | 4.1 | −96.1% |
| Thailand | 83.5 | 0.134 | −99.8% |
| China | 88.9 | 0.843 | −99.1% |
| South Africa | 47.4 | 0.0003 | −100.0% |
| United States | 27.7 | 0.00003 | −100.0% |
Morocco and South Africa — both major historical suppliers — saw their trade effectively reduced to zero. Even India and China, which maintained slightly higher residual volumes, recorded declines above 99%. Explore partner‑level detail.
EU exports followed a parallel downward path
While imports dominated the trade picture, EU exports to non‑EU countries also contracted sharply: from 7,476 tonnes (€25.7 million) in 2015 to 390 tonnes (€2.5 million) in 2025, a decline of −94.8% in volume and −90.3% in value. Spain, the EU's largest exporter for this product, saw its exports fall from €15.9 million to €0.9 million (−94.4%). Other significant exporters — Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands, Croatia, and France — all recorded declines exceeding 60%. Belgium was the sole exception among the top seven, actually increasing its export value from €0.24 million to €0.61 million (+150%), though from a very low base. See EU Member State export breakdown.
Spain and Italy dominated intra‑EU consumption patterns
Among EU Member States, Spain was by far the dominant importer of extra‑EU product, accounting for €374 million of the €749 million total in 2015 (49.8%), followed by Italy at €264 million (35.2%). Greece, Portugal, the Netherlands, France, and Belgium made up the remainder. By 2025, Spanish imports had fallen to €0.48 million and Italian imports to just €0.10 million. This concentration in Mediterranean Member States is consistent with the strong culinary traditions around dried and salted cephalopods in Southern Europe.
2. Domestic Production Surge and Supply‑Chain Reconfiguration
EU PRODCOM production more than doubled in parallel with import decline
Perhaps the most revealing dynamic in the data is the simultaneous growth of EU domestic production. According to PRODCOM figures, EU production of the relevant product categories rose from 226.7 million kg (€1,230 million) in the first recorded period to 499.3 million kg (€3,035 million) in the last — an increase of 120.3% in volume and 146.9% in value. See production volume evolution.
This strongly suggests a structural reconfiguration of supply chains: rather than importing already‑processed (dried, salted, smoked) cephalopods under CN 030749, the EU has increasingly imported raw or frozen material — likely under the sibling code CN 030743 (frozen cuttlefish and squid) — and carried out the processing domestically. The growing PRODCOM output captures this added processing activity within the EU.
Product‑level data confirms the breadth of the import collapse
The segment breakdown, available from 2017 onward, reveals that all five sub‑products within CN 030749 experienced steep declines in import volumes:
| Sub‑product | 2017 imports (t) | 2025 imports (t) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03074940 — Loligo squid | 4,339 | 108 | −97.5% |
| 03074980 — Other squid/cuttlefish | 853 | 264 | −69.1% |
| 03074920 — Sepia cuttlefish | 1,167 | 4 | −99.6% |
| 03074950 — Ommastrephes squid | 383 | 0 | −100.0% |
| 03074960 — European flying squid | 42 | 0.001 | −100.0% |
The residual category (03074980) proved the most resilient, declining by "only" 69%, while specialist species such as Sepia cuttlefish and Ommastrephes squid essentially vanished from import statistics. Compare sub‑product segments.
Specialisation is concentrated in a handful of Member States
Revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that EU production and trade in CN 030749 is highly concentrated geographically:
| Member State | RSCA | Product share of EU production |
|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 0.945 | 11.9% |
| Estonia | 0.891 | 5.8% |
| Spain | 0.779 | 46.6% |
| Greece | 0.380 | 1.5% |
| Netherlands | 0.151 | 19.7% |
Spain alone accounts for 46.6% of EU production value, confirming its central role not only as the EU's main consumer of these products but increasingly as its main producer. The Netherlands, with 19.7% of production, likely reflects its role as a processing and re‑distribution hub. View specialisation analysis.
3. Rising Unit Values, Concentration, and Volatility in a Shrinking Market
Unit values climbed significantly on both the import and export sides
Even as volumes contracted, unit values rose markedly. The average import price increased from €3,747/t in 2015 to €5,053/t in 2025 (+34.9%), while the average export price rose from €3,434/t to €6,409/t (+86.6%). This divergence — with export prices rising nearly twice as fast as import prices — may reflect a quality upgrading in EU exports (toward higher‑value processed forms) or a compositional shift toward more expensive sub‑products. At the sub‑product level, export prices for Ommastrephes squid (03074950) reached as high as €9,845/t in 2025, while Loligo squid (03074940) export prices climbed to €9,138/t, both well above historical averages. See general trade overview.
Market concentration increased as volumes shrank
The Herfindahl‑Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by partner country rose from 1,043 to 2,484 (+138.2%) over the period, moving the import market from a broadly diversified structure to one approaching moderate concentration. By volume, the HHI increase was even steeper (+167.9%). Similarly, the export HHI rose from 665 to 1,189 (+78.8%). View concentration indicators.
This rising concentration is a direct consequence of the trade collapse: as most partners dropped out, the remaining flows were distributed among fewer counterparties, making the residual trade more vulnerable to disruption from any single source.
Volatility remained elevated and isolated shocks emerged
Coefficient of variation (CV) values for trade with individual partners were consistently above 1.0 — indicating that the standard deviation of annual flows exceeded the mean — confirming extreme instability in bilateral trade relationships. For imports, Morocco (CV 2.25), India (CV 2.18), and Thailand (CV 2.17) showed the highest volatility. For exports, Bosnia and Herzegovina (CV 1.94) and Serbia (CV 1.98) led the rankings. Review volatility indicators.
Three notable shock events were detected in the data:
| Event | Type | Flow | Year | Shift | Abnormality score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | Price | Exports | 2022 | +85.3% | 368.0 |
| Montenegro | Price | Exports | 2022 | +156.2% | 196.2 |
| Thailand | Supply | Exports | 2018 | −100.0% | 104.8 |
The Angola and Montenegro price shocks in 2022 likely reflect the broader inflationary pressures and energy‑cost spikes that affected processed seafood markets during that year. The Thailand supply shock in 2018 — a complete cessation of EU exports to Thailand — may reflect a regulatory or market‑access change. See detected shock events.
Conclusion
The EU's external trade in dried, salted, and smoked cuttlefish and squid (CN 030749) underwent a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The near‑total collapse of extra‑EU imports — from roughly 200,000 tonnes to under 400 tonnes — was mirrored by a near‑doubling of EU domestic production, pointing to a fundamental reorganisation of supply chains: the EU has shifted from importing finished preserved cephalopod products to importing raw or frozen material and processing it domestically.
This restructuring carries important implications. On the one hand, the growth of domestic processing capacity enhances the EU's autonomy in this product category and reduces exposure to external supply disruptions. The net import reliance and trade intensity indicators remain at moderate levels. On the other hand, the residual extra‑EU trade that does persist is highly volatile and increasingly concentrated among fewer partners, making it vulnerable to sudden disruptions. Rising unit values suggest that whatever volumes continue to be traded internationally command higher prices, consistent with either quality upgrading or tighter supply conditions. The Spanish market — accounting for nearly half of EU production — remains the single most important node in this product's European value chain.